If HSGFX closes for the year at these levels it will have had its worst year in at least 10 years.
Down 14.5%.
I get bear funds. I used to work for one.
Shows what an amazing year it has been - everything is making money.
If HSGFX closes for the year at these levels it will have had its worst year in at least 10 years.
Down 14.5%.
I get bear funds. I used to work for one.
Shows what an amazing year it has been - everything is making money.
All to be expected in the biggest asset bubble ever.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
All to be expected in the biggest asset bubble ever.
um...you sure you want to say that a 14% loss is to be expected in a fund you've been recommending?
agip,
No, I recommend nothing here. In the fall of 2018 I said HSHFX would outperform TNA the remainder of the year. HSGFX did better than that outperforming most indices. In the spring 2019 I said HSGFX will outperform the S&P 500 from that point until year end. I stand by that view.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip,
No, I recommend nothing here. In the fall of 2018 I said HSHFX would outperform TNA the remainder of the year. HSGFX did better than that outperforming most indices. In the spring 2019 I said HSGFX will outperform the S&P 500 from that point until year end. I stand by that view.
Igy
Do we really have to go through this again? HSGFX has a one-star Morningstar rating - the lowest. It is on pace to have a negative 13% return for the year. It has an expense ratio of 1.3%. Here it how it has done over the last 10 years:
2019 - Negative 13%
2018
8.78%-0.26%
2017
-12.72%2.37%
2016
-11.49%2.23%
2015
-8.40%-0.25%
2014
-8.50%0.76%
2013
-6.62%2.92%
2012
-12.62%
agip wrote:
If HSGFX closes for the year at these levels it will have had its worst year in at least 10 years.
Down 14.5%.
I get bear funds. I used to work for one.
Shows what an amazing year it has been - everything is making money.
Investors with using value metrics have been punished by unprecedented central bank monetary policy. I assume that thinking what was will continue into the investment future. There are limits to extremes in anything. Here is Hussman’s view on the returns for a conventional portfolio. Interestingly I heard very similar commentary earlier this morning while listening to an interview on CNBC.
https://mobile.twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1154381819229409280?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5EtweetYou should be examining how his fund did in 2000 and 2008. Your analysis is backwards.
agip wrote:
I get bear funds. I used to work for one.
Didn't you quit in like 2007?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
What’s good for the goose... wrote:
So Igy has borrowed for his homes, cars, and kid’s education. But he’s critical of corporations that borrow at these low rates. Can you say HYPOCRITE?
Poor attempt to tarnish me. My children borrowed the student loans. Corporations buy back stocks to lower share count and inflate earnings. The corporate insiders sell those same inflated securities into the market to naive investors like you.
Don’t blame me. You tarnish yourself with your hypocrisy.
Don’t blame your children either. If you had saved for their education instead of borrowing to buy real estate, maybe they wouldn’t have had to borrow so much.
Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
I get bear funds. I used to work for one.
Didn't you quit in like 2007?
STFU
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip wrote:
If HSGFX closes for the year at these levels it will have had its worst year in at least 10 years.
Down 14.5%.
I get bear funds. I used to work for one.
Shows what an amazing year it has been - everything is making money.
Investors with using value metrics have been punished by unprecedented central bank monetary policy. I assume that thinking what was will continue into the investment future. There are limits to extremes in anything. Here is Hussman’s view on the returns for a conventional portfolio. Interestingly I heard very similar commentary earlier this morning while listening to an interview on CNBC.
https://mobile.twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1154381819229409280?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
this guy has been saying similar stuff for years even as the market has risen so much - clearly there is no reason to put any stock in his predictions.
He'll be right - there will be a bear market at some point - but he has lost all credibility by promising one almost every year.
What’s good for the goose... wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Poor attempt to tarnish me. My children borrowed the student loans. Corporations buy back stocks to lower share count and inflate earnings. The corporate insiders sell those same inflated securities into the market to naive investors like you.
Don’t blame me. You tarnish yourself with your hypocrisy.
Don’t blame your children either. If you had saved for their education instead of borrowing to buy real estate, maybe they wouldn’t have had to borrow so much.
You are so mean. I am going to cry.
agip wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Investors with using value metrics have been punished by unprecedented central bank monetary policy. I assume that thinking what was will continue into the investment future. There are limits to extremes in anything. Here is Hussman’s view on the returns for a conventional portfolio. Interestingly I heard very similar commentary earlier this morning while listening to an interview on CNBC.
https://mobile.twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1154381819229409280?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweetthis guy has been saying similar stuff for years even as the market has risen so much - clearly there is no reason to put any stock in his predictions.
He'll be right - there will be a bear market at some point - but he has lost all credibility by promising one almost every year.
agip,
If he is right you will be equally wrong over the short run.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip wrote:
this guy has been saying similar stuff for years even as the market has risen so much - clearly there is no reason to put any stock in his predictions.
He'll be right - there will be a bear market at some point - but he has lost all credibility by promising one almost every year.
agip,
If he is right you will be equally wrong over the short run.
Igy
I think he's a garbage investor because, at a minimum, he's putting all his eggs in one basket and betting hard on the downside with obviously little to no protection against the upside
Racket wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip,
If he is right you will be equally wrong over the short run.
Igy
I think he's a garbage investor because, at a minimum, he's putting all his eggs in one basket and betting hard on the downside with obviously little to no protection against the upside
the flip side of your argument is that a bear fund is *supposed* to be a hedge - it is meant to be a small portion of a portfolio that will rise when stock markets fall. So it's not really fair to suggest it is a total return sort of fund meant to be owned throughout the cycle.
agip wrote:
Racket wrote:
I think he's a garbage investor because, at a minimum, he's putting all his eggs in one basket and betting hard on the downside with obviously little to no protection against the upside
the flip side of your argument is that a bear fund is *supposed* to be a hedge - it is meant to be a small portion of a portfolio that will rise when stock markets fall. So it's not really fair to suggest it is a total return sort of fund meant to be owned throughout the cycle.
In that case, why bother debating if it's a "good fund" or not? I mean if it's losing value when the stock market climbs then it sounds like it's doing it's job? It's like debating the merits the a 3x leveraged bear ETF.
If you base Hussman’s performance against the S&P 500 Index it looks ridiculous. On the other hand, judged against unprecedented and bizarre central bank experimentations in monetary policy with investors blindly tagging along, not so much.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
On the other hand, judged against unprecedented and bizarre central bank experimentations in monetary policy with investors blindly tagging along, not so much.
I mean, he's still losing money. The market is rigged and big money investors are retarded? Yeah, that's old news, like circa 1985 news. As long as no one cares then there's nothing to see here.
Racket wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
On the other hand, judged against unprecedented and bizarre central bank experimentations in monetary policy with investors blindly tagging along, not so much.
I mean, he's still losing money. The market is rigged and big money investors are retarded? Yeah, that's old news, like circa 1985 news. As long as no one cares then there's nothing to see here.
You haven’t even been an investor in a bear market. That statement is so wrong it is impossible to reply to it.
This market is more distorted than any investing era of our lifetimes, that is assuming we don’t have any 90 year olds posting here. Wolf Richter does a good job using TSLA and BA to illustrate just some of the distortions in this market. It is the sign of the times, but don’t kid yourself into thinking it is anywhere close to durable.