Kindergarten for Investing wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Seattle prattle (on a different, read: faster, browser) wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Seattle prattle (on a different, read: faster, browser) wrote:
Igy, if an investor has chosen to be out of the market for the last several years, they lost out. Can we admit that much? Regardless of what tomorrow or next year may hold.
I think the frustration stems from a perception that you feel anyone who has been invested in the markets these last few years is a loser who just hasn't come to terms with it yet.
I have stated multiple times that it is a mistake to be out of the market. A portfolio of 20% stocks, 15% alternatives, and 65% bonds is up 7% on the year with far less risk than 60% stock and 40% bond portfolio that might be up twice that return with three times the risk.
My view is investors as a class believe they are nibble enough to reduce exposure in advance of a downturn. That is not the history of the market. So, my view is you reduce your exposure at stretched valuations, because the timing will not matter.
The Fed saved the market this year with three rate cuts and $260 Billion in QE. Yet, the conventional view is the market has less risk 12/11/2019 at 3,140 than 12/24/2018 at 2,346. How can that be when they are taking these extraordinary measures? I find people very delusional and don’t mind taking your arguments.
That does not mean I wish you or anyone ill. It is an intellectual argument only. However, there is a poster using my employer’s name, my wife’s name, and my son’s name. Shocking at first, but he only does himself harm.
Igy
Only 20% stocks is fairly meager, no?
And how about when a market trades for so long on what has been considered (by some) 'stretched valuations" that it starts to question if that standard should be reconsidered?
I;m just saying, how fair is it to advise anyone to be only 20% in the market, in light of what a wealth builder it has been both historically over the history of the stock market, within our lifetimes, and certainly within the last decade?
History of the stock market tells you an investment in stocks will yield nothing over the next ten years. The history of the market also tells you your second sentences is very common, and a repeated belief in a bubble. Unfortunately investors make the mistake repeatedly. Of course that Zeitgeist is required to manufacture the greatest asset bubble in history.
History shows stocks will yield an average of around 10% per year for the next ten years.
https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/14EC083E-1D8C-11EA-A37B-63BB81D511AD?__twitter_impression=true
