Okay... So some things I have noticed that might be worth serious consideration.
1) The bond yield inversion. No real need to get into details as it's old news, but it usually precedes a recession.
2) Gold and silver are way up after being largely stagnant for years. This indicates people are putting their wealth into precious metals rather than stocks, indicating a significant percentage of investors see stocks as a bad (or at least very uncertain) investment over the next several years.
3) China is also buying up a ton of gold.
4) Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway held a record $122 billion in cash at the end of June. The conglomerate's cash is worth nearly 60% of its portfolio of public companies, the largest proportion since before the financial crisis. One of Buffett's favorite yardsticks (capitalization as a percentage of gross domestic product) suggests the US stock market is more overvalued than it was at the height of the dot-com bubble and just before the financial crisis. Capitalization as % of GDP reached 154% in 2017 — surpassing the 146% it notched at the height of the dot-com bubble in 2000 and the 137% it posted just before the financial crisis in 2007, Bloomberg said. Given the stock market's gains over the past 18 months, that percentage is undoubtedly even higher today. Perhaps WB knows something we don't? Or are things different now? Is this the new norm with passive investors?
5) CFOs see a recession coming in the next year. "According to the survey, 53% of CFOs expect a recession no later than the third-quarter of next year. When asked if a recession will begin by the end of next year, the percentage grows to 67%."
I'll add 6) The full effect of tariffs has yet to be felt by the economy, and I expect it to continually slow growth. That is somewhat speculative though.
All this combined suggests pretty strongly to me that a recession and significant dip in the market is likely over the next year. There certainly have been a lot of people calling it a bubble and saying as bad as 2008 or worse. Will it be that bad? Statistically speaking, it is unlikely, but how can anyone really predict? What do you all make of this?