Back stateside awaiting open. Good chance I will sell b&h today. Like I told you about the big guy flying commercial, I am telling you now that everything is a serious mess. I will give no specifics, but watch for banks that fund ongoing business operations that are exposed.
It’s such a mess that I had to come back. Way back I opined repeatedly about the very few things that could bring down the markets, one of which was pandemic, along with sabotage, electrical infrastructure failure, etc.. Well, it looks like pandemic. It is everywhere, and nobody is doing anything. Get ready, you will get it.
This just has to run its course. There will be many, many disruptions. The circuit breakers and pumping are active, make use of them while it’s still worthwhile. We have a grace period, use it to stock up on crap you need.
I will be very busy today, what a PITA. Will let you know if I sold my remaining 3.5%. I am beginning the process of shutting down an office, withdrawing early. It just feels like the time is right.
Beware physical gold. Fakes are flooding everywhere at the moment. Real testing of big pieces is almost impossible.
A great contribution of modern medicine was the understanding of the causes and nature of disease. MUCH of the world has no idea, even today, and that ignorance is what is spreading the virus. People not going to work is a difficult thing to PR-over. Disbelief and distrust are spreading, and IMO critically undermining the confidence required to continue the inflated markets scam.
It’s not that stocks are a bad thing to own, it is that they are perceived as relatively uncontrollable. Even when someone sells, there is the idea of “cash” as being controllable—like you can walk down to the bank and demand it, and walk home with it. Same for metals. In crisis, people need to feel as though they have some control, and stocks will relatively sink. They don’t want somebody to have their back, they want a 360-degree FOV, or as close as they can get.
Bottom line, this is all a real drag. We will emerge, and maybe some dead wood activities will be cleared out, and some bloated ones trimmed. Time will tell. In 100% seriousness, I am considering an extended wilderness stay if things get too rocky. I can afford to sit this out in cash, RE, and some metal equivalents.
Is the whole virus thing overblown? IMO absolutely, from my personal perspective, and from a health perspective—but business is fragile at this point, because of nothing but good times for 10 years. Markets are more robust (managed), but rely on confidence that is rapidly becoming more difficult or impossible to maintain.