Bet it is a loser by Nee Years Day.
Bet it is a loser by Nee Years Day.
When?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Bet it is a loser by Nee Years Day.
Specifically why?
Seems like a lot of competing ideas here Mas. Not really clear to me what you're trying to say or what points you're trying to get across.
Just musing about my ideas of the future, based on some current realities that are easily overlooked.
Of course nothing has changed with the nature of human action, but there have been recent changes in degree and speed, which are significant. McLuhan would have enjoyed this algo era, where his musings of decades ago are bearing more fruit than ever.
My aim was to describe why I’m in, why my exposure is limited, when I plan to get out, what my alternatives will be, and how society/currency/markets will be shaped in the future.
FYI my art continues to “out-perform” the markets by a huge measure, especially the impressionist paintings. I still won’t sell, but insurance is always on my asss. There are still people with money, looking for speculative places other than the equity markets. I am also now considering a place on a Mediterranean island, but they all end up being strategic in any time of conflict.
If I am still holding on new year’s day, I will have taken Igy’s bet. Things are a bit tense, all that is really going now is QE, and my projections are running out of good key events.
Maserati wrote:
FYI my art continues to “out-perform” the markets by a huge measure, especially the impressionist paintings.
You know those sectors are always the first to go in a recession right? And they get absolutely wrecked too. Art, collector cars, all those rich people collection item markets (including alpacas even!) can get crushed by like 50% or more once money starts getting tight.
Maserati wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Bet it is a loser by Nee Years Day.
Specifically why?
The Fed has cut interest rates and re-started QE for a reason. The economic cycle has peaked. I believe this is a rally that will be sold by year end.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Maserati wrote:
Specifically why?
The Fed has cut interest rates and re-started QE for a reason. The economic cycle has peaked. I believe this is a rally that will be sold by year end.
Or it could just keep going up. There's really not much for bears to be excited about. Trump will make a deal with China or at least string the market along enough to keep things as strong as possible into next year's election. Consumer spending around the holiday's will probably break records (like it always does). Maybe, maybe, next Spring we'll see some tension in the markets but right now seasonal employment and spending is about to go way up.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The economic cycle has peaked. I believe this is a rally that will be sold by year end.
WOW! We've never heard that before.
Racket wrote:
Maserati wrote:
FYI my art continues to “out-perform” the markets by a huge measure, especially the impressionist paintings.
You know those sectors are always the first to go in a recession right? And they get absolutely wrecked too. Art, collector cars, all those rich people collection item markets (including alpacas even!) can get crushed by like 50% or more once money starts getting tight.
That is not universally true. It depends on what you have, and if someone specific wants it. There is a huge private marketplace for certain artists and certain histories. It is about networks. The irony is that although I will always be fine with the art, it would be the very last thing I would sell, along with jewelry. And no, I don’t have some hundred-million-dollar pieces, although I do hold out hope for the authentication of a small dutch master that remains a mystery?
The SPIVA scorecards continue to provide powerful evidence of the persistent failure of active management’s ability to generate alpha (risk-adjusted outperformance). In particular, they serve to highlight the canard that active management is successful in inefficient markets like small-cap stocks and emerging markets.
We continue to see a persistent flow of assets from actively to passively managed funds. As the scorecards and countless academic studies have documented, the odds of identifying an actively managed fund that will outperform an appropriate benchmark are exceedingly small.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Maserati wrote:
Specifically why?
The Fed has cut interest rates and re-started QE for a reason. The economic cycle has peaked. I believe this is a rally that will be sold by year end.
The old economic cycle has peaked, yes—which now bears very little relation to financial asset prices, as you know. If you believe that QE works, markets should continue to rise.
In your opinion, what will change by new year’s?
purple martin wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The economic cycle has peaked. I believe this is a rally that will be sold by year end.
WOW! We've never heard that before.
How about this chart bird man? Have you seen it before?
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2-4_1.png?itok=4ob_4BN7Yes Igy, that is why I have always left profits on the table by getting out early. Worked for me, ymmv
HD continues to sink, lol
Maserati wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The Fed has cut interest rates and re-started QE for a reason. The economic cycle has peaked. I believe this is a rally that will be sold by year end.
The old economic cycle has peaked, yes—which now bears very little relation to financial asset prices, as you know. If you believe that QE works, markets should continue to rise.
In your opinion, what will change by new year’s?
Fundamentals argue for lower asset prices. So a continued market rise is dependent upon speculators. Monday when the NASDAQ was hitting new highs 100 stocks in the index were hitting new 52 week lows. Largest market cap companies used to drive the index. Certainly more reasons to believe it will continue. I just would not bet on it, but hope it works out for you.
If anybody is interested, I did some quick looking and founf the price box/trailing loss trading system I was asking about:
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/07/darvas-box.asp
It is true that he made most of his money during a year-and-a-half period during which markets rose over 50%, and that he benefitted from stock splits, but his system had some similarities to my former one, so I remembered it, as the required environment for mine to work has shown some breakdown.
I notice that his worked only in bull markets but hey, we’re still there for a bit. I might give it a bit of a shot, using my own estimation of sectors and stocks in place of his. Sounds like fun, I am always willing to try to find the right tool for the right situation.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2-4_1.png?itok=4ob_4BN7
Someone needs to teach those Russian trolls how to spell.
BTW thanks Racket, your mention of the 3-day rule triggered my memory of the Darvas box.
From 12/20/2018:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Buy low, sell high wrote:
Smart investors welcome this.
No, smart investors know this is not a buy on the dip opportunity.