Ghost of Igloi wrote:
^Yea, Go Pats!
https://theblast.com/c/robert-kraft-massage-parlor-instagram-orchids-asia
Instead of repeatedly bringing up this story about an innocent man, maybe you should tell us your massage parlor stories. You sure seem to have the code down.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Please love me!
Time to grow up, Igy.
Get a psyche check SCIIG.
^CIIG
Time to grow up, SCIIG. Also, good time to get a psyche check and some meds.
^CIIG
Looks like it was another big drinking night for Igy.
agip wrote:
should be said that Igy choses one of the only valuation metrics that give a pessimistic read on the future. Look at 80% of valuation metrics and they show a slightly overvalued market but nothing that suggests a terrible decade ahead.
A lot of those metrics are backwards looking or "well, this is how it's always worked" kind of metrics. We already had the first ever V recovery just 6 months ago so I think anything could happen. But 10 more years? Seems pretty aggressively bullish considering we're already in the longest expansion in history. I think deflation risks are real right now.
Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
should be said that Igy choses one of the only valuation metrics that give a pessimistic read on the future. Look at 80% of valuation metrics and they show a slightly overvalued market but nothing that suggests a terrible decade ahead.
A lot of those metrics are backwards looking or "well, this is how it's always worked" kind of metrics. We already had the first ever V recovery just 6 months ago so I think anything could happen. But 10 more years? Seems pretty aggressively bullish considering we're already in the longest expansion in history. I think deflation risks are real right now.
Agreed. Igy loves the CAPE, but it is backward looking as you said. Using that as your metric to predict 10 years of negative returns is just laughable.
seattle prattle wrote:
Do any of you check the markets while you run? Trying to get today's run in before the temps creep up to high, so it looks like i'll be doing exactly that.
Have a great weekend, all.
Part of the reason I scaled back the day trading was because I couldn't sleep at night. I'd wake up every hour to check futures and then I just started trading futures. Work during the day was always interesting, especially if I had a 9:30 meeting or something like that. It was exciting for a while though.
agip, congrats on being rich. I one day hope to be rich too. Hopefully my generation also gets an opportunity to buy the dip off the worst economic crash since the Great Depression and then ride up the largest expansion in US history for 4-5x returns after just 10 years.
Racket wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
Do any of you check the markets while you run? Trying to get today's run in before the temps creep up to high, so it looks like i'll be doing exactly that.
Have a great weekend, all.
Part of the reason I scaled back the day trading was because I couldn't sleep at night. I'd wake up every hour to check futures and then I just started trading futures. Work during the day was always interesting, especially if I had a 9:30 meeting or something like that. It was exciting for a while though.
agip, congrats on being rich. I one day hope to be rich too. Hopefully my generation also gets an opportunity to buy the dip off the worst economic crash since the Great Depression and then ride up the largest expansion in US history for 4-5x returns after just 10 years.
I have at times been too obsessed by market moves...I've helped some by putting $300 into an account at Predictit and playing around there, trying to win 50 cents here and there. Same thrill, lower consequences. Fun applying stock trading strategies to political betting sites.
Thanks Racketman. You don't have to buy the dip to get rich if you have 30 years though. I lived through the dot com and financial crisis but didn't have much new cash to throw at the market at those times. I just kept feeding the beast in small but consistant pieces and here we are.
Now I have to hold on to it.
J. Hardy wrote:
Racket wrote:
A lot of those metrics are backwards looking or "well, this is how it's always worked" kind of metrics. We already had the first ever V recovery just 6 months ago so I think anything could happen. But 10 more years? Seems pretty aggressively bullish considering we're already in the longest expansion in history. I think deflation risks are real right now.
Agreed. Igy loves the CAPE, but it is backward looking as you said. Using that as your metric to predict 10 years of negative returns is just laughable.
The is an incorrect analysis of CAPE. Besides any valuation metric is not a timing tool. The Buffett Indicator also shows the market at extremes.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2019/07/26/market-cap-to-gdp-an-updated-look-at-the-buffett-valuation-indicator1 year returns:
Gold in USD: +15%
Global Stocks: +3%
Timing, cherry picked, I know. But still. tells you there is some worry going on here.
I have around 3% in gold...might boost that. The problem with gold is that if there is a crisis...people buy USD which will drive down the price of gold to me.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
J. Hardy wrote:
Agreed. Igy loves the CAPE, but it is backward looking as you said. Using that as your metric to predict 10 years of negative returns is just laughable.
The is an incorrect analysis of CAPE. Besides any valuation metric is not a timing tool. The Buffett Indicator also shows the market at extremes.
His analysis is correct. The CAPE formula uses 10 year average numbers. By definition, those are only available in hindsight.
And if it is not a timing tool, why are you using it to predict the next 10 years of market performance?
Yalie wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The is an incorrect analysis of CAPE. Besides any valuation metric is not a timing tool. The Buffett Indicator also shows the market at extremes.
His analysis is correct. The CAPE formula uses 10 year average numbers. By definition, those are only available in hindsight.
And if it is not a timing tool, why are you using it to predict the next 10 years of market performance?
No, it is not. Read about it.