Down goes the Dow

[quote]Giles Corey wrote:

Love the way you guys claim to have properly timed the market after the fact.[/ quote]

Hi Giles.?

Brief faux rally yesterday morning. Followed by meltdown.

Euro markets down sharply today.

10 year T-note will be under 1 by April at this rate

VIX 32. Extraordinary. If it closes here it would be the highest close since 2011. Probably during the Grexit crisis.

Have to think we'll get a short term ferocious rally soon.

On the other hand, GS is calling for zero corp profit growth and possibly a recession.

....and the SPX is on its 200 day moving average. That was fast.

I’ve been about 90% cash, so I don’t mind this too much. I’d like to see another 5% lower on the Nasdaq.

markets are not functioning correctly - this could be very bad

Well, they haven’t been functioning correctly to the upside for a long time IMO...so that means that fairbis fair, or they are just now functioning correctly.

WRT price discovery, that is.

Maserati wrote:

Well, they haven’t been functioning correctly to the upside for a long time IMO...so that means that fairbis fair, or they are just now functioning correctly.

WRT price discovery, that is.

heh

I mean actual trade completion. Schwab's trading platform is not working right.

This just might end up being pretty bad, indeed.

I do not think that it is too late to save some skin. The narratives are coming apart, and in at least a few instances that I know of, humans have overridden algos this time. And if I know about some, there are sure to be many more instances of the same.

The “system”, the “market” as we have come to know it over the past while, is cracking. Liquidity means a lot, but it is probably not infinite.

agip wrote:

Maserati wrote:

Well, they haven’t been functioning correctly to the upside for a long time IMO...so that means that fairbis fair, or they are just now functioning correctly.

WRT price discovery, that is.

heh

I mean actual trade completion. Schwab's trading platform is not working right.

I heard that happened last time, with Vanguard. Makes you wonder. And worry.

I have wondered why they didn’t put limit down at 2 or 3%, and I concluded that anything around that level could be considered a soft landing, and managed accordingly.

Sure doesn’t seem soft, though.

Maserati wrote:

This just might end up being pretty bad, indeed.

I do not think that it is too late to save some skin. The narratives are coming apart, and in at least a few instances that I know of, humans have overridden algos this time. And if I know about some, there are sure to be many more instances of the same.

The “system”, the “market” as we have come to know it over the past while, is cracking. Liquidity means a lot, but it is probably not infinite.

selling at vix 32 is almost never a good idea.

and we've had many many viral outbreaks in the past...not one has done any intermediate or long term damage to the stock market or economy.

don't look now but we're about to reenter that 18 month trading range january 2018 to september 2019.

was that rise in the US a headfake?

are we going to be like the rest of the world, with an anemic, flat equity market?

Seems to me you buy dividend stocks here. Get a dividend if we can't bank on capital gains.

Ack I just bought. It was like jumping off the high dive.

Buying at vix 33 is almost a sure thing. But not quite.

VIX 36! the ship is lurching to port! Amazing stuff.

Lol agip - goooooooo!!!!!

Presumably you are already in the money ?

agip wrote:

VIX 36! the ship is lurching to port! Amazing stuff.

Spot price on VIX futures coming down. When VIX goes up that fast the it creates opportunists and favoring probabilities to the upside very quickly.