Anyone who’s followed this thread a long time will know that I am not Igy. Maserati is right I don’t live in the US, mind you I’ve been to maybe 20 states in my life.
Maserati what do you think about buying RE in Vancouver, BC at this moment of price weakness?
Maserati wrote:
B&H up over 3% now, this was one of the (non)-events during which I planned to hold, and expected to see positive action.
More events are on the way.
Futures p massive, and after a couple of fairly big up days. Hope all of you are enjoying this as much as I am.
Maserati wrote:
The very first thing that Powell said was that he and his colleagues have one single goal: to maintain the economic expansion.
I like Powell and I think he's trying his best but he's a total fish out of water on this job
seattle prattle wrote:
Maserati wrote:
B&H up over 3% now, this was one of the (non)-events during which I planned to hold, and expected to see positive action.
More events are on the way.
Futures p massive, and after a couple of fairly big up days. Hope all of you are enjoying this as much as I am.
Investors are buying more real estate now than ever before. Anyone who wants to buy their first home these days is totally screwed. Meanwhile boomers will drone on forever about how great it is that they bought their house in 1975 for a nickel and a pack of gum and recently sold it for 1 million + to some Chinese guy who paid all cash, and they'll wonder why millennial are falling so behind.
seattle prattle wrote:
Maserati wrote:
B&H up over 3% now, this was one of the (non)-events during which I planned to hold, and expected to see positive action.
More events are on the way.
Futures p massive, and after a couple of fairly big up days. Hope all of you are enjoying this as much as I am.
ach I can't enjoy this anymore. I need a new hobby.
Just seems too stupid to guide a strategy around whether ultra short term interest rates are 2.25% or 2.00%. What f'ing difference does it make to the real economy? Hardly anything.
But anyway, yeah, everyone back in the water, the shark hasn't been seen for 5 minutes.
I'm enjoying the paper gains but wish it weren't just the Fed. The global economy is slowing and war is brewing. Not great stuff.
seattle prattle wrote:
Hope all of you are enjoying this as much as I am.
Careful! Don't get lulled in to thinking this is good news.
I read from a reliable source, a massive market drop is on the horizon. Soon.
Racket wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
Futures p massive, and after a couple of fairly big up days. Hope all of you are enjoying this as much as I am.
Investors are buying more real estate now than ever before. Anyone who wants to buy their first home these days is totally screwed. Meanwhile boomers will drone on forever about how great it is that they bought their house in 1975 for a nickel and a pack of gum and recently sold it for 1 million + to some Chinese guy who paid all cash, and they'll wonder why millennial are falling so behind.
Racket,
Well if you wish to pin a villain you should look no further than the Fed. Set the cost of borrowing low the price of the commodity goes up, be it real estate, stocks or bonds. So the only way to profit is to sell to someone else at a higher price. Of course this experiment is an unsustainable time bomb that you and others continue to ignore. In regards to the Chinese real estate buyer, the Japanese were buying everything in sight in the 1980s including the Pebble Beach Golf Course, that did not turn out well.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
So the only way to profit is to sell to someone else at a higher price.
?♂️
Duh!! wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
So the only way to profit is to sell to someone else at a higher price.
?♂️
“Of course this experiment is an unsustainable time bomb that you and others continue to ignore.”
?
Duh 2! wrote:
Duh!! wrote:
?♂️
“Of course this experiment is an unsustainable time bomb that you and others continue to ignore.”
?
Good one! This guy says some really dumb stuff.
the idiot wrote:
Anyone who’s followed this thread a long time will know that I am not Igy. Maserati is right I don’t live in the US, mind you I’ve been to maybe 20 states in my life.
Maserati what do you think about buying RE in Vancouver, BC at this moment of price weakness?
It's a niche market, along with Sydney, etc.
Housing has forever been unaffordable there. I remember 25 years ago a newly-built 32-foot lot in Pt Grey would go for 800-900k. Squamish and places like PoCo were just getting off the ground.
Make no mistake, it is the money laundering capital of the world. The WHOLE world. It's not just China, but huge contributions from elsewhere: India, Bangladesh, Japan, everywhere. Canadian lawyers and a supreme court decision are the enablers, along with Quebec. The gov is saying they are trying to change things, but really, they're not--Canada has no substantial economy, it's ALL housing. House prices and native land claims are the only "Canadian" news, apart from a few tech companies and some resource extraction, and a corrupt smelter operation in BC.
Yes there is a small bump down, and if you need a place there to live, you might want to move on something. Stay away from the very high end. Condos have seen recent favorable action, and are easier to get into. Don't get into a dump on the east side or anywhere else unless you are going to build yourself. Really, it totally depends on the market segment you want.
Locals think that prices are huge, but you know what? Compared to other desirable places in the world, they're not. I know of people who pay USD 100,000 a month to rent a condo in Monaco. Sydney, the Bay area, parts of DC, Paris, Zurich, LA, London, etc all have spectacular RE prices. Remember, the prices up there are reported in CAD, and it makes a difference.
