the idiot wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:...We certainly won’t stop down just 50%. ..
That's a bold prediction Igy. Do you know how many times the US markets have dropped more than 50% in the past couple hundred years? You're setting yourself up for an almost guaranteed failed prediction... Sure, it *might* happen. Of course the market WILL correct again, and potentially crash. But a greater than 50% drop is rare indeed.
Let me make another prediction. The west coast will get a very bad storm. In fact, it will be a hundred-year storm.
Kind of worthless without a time frame isn't it? If i really believed it was next later this week, i would do certain things, like probably start clearing out. But if i thought it would be any time in the next two years, i would stay in my home and job for the time being, of course.
Same with the market. And it has real life consequences. Without a time frame, you cannot make plans and develop strategies in the present. Those that have realized this simple insight have been rewarded significantly in recent years and at the present. That, in and of itself, would be sufficient for most to reconsider the folly of such an approach....
ANd i know: They say this before every big storm.