That thought is necessary to support a bubble, especially one this massive. You could be right of course, but not if the past, or financial metrics means anything at all. If so, might as well wipe out anything learned in business school.
That thought is necessary to support a bubble, especially one this massive. You could be right of course, but not if the past, or financial metrics means anything at all. If so, might as well wipe out anything learned in business school.
What business school did you attend? MBA?
Oklahoma State University
wondering wrote:
What business school did you attend? MBA?
How about you?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
wondering wrote:
What business school did you attend? MBA?
How about you?
State school for undergrad and masters.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
That thought is necessary to support a bubble, especially one this massive. You could be right of course, but not if the past, or financial metrics means anything at all. If so, might as well wipe out anything learned in business school.
I'm already right. It's gone up so far, even a downturn can't make much of a dent on all the appreciation. And a downturn, if one were to come, just becomes an opportunity for others to find good entry points.
Racket you are probably right about AMZN, but it is all intertwined.
B&h is now at 24.6% annualized, over 10 months, through the virus. That is absolutely ridiculous. But, I told you so.
Seattle is right, there is doom fatigue—which is also a natural cycle. Nobody cares, nobody wants to hear it. It is not JUST the presence of “irrational exuberance”, it is also the absence of “irrational pessimism”. Fair is fair.
Munger is just an anachronism, pining for the good old days when what HE knew carried the day. It’s now a different day, and he has failed to adapt. He is right that there is no such thing as magic—what he is wrong about is which leg of the chair will break. IMO it will be the value of the dollar. In fact, it already has been, some very short-term possible deflation in oil and certain consumer goods notwithstanding. Even at that, anyone remember the price of gas 20 years ago? It was close to a buck. I remember getting it in the midwest for under a buck.
Munger needs to stop whining and make useful comments. He wasn’t whining while he was making money. There are those of is who have made money in both eras. Sure he is still making some, but both his and Buffet’s cachés are gone. All they are left with is power—which is a lot, but apparently not enough for them. Like all of us, they also need to feel that they know something, and they like to feel that what they know is still how the world works.
Their day has come, and they are failing the test. They should stick to managing their own businesses as they see fit, and see how well that works out for them.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
That thought is necessary to support a bubble, especially one this massive. You could be right of course, but not if the past, or financial metrics means anything at all. If so, might as well wipe out anything learned in business school.
If the past means anything at all, then we should expect a 10% rise in the market this year since that is historically what happens in a presidential election year with an incumbent running.
History Anne wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
That thought is necessary to support a bubble, especially one this massive. You could be right of course, but not if the past, or financial metrics means anything at all. If so, might as well wipe out anything learned in business school.
If the past means anything at all, then we should expect a 10% rise in the market this year since that is historically what happens in a presidential election year with an incumbent running.
I am sure the Trump Administration will do everything in their power to make it so.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1229192889634369536
idk what this is because I have embedded links and images aggressively blocked (as you all should) but keep in mind economics is on par with gender studies in terms of scientific credibility.
Just for you:
“Charlie Munger issued a grave warning about the economy.
Berkshire Hathaway Is Building “A Fortress”
In 2007, Berkshire had 58.9% as much cash as it had equity securities. As of the holding company’s report for Q3 2019, that figure is 58.1%.”
“keep in mind economics is on par with gender studies in terms of scientific credibility”
I am assuming the same goes for Fed operations that investors are relying on to save their bacon,
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
“keep in mind economics is on par with gender studies in terms of scientific credibility”
I am assuming the same goes for Fed operations that investors are relying on to save their bacon,
How about this factoid: Amazon has 37,000 job listings open, perhaps it most ever. How does that portend for the economy? Spin that one, Zero Hedge.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
You could be right of course, but not if the past, or financial metrics means anything at all.
It's called refusal for the past 9 years to accept "It's Different This Time".
No worries, you'll probably get another chance in a few years. Unfortunately, not like the one you've just missed.
You’ll be crying at Dow 7,500.
?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
You’ll be crying at Dow 7,500.
?
Igy, you ARE crying at Dow 29,500.
And you have BEEN crying for a long time now.
Seriously man...the utility of your thinking has been invalidated, for many—and the longer the rise continues, the more for whom it is invalidated. As I said, even a realized 50% loss at this point would leave many ahead of where your thinking would have landed them—and that is for a simplistic b&h person.
This, of course, from a guy who is currently less than 4% in US stocks.?
Dow being a market cap weighted index will be less impacted than S&P 500 and NASDAQ where the impact of indexing will be greater. We certainly won’t stop down just 50%. Looking at the charts I’m guessing the downside target somewhere around 8,000-11,000 most likely. As I said before, bear markets don’t just mean revert, they mean invert.
?♂️