Ghost of Igloi wrote:
You'd have to be pretty thick at this point to expect progress on trade talks. Trump is not going to budge unless things get VERY bad, and he'll try to put some spin on it where he's supposedly a "genius" and "savior." Not trying to be political, but it affects stocks. Xi is not going to budge because at this point Trump's future as president is looking at least moderately uncertain, and Xi is going to rule China essentially for life. He can just wait out Trump as whoever replaces Trump will likely cede or call a truce or something since pretty much everyone alive in 2019 knows tariffs are bad. I expect the trade war to continue as long as Trump is in office, and the consequences will become more and more pronounced. We will look back on this time 10+ years from now and identify Trump and his trade war as the primary cause to the coming recession and probable stock market dip (probably of 20-30%).
On an unrelated note, has anyone else noticed that more and more outlets and stories are being published about a coming recession? Seems like I see five per day. Can't tell if that's biased due to my internet activity or not.