Since 1/26/2018 MSCI All Country World Index down -4.81%.
So sorry Toucan.
Down goes the Dow
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Big Dog Investments wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Hey no kiss of death from me Big guy. If you think a stock that is losing -$5.31 a share is a good gamble (note gamble not investment) then OK.
I obviously think it’s a good gamble. I even said as much. And now I think it is an even better gamble since you chimed in on the down side (as usual). Your reputation as a contrarian indicator is well deserved.
And your reputation for buying fundamentally flawed investments is well deserved. Let’s track this one and see how the contrarian indicator works.
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/uber
UBER hits a new all-time low at $30.41.
This isn’t even fun anymore....like CHK. -
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Dow 26,616 1/26/2018, and Dow 9/26/2019 26,890. Same level last 20 months; no better than a CD as I have said.
Since we're cherry picking time frames, why don't you re-cap :
Jan 2011 - present
" 2012 "
" 2013 "
" 2014 "
" 2015 "
" 2016 "
" 2017 " -
The trend is not your friend bird man.
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Since 12/26/2018 MSCI All Country World Index up 16%.
Toucan so happy. -
Earnings Scorecard: For Q3 2019 (with 14 of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results), 12 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 6 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Dow 26,616 1/26/2018, and Dow 9/26/2019 26,890. Same level last 20 months; no better than a CD as I have said.
Only time will tell how investments during this time period will pan out. But clearly people investing in stock from 2011-2017 and have moved out of the market since then did very well.
Oh, that's right! Nobody would have done that. They wait until the market bottoms out and then get out. Right mister know it all? -
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Dow 26,616 1/26/2018, and Dow 9/26/2019 26,890. Same level last 20 months; no better than a CD as I have said.
The DJI is just 2% from it's all time high.
The current bull market lasted in March 2009. That's quite a run. And for most of that you've been saying the same thing. Our hats go off to those investors who understood how to capitalize on that opportunity. -
March of 2009 wiped out all equity returns in excess of T-Bills back to June of 1995. The next down cycle will be equally hard on investors. So rather than congratulating the past undervalued market, one should realize the extremely overvalued current market. There is little equity return at 2% below the all-time high. But do whatever, or think whatever you like, but the above is the history of markets.
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And when is that going to come?
Show me that with any degree of certainty and I;ll start taking what you have to say seriously. -
seattle prattle wrote:
And when is that going to come?
Show me that with any degree of certainty and I;ll start taking what you have to say seriously.
I think I’m going to heed Igy’s warnings. Seems like the potential for the market going substantially higher from here is not nearly as probable as it going substantially lower.
55 years old and a little over 900k in my 401k. I’m going to all cash for a while. I can’t afford a 40% hit. -
seattle prattle wrote:
And when is that going to come?
Show me that with any degree of certainty and I;ll start taking what you have to say seriously.
I could care less whether you take me seriously. Study market history. Not my opinion, facts.
Timing? That is impossible to know. It is all determined by someone willing to pay a higher price for an overvalued asset, until it stops. It won’t mean revert, it will mean invert.
No different than the Seattle housing market.
Greater fool theory. -
I’m going to cash wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
And when is that going to come?
Show me that with any degree of certainty and I;ll start taking what you have to say seriously.
I think I’m going to heed Igy’s warnings. Seems like the potential for the market going substantially higher from here is not nearly as probable as it going substantially lower.
55 years old and a little over 900k in my 401k. I’m going to all cash for a while. I can’t afford a 40% hit.
Going to cash is most likely not the answer, adjust your portfolio to your time horizon. -
I’m going to cash wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
And when is that going to come?
Show me that with any degree of certainty and I;ll start taking what you have to say seriously.
I think I’m going to heed Igy’s warnings. Seems like the potential for the market going substantially higher from here is not nearly as probable as it going substantially lower.
55 years old and a little over 900k in my 401k. I’m going to all cash for a while. I can’t afford a 40% hit.
You might live another 25 years. The market keeps taking hits and keeps going upwards. There is so much money on the sidelines waiting to invest when the market takes a moderate dive. Nothing is certain but I see it going up for the forseeable future. Igy had it going to 13,000 relatively recently. It is up 400% since 2009. You are potentially missing out on a lot. -
Sally Vix wrote:
I’m going to cash wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
And when is that going to come?
Show me that with any degree of certainty and I;ll start taking what you have to say seriously.
I think I’m going to heed Igy’s warnings. Seems like the potential for the market going substantially higher from here is not nearly as probable as it going substantially lower.
55 years old and a little over 900k in my 401k. I’m going to all cash for a while. I can’t afford a 40% hit.
You might live another 25 years. The market keeps taking hits and keeps going upwards. There is so much money on the sidelines waiting to invest when the market takes a moderate dive. Nothing is certain but I see it going up for the forseeable future. Igy had it going to 13,000 relatively recently. It is up 400% since 2009. You are potentially missing out on a lot.
Let’s start by dispelling one of the biggest myths.
THERE IS NO CASH ON THE SIDELINES. There is the same amount of dollar cash today as there was on in December when the S&P 500 was at 2,346. It is only the price of securities that have changed. -
One thing, you are not likely “missing a lot.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/opinion/articles/2019-09-27/tobin-s-q-may-lose-value-as-stocks-tool-after-u-s-revisions?__twitter_impression=true -
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Sally Vix wrote:
I’m going to cash wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
And when is that going to come?
Show me that with any degree of certainty and I;ll start taking what you have to say seriously.
I think I’m going to heed Igy’s warnings. Seems like the potential for the market going substantially higher from here is not nearly as probable as it going substantially lower.
55 years old and a little over 900k in my 401k. I’m going to all cash for a while. I can’t afford a 40% hit.
You might live another 25 years. The market keeps taking hits and keeps going upwards. There is so much money on the sidelines waiting to invest when the market takes a moderate dive. Nothing is certain but I see it going up for the forseeable future. Igy had it going to 13,000 relatively recently. It is up 400% since 2009. You are potentially missing out on a lot.
Let’s start by dispelling one of the biggest myths.
THERE IS NO CASH ON THE SIDELINES. There is the same amount of dollar cash today as there was on in December when the S&P 500 was at 2,346. It is only the price of securities that have changed.
Igy, the stock market has gone up on average 10% per year, or 11% if you include dividends reinvested for the last 100 years. Do you agree with this premise? The stock market is going to CONTINUE to go up generally in an upward fashion with ups and downs. Your CDs? They have a real return of like 1% over the last 30 years when the real return on the market is up around 7 or 8 percent. If you are looking at nominal rates a CD portfolio on average doubles maybe every 35 years while an equity doubles every 7 years. Do you see the difference? -
Not this nonsense again.
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Not this nonsense again.
I know you want to hide your head in the sand but here it is ... how your beloved CDs did versus the S & P 500 over the last 30 years. CDs are amongst the worst investment ever and and the stock market overall is the best.
https://www.putnam.com/literature/pdf/II514-59f49526b2d77658e5f6a5a377eacec5.pdf -
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
March of 2009 wiped out all equity returns in excess of T-Bills back to June of 1995. The next down cycle will be equally hard on investors. So rather than congratulating the past undervalued market, one should realize the extremely overvalued current market. There is little equity return at 2% below the all-time high. But do whatever, or think whatever you like, but the above is the history of markets.
You’ve been telling us for years that the market was overvalued. Now suddenly you change your tune and say the past market was undervalued. Yet valuations have dropped from when you first cried “wolf!” You obviously have no clue about “the history of the markets” or anything else.
Go Pats!
