Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
another round of all time highs today
and another round of my short term high yield bond strategy costing me money.
Europe posted terrible numbers and our own Federal Reserve is anxious about lowering rates because of all the storm clouds on the horizon. Also, tariffs on China. Just seems like too many headwinds right now and without a bump in wages I'm really questioning how much more the American consumer can take on. Feels very much like the engine is redlining and Wall Street is trying to squeeze out like 100 more horsepower than is really there
we've had these moments before, over the last 10 years....when it feels like the world economy is running out of steam and will sag. but every time in the last 10 years earnings took a quarter or two quarters off...and then continued their climb. Certainly that's what the stock markets are predicting right now: an earnings valley, but a short term one.
Some feel that all we have now is a result of the trade war...companies bought up inventory to make sure they had stuff to sell, kicking up GDP numbers....but now inventories are full so GDP is stalling. But the inventories will sell of course, then off we go. Part 2 is that supply chains are being ripped out of china and put into Vietnam and other nations...that takes time but isn't recessionary.