Of course within days of that Tweet Powell was talking cutting and stopping QT. I believe shortly after the X-Mas Eve drop. That and Mnuchin’s calls to the SIFI.
Of course within days of that Tweet Powell was talking cutting and stopping QT. I believe shortly after the X-Mas Eve drop. That and Mnuchin’s calls to the SIFI.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Of course within days of that Tweet Powell was talking cutting and stopping QT. I believe shortly after the X-Mas Eve drop. That and Mnuchin’s calls to the SIFI.
yes, exactly - almost precisely at a very sharp V shaped bottom, hickey was calling on people to sell everything. People pay for this guy's advice. Or at least they used to.
but ok sure, hickey might say that he was assuming the fed wouldn't start loosening.
I bet Ken Fisher wishes a year ago he turned in that ugly tie and polyester suit for some retirement lounge ware.
agip wrote:
the 2019 market is having its second best year since 2003, up around 25%.
All because major indexes pulled the first ever V recovery in history. The NASDAQ was literally in a bear market and rallied itself out within a day
agip wrote:
As some of you know, I like to keep track of predictions and review them the last few weeks of the year to see how people did.
Just to start warming up the room, here's a...a...2018 doozy.
the 2019 market is having its second best year since 2003, up around 25%.
I remember listending to this guy hickey and his permabearishness as far back as 2001. It never stops.
https://twitter.com/htsfhickey/status/1075542488620912640?s=20
I dislike arbitrary calendar year measurements.
On the S&P, 2018 calendar year was down about 8.5%, all at the end of the year, after having reached a high of 2930 in mid-Sept.. With 22.5% gain YTD, that gives a 14% gain over 2 years, which averages out to 7%/yr.
If you're talking about highs reached, the current one is about 5% higher than the 2018 one.
Make no mistake that is still great, but for people to go around saying that "the markets have just gone up 25-30%" is misleading and essentially worthless.
And still, certainly not a "bear market" as Hickey projected.
It is beyond me why he thought the timescale would be longer--and no, I won't now read the article to find a description of his error. He seems to have little understanding of power and politics.
Interesting piece on Boeing stock buybacks that made billionaires of management. Blood money of sorts. Of course this disease has infected Wall Street. One reason I may vote for Warren if she becomes the nominee.
https://www.epsilontheory.com/when-was-i-radicalized-boeing-edition/
Stock market currently displaying retard strength at latest round of "maybe sort of tarries and deal with China might possibly happen could be I don't know won't happen tomorrow definitely will."
Racket wrote:
Stock market currently displaying retard strength at latest round of "maybe sort of tarries and deal with China might possibly happen could be I don't know won't happen tomorrow definitely will."
Waiting for the markets to swing again on "Reports that rollback of tariffs will happen slightly slower than the reports we said earlier today"
Market keeps hitting record highs almost daily, sometimes rising more than 0.5% in a day... Been rising almost daily for a month straight. And why??? Something strange seems to be going on. I don't know what, but none of this makes sense to me.
bonds getting CRUSHED here.
ouch. Moderate and conservative portfolios are going to lose money today even as the stock marlet flies.
Sounds like bond people are betting the trade wars are over.
Confused Investor wrote:
Market keeps hitting record highs almost daily, sometimes rising more than 0.5% in a day... Been rising almost daily for a month straight. And why??? Something strange seems to be going on. I don't know what, but none of this makes sense to me.
the market is not a precise speedometer.
sometimes is predicts, sometimes it just randomly moves all over the place.
the end of the trade wars and brexit maybe not happening are part of it here...and probnably the market is seeing better times 6 months away.
agip wrote:
bonds getting CRUSHED here.
ouch. Moderate and conservative portfolios are going to lose money today even as the stock marlet flies.
Sounds like bond people are betting the trade wars are over.
and as of today, looks like little chance that the US will join europe with negative interest rates.
CNN's Fear index now over 90/100. 75+ signals "Extreme Greed". Maybe there's hope for the VIX.
I think this thread needs to be retitled "Up goes the Dow." Anyone heavily into the market is sitting pretty. Igy - do you see the Dow retreating to 13,000 anytime soon?
Sally Vix wrote:
I think this thread needs to be retitled "Up goes the Dow." Anyone heavily into the market is sitting pretty. Igy - do you see the Dow retreating to 13,000 anytime soon?
Define soon? If soon is two years yes, if soon is two months no. Certainly the institutions are juicing this market for no fundamental reason. It is getting more expensive and dangerous, not the other way around.
Confused Investor wrote:
Market keeps hitting record highs almost daily, sometimes rising more than 0.5% in a day... Been rising almost daily for a month straight. And why??? Something strange seems to be going on. I don't know what, but none of this makes sense to me.
QE, not something strange. Hundreds of billions in a few weeks—where do you think it goes? It is just a few actors bidding things up, and not all things, at that.
It is because ultimately the Fed is the beeyotch of politicians—something that has been true for a long time now. IMO the current dynamic reaches back to the oracle.
Markets must rise, interest rates must be kept low, inflation must be under-reported, employment over-reported, and growth carefully fudged in order for current systems to be maintained as systems.
The casualties will be the dollar, and the little guy who holds and uses it.
I will get out before the election, and I may miss a good opportunity, but I don’t want the risk. But until that time, this leg up is predictable and valuable.
QE will continue, rates will not rise, etc for a while yet—and certain equities will elevate.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Sally Vix wrote:
I think this thread needs to be retitled "Up goes the Dow." Anyone heavily into the market is sitting pretty. Igy - do you see the Dow retreating to 13,000 anytime soon?
Define soon? If soon is two years yes, if soon is two months no. Certainly the institutions are juicing this market for no fundamental reason. It is getting more expensive and dangerous, not the other way around.
Mark your calendars. Igy has just called a Dow of 13,000 by November of 2021. If Igy gets this right, we will all need to apologize to him.
Sally Vix wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Define soon? If soon is two years yes, if soon is two months no. Certainly the institutions are juicing this market for no fundamental reason. It is getting more expensive and dangerous, not the other way around.
Mark your calendars. Igy has just called a Dow of 13,000 by November of 2021. If Igy gets this right, we will all need to apologize to him.
That’s fair. I will go one step further, if wrong I will post a photo of me eating “humble pie.”
your point is that average valuations, low interest rates, nassively profitable companies, high consumer spending, forescasts of rising earnings, low inflation, global peace...are not relevant to stock prices rising.
That the all-purpose answer to rising stock values is...QE.
I mean come on.