Idiot move wrote:
I got out of the market when the S and P 500 was at about 2990 a month-ish ago because all indicators suggested it wouldn't go any higher the rest of the year and very well could go much lower. Now the S and P 500 is at 3100 and keeps going up. I feel like a fool as I've normally done a very good job of just buying and holding, but I didn't stick to the plan this time, and it has bitten me. Now I'm wondering how/when to get back in when the market keeps hitting record highs almost every single day. This can't last, but it could potentially be a runaway that goes up another 4% or something before stagnating (or dropping?).
What am I to do?
Okay, brother, i face this dilemna all the time, and here's what i do.
I way everything. In your case, you have massive seller's regret. But a voice in the back of your head is saying, bro, you sold for a reason, and the reasoning is still pretty sound, only it hasn't played out the way you thought, at least not yet....
So I've got a reserved buy signal, so what i would do is buy back a portion. You aren't certain on this move, so only venture a percentage representative of how certain you are that your investment will pay off. For me, that means a small trade right away, say maybe only 5% of your cash position, and maybe double that tomorrow if things don't fall. When you feel comfortable with your level of exposure, hold.