So I don't see any real abatement. Local absentee tax rules made no difference. Chinese capital controls made no real difference. FATCA made no difference. It's a free-for-all, and you can be a part of it. Incredibly I will say that if you buy something reasonable, you could make money on it in 10 years. There is a TON of money flowing through there right now, more than I see anywhere else in the world. While beautiful developments flounder in Sharm-el-Sheikh, crapholes in Surrey flourish.
What's my advice worth? I convinced a friend to buy a monster home in Pt Grey in 1997 for $360k, during a downturn. For some reason this property wasn't selling. He's a rich kid, his dad was an MD businessman who started and sold a large line of MRI imaging clinics. He used his dad's money to buy it for cash. Value today? Nobody is sure, but CAD 3-5M. I also approved my father-in-law's purchase of an "overpriced" condo in 2015 for CAD 2.2M. Today? At least CAD 3.5M, it is beachfront on English Bay. I also suggested to an ex that she use some money to buy a condo in Squamish in 1993 for CAD 120k, it's now worth CAD 450k.
Am I in the Vancouver market? No. Why not? #1: too expensive, I can deploy money better. #2: doesn't turn my crank. Lived there for many years. #3: It's a self-contained echo-chamber universe in which I don't care to embed myself again. #4: I don't have to live there. #5: For what I would want, it's out of my league. Literally my other places cost less and are far more appealing and classic than anything in Hongcouver.
BTW the old Hongcouver is gone. Now it's just Hong Kong or Osaka 2.0. You might get some relief in the British Properties or Lion's Bay, or maybe far up Lynn Canyon.
If you have the money and you have to live there, go for it. If not, try other places like Oz, NZ, SF, Cote d'Azur, Andorra, Barcelona, etc.
Also, Whistler-Blackcomb has become THE most expensive ski hill in the world. Yes I have seen all the best. Not only that, but they have some of the worst conditions anywhere in the world! Total ripoff, but definitely a place to be seen. Last I was there I was skiing with Seal.
Racket wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
Futures p massive, and after a couple of fairly big up days. Hope all of you are enjoying this as much as I am.
Investors are buying more real estate now than ever before. Anyone who wants to buy their first home these days is totally screwed. Meanwhile boomers will drone on forever about how great it is that they bought their house in 1975 for a nickel and a pack of gum and recently sold it for 1 million + to some Chinese guy who paid all cash, and they'll wonder why millennial are falling so behind.
RE has been some of my best-performing stuff, thanks to CB inflation.
Millennials often don't think they're behind, because on paper, it looks like they're ahead. I have never seen any other generation so intent on inheritance. They expect to get the full value of that $1 million their boomer parents got from some Chinese guy.
Problem is, the boomers will spend it. All. Sure some have set up ILIT's, but really, not many. Where I am in the midwest, people are still more reasonable and prudent, even boomers...but the new/old mantra is that "you can't take it with you". Wait until the boomers get really old, then you will see the rate of evaporation skyrocket. I myself fully expect my wife to inherit half of a 5 million dollar condo, loaded with 6 million dollars of debt.
And Seattle, yes, I'm enjoying it thoroughly. Validation works for me! More events coming.
The difference is that the Japanese play by rules, strictly--whereas the Chinese are all anarchic criminals unless you are inside their immediate family group. Japanese groups extend broader, and include business relations. Hence, Japanese will sink or swim with the tide, but Chinese are much more adaptable, much more quickly.
Completely different.
the fed does not set the cost of borrowing by companies or homebuyers. the fed sets one interest rate, an ultra short rate that does not have much to do with mortgage rates.
QE is a bit of a exception, but I don't think many serious economists think it has held 5 or 10 year rates down much. 10 bps?
The Fed is an easy target but they are far less powerful than people want to believe.
gold at a 5 year high.
lower interest rates, trade war, hot war...good set up for goldbugs.
I have a 3% position in gold, which isn't much but I'll take it.
Wow. Igy is really taking it the chin this morning.
To be fair, the day is early.
Maserati wrote:
To be fair, the day is early.
I agree. I guess the big 60% market drop he's been calling for could happen by the end of today.
Maserati wrote:Am I in the Vancouver market? No. Why not? #1: too expensive, I can deploy money better. #2: doesn't turn my crank. Lived there for many years. #3: It's a self-contained echo-chamber universe in which I don't care to embed myself again. #4: I don't have to live there. #5: For what I would want, it's out of my league.
Thanks for your insights. I'm more curious whether you think, all things considered, there's money to be made there. Recent pressures (foreigner tax, vacant unit tax, mortgage qualification rules) have put downward pressure across the country, felt most significantly in Vancouver (and Toronto) where prices are down ~ 10% or more from their peak:
http://creastats.crea.ca/vanc/I'm not one to time a market, but on the surface this looks like a buying opportunity, relative to other places to put money in RE.