“None of these concerns will matter until complacency gets punished for in the end math matters, valuations matter and technicals matter. And then the age of hubris will come undone.”
—Sven Henrichs, The Northman Trader
“None of these concerns will matter until complacency gets punished for in the end math matters, valuations matter and technicals matter. And then the age of hubris will come undone.”
—Sven Henrichs, The Northman Trader
“And this great unwind will not last a month or a year, but many years as all the excesses will have to work themselves through the system and all the systematic buy programs will turn into systematic sell programs that will be just as relentless on the way down as they were on the way up.
The very notion of the permanent can kicking we are witnessing now will reveal itself to have been a fantasy. People forget that 2019 and into 2020 came about because of systemic failure of epic proportions. The single one time central bankers tried to tighten blew up in their faces. And the Fed’s forced re-expansion of their balance sheet has now bestowed this blow-off top that has pushed asset prices the farthest distance above the underlying size of the economy that we’ve ever seen. A perversion of the financial system that has created wealth for the few not seen since the 1920s.”
—Sven Henrichs, The Northman Trader
Feels like i'm reading the third testament. At what point do we.....
Oh, nevermind.
Sorry, only 90 years ago. And last 20 years NASDAQ -83%, S&P 500 -54%, then -59%. But of course a since of history is never present in abubble of this proportion.
Oh, never mind....
“a sense of history”
seattle prattle wrote:
Feels like i'm reading the third testament. At what point do we.....
Oh, nevermind.
??
Thou shalt not buy stupid investments, verily I say you must be poor again.
Thou shalt not buy stupid investments that someone else is not willing to buy for more than what you paid for it.
Touche ?
Maserati wrote:One more hint: I saved your hide once in a regrettable affair ...
mas, it seems from your hints that we may have been friends, or at least friendly, lo those long years ago, but my horrible memory (which was always spotty, but getting worse with age and the inevitable onset of dementia...) is preventing me from piecing it together. If by chance we cross paths in some other way, please spill the beans. There's some chance we would attend the 35th in '23; we only ever attended one reunion, the 25th, and I went under protest (spouse wanted to go), having no interest, but it turned out to be really enjoyable reconnecting with old friends. Old conversations from grad picked easily up like there had been no gap at all, and it was nice to catch up with people generally. The downside, though, was that in spite of best efforts (me and spouse studied yearbooks to be able to remember people), I still embarrassed myself; one guy approached me at the bar, super excited to say hello, and I drew a complete blank, having no idea who it was - his face was not stored anywhere in my grey matter. I still don't remember how I was connected to him...
Back to the subject at hand... I remember reading a book on investing (I can't remember the name or its author), and the author had presented and defended a fairly aggressive style of investing, based on his vast knowledge, experience and analysis. In an interview, he was asked whether he followed that style in his own investments, and his response was something like, "well, no, I still need to sleep at night." I know in my own case, the balance I've chosen let's me sleep at night, whereas in the past with riskier allocations during periods of market turmoil I remember NOT sleeping very well.
How is everyone else sleeping at night these days in these crazy markets?
Does the fact that it's nearing midnight and i can tell you the current futures market prices you any clue?
But seriously, I sleep fine when the markets are up like this simply because such a buffer is built into it, before any losses would possibly be realized.
Good night.
seattle prattle wrote:Does the fact that it's nearing midnight and i can tell you the current futures market prices you any clue?
Hahaha, that's what I thought. And I'm laughing WITH you, not AT you... :-)
It will be interesting to see how recent investors react when things get really bad. Nothing sustained to the downside has happened in almost 11 years.
“ And the Fed’s forced re-expansion of their balance sheet has now bestowed this blow-off top that has pushed asset prices the farthest distance above the underlying size of the economy that we’ve ever seen.”
Only in Trump’s world are lies accepted without repercussions.
“Trump’s world” of intimidation of the Fed and cheerleading the market. I thought you would approve.
?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
It will be interesting to see how recent investors react when things get really bad. Nothing sustained to the downside has happened in almost 11 years.
So I see we've changed the tune from the "Bear market rally"?
That's okay, I understand. Just worth noting. But i'll be on the lookout for that, what was it, "the great unwinding" of the "age of hubris", for we have seen a "perversion of the financial system that has created wealth for the few not seen since the 1920s."
Good stuff. Any day now.....
seattle prattle wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
It will be interesting to see how recent investors react when things get really bad. Nothing sustained to the downside has happened in almost 11 years.
So I see we've changed the tune from the "Bear market rally"?
That's okay, I understand. Just worth noting. But i'll be on the lookout for that, what was it, "the great unwinding" of the "age of hubris", for we have seen a "perversion of the financial system that has created wealth for the few not seen since the 1920s."
Good stuff. Any day now.....
Most will be totally unprepared when it does. Maybe you’ll be one of the exceptions. I hope so.
Futures up, notwithstanding virus news.
The smoothing function is working well—and why shouldn’t it? Why should a few sick people, or a quarantined Chinese city, affect every single US public company? Why should a handful of Iranian missiles aimed at nothing change the price of some Idaho-based REIT?
It shouldn’t. The effects of irrational panic are being buffered/removed from the market, which is a step in the right direction, IMO.
Yes I know, 14 cities, 40 million people.
Is it an epic disaster? Not so far. 26 dead, I think. Less than a Chicago weekend.
Pandemic (which this is not) was one of the handful of things that I listed that I thought could crush the markets, by crushing the economy.
Maserati wrote:
The smoothing function is working well—and why shouldn’t it?
...wut?