The actual K5 wrote:
K5 detector wrote:
Thanks for confirming what we all knew, Sonny Boy / wasp / Igy.
Wow are you dumb
Oh, the irony!
The actual K5 wrote:
K5 detector wrote:
Thanks for confirming what we all knew, Sonny Boy / wasp / Igy.
Wow are you dumb
Oh, the irony!
The actual K5 wrote:
K5 detector wrote:
Thanks for confirming what we all knew, Sonny Boy / wasp / Igy.
Wow are you dumb
He is calling you dumb because you forgot to list one of his primary handles "K 5"
Wow - this thing is a coiled spring. Buy buy buy.
All time highs and surging.
agip wrote:
Wow - this thing is a coiled spring. Buy buy buy.
All time highs and surging.
Stocks at an ATH should be bearish because it should indicate less chance the Fed will actually cut rates because everything is looking good and the economy is expanding. That would cause stocks to crash because they're hooked on low interest rates, but if stocks crash then that would increase the chance the Fed will cut the rate again and so that would cause stocks to go back up to ATH.
I have successfully proved that stocks never go down.
I would think that after a year like this, the big guys would start locking in profits for the year and stall the whole thing out, especially with all the uncertainty and the threat of a recession looming.
Must be the expectation of a trade deal (or more likely, in lieu of that, loosening of further tarifs, etc). Or another rate cut?
seattle prattle wrote:
I would think that after a year like this, the big guys would start locking in profits for the year and stall the whole thing out, especially with all the uncertainty and the threat of a recession looming.
Must be the expectation of a trade deal (or more likely, in lieu of that, loosening of further tarifs, etc). Or another rate cut?
I think it's just time doing its thing. The market was stalled out for a year and half. Earnings haven't been growing so that makes some sense...but really a market that goes nowhere for a year and a half is well a coiled spring and usually moves up after.
As for specifics...PMI numbers have started to move back up in emerging markets, brexit is not contagious and may be in an end state, the US consumer is fine and dandy, interest rates are very very low, analysts see earnigns starting to rise again pretty soon, current 3Q earnings reports are coming in better than expected (again), and probably the market is assuming trump will sign a trade deal with china because he needs some good news desperately. Before the election. Remember he is losing pretty badly in the head to head polls. Can't poll over 40-42 against anyone.
Ben Hunt in “Yeah, It’s Still Water” writes “about financialization—the zombiefication of our economy and the oligarchification of our society.” Hunt uses TXN as an example to reach his conclusion. Worth a read:
https://www.epsilontheory.com/yeah-its-still-water/?utm_campaign=3Dwebsite&=
Agip, emerging markets have done so poorly for a number of years now. I have avoided almost all at all cost. Do you see them making a comeback anytime soon?
you're asking ME to make a prediction with a time on it? ME? heh. Won't do it.
But in theory, since emerging markets have gone up very little over 10 years they should have a very good future. Eventually. When whatever is holding them back stops holding them back.
But putting a time on a stock market prediction is a fool's game, right?
I do have a slight overweight on emerging markets tho...I don't want to miss their run when it comes.
agip wrote:
Sally Vix wrote:
Agip, emerging markets have done so poorly for a number of years now. I have avoided almost all at all cost. Do you see them making a comeback anytime soon?
you're asking ME to make a prediction with a time on it? ME? heh. Won't do it.
But in theory, since emerging markets have gone up very little over 10 years they should have a very good future. Eventually. When whatever is holding them back stops holding them back.
But putting a time on a stock market prediction is a fool's game, right?
I do have a slight overweight on emerging markets tho...I don't want to miss their run when it comes.
They have done so poorly for so long. Why would anyone go that route when the American markets are going like gangbusters. I own a lot of mutual funds and ETFs and basically quit buying emerging markets 10 years ago.
Sally Vix wrote:
agip wrote:
you're asking ME to make a prediction with a time on it? ME? heh. Won't do it.
But in theory, since emerging markets have gone up very little over 10 years they should have a very good future. Eventually. When whatever is holding them back stops holding them back.
But putting a time on a stock market prediction is a fool's game, right?
I do have a slight overweight on emerging markets tho...I don't want to miss their run when it comes.
They have done so poorly for so long. Why would anyone go that route when the American markets are going like gangbusters. I own a lot of mutual funds and ETFs and basically quit buying emerging markets 10 years ago.
well that's exactly why you *would* buy emerging markets. Because people have given up on them. Which means their prices might be lower than they should be. And when they start moving up again - as they inevitably will at some point - everyone like you who has ignored them will have to rush back in at ever higher prices.
The fundies are good...they have actual legit growing populations, economies growing at more than our 2%, growing middle classes, ability to use most of the tech our companies are able to use, can take advantage of low interest rates, etc.
When they do rise 25% in a year we'll look back at a time like this and ask ourselves 'why the heck did I not buy then?'
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/not%20a%20bull%20market.jpg?itok=N3nbHrR0
agreed...it has not been a bull market for a while now. But we are hitting all time highs. The market will break out to a new bull market at some point...now is as good a time as any.
agip wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/not%20a%20bull%20market.jpg?itok=N3nbHrR0agreed...it has not been a bull market for a while now. But we are hitting all time highs. The market will break out to a new bull market at some point...now is as good a time as any.
I was thinking about this.
How would you like to top off what has been claimed to be the longest bull market in history? A bear market downturn? A sell-off of all or most of the gains?
So we get a flat market for a year or so. But after the l-o-n-g run-up, is that so bad? Effectively just takes a little of the gradient out of the ascent, if you follow me.
Sure beats this time last year.
agip wrote:
Sally Vix wrote:
Agip, emerging markets have done so poorly for a number of years now. I have avoided almost all at all cost. Do you see them making a comeback anytime soon?
you're asking ME to make a prediction with a time on it? ME? heh. Won't do it.
But in theory, since emerging markets have gone up very little over 10 years they should have a very good future. Eventually. When whatever is holding them back stops holding them back.
But putting a time on a stock market prediction is a fool's game, right?
I do have a slight overweight on emerging markets tho...I don't want to miss their run when it comes.
You could have said that (about missing their run) five years ago and would have been the wiser.
Irony Mann wrote:
The actual K5 wrote:
Wow are you dumb
Oh, the irony!
This guy has got to be on the spectrum. High up on it.
After being fully out of the (equities) market for several months, I took the plunge back in this morning.
This will undoubtedly result in a market downturn.
You have been warned.
"When they do rise 25% in a year we'll look back at a time like this and ask ourselves 'why the heck did I not buy then?"
You could have said that five years ago. They have done nothing since then either. If you had bought into them you would have missed out on record highs. I think it would be foolish to buy into them until they have a more promising future. Sure, like any investment they can skyrocket (just like the bitcoin did) but I prefer to place my bets on the overall market.
truth, Although they have made 3% per year for the last five years. It's not nothing. BUt underperformance, certainly.
what is going to happen eventually is what happened in 2000-2010. For ten years the US market went nowhere and the emerging markets went up 10% per year or so. Massive outperformance. Then from 2010-2020 that reversed.
I'm sure it will swing the other way, although probably not as massively.
But you are right...I could have said the same thing 5 or 10 years ago and would have been wrong then.