Ghost of Igloi wrote:
No....just wait until 12/31/2019. Let’s talk then.
If the S&P returned better than CDs and you believe the S&P returns were poor, then logically CDs were poorer.
Wow, Igy is really taking it on the chin tonight!
Lemons wrote:
Wow, Igy is really taking it on the chin tonight!
He’s had a tough week.
Igy fan wrote:
Go easy on Igy. He’s had a tough couple of days. There was one post yesterday where he made THREE mistakes! That’s a lot even by his usual standards. Today wasn’t much better.
Payrolls: down.
Markets: up.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
No....just wait until 12/31/2019. Let’s talk then.
How many times have we heard this?
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
SOON = 2015 - 2029
He is very specific.
Maserati wrote:
Payrolls: down.
Markets: up.
Economy getting worse -> rate cuts -> market goes up.
Economy gets better -> market makers threaten to sell everything and blame the Fed -> the Fed doesn't hike rates -> market goes up.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://mobile.twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1136910134100336647
This guy's point is essentially correct...that huge debt is fine and not a problem...until it is not fine and a huge problem. The buildup to the housing crisis was a good time economically. The added debt was a boost to the economy and helped us all.
But then when those loans couldn't be paid back...it turned very bad for us all.
Certainly everyone knows the world is flooded in debt. Which is fine, and helping us now. But when/if it turns...paying the interest on those debts will be very hard and will hurt us all.
How confident are you that you will get out in time? You feel lucky?
Some people are perfectly fine with their country or personally being fiscally irresponsible. To believe it continues without severe payback is neither rational or supported by market history. The mentality that it continues infinitely is necessary to create the greatest asset bubble ever. Everyone here is free to bet their investment dollars anyway they like. It is interesting that on the same day the TLT is up 1% while the SPY 1,18%.
Just closed my long positions on nasdaq futures. While you guys were busy arguing over whether or not CDs at 2.5% growth were a good idea or not, I was busy racking up a cool 110% gain in just a 2 week time.
Could I have lost 40% of my entire portfolio value in that time if it went the other way? Yes. But I didn't.
If I didn't have student loans to aggressively pay off then I'd be shopping with Maserati for some homes on the French Mediterranean.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Some people are perfectly fine with their country or personally being fiscally irresponsible. To believe it continues without severe payback is neither rational or supported by market history. The mentality that it continues infinitely is necessary to create the greatest asset bubble ever. Everyone here is free to bet their investment dollars anyway they like. It is interesting that on the same day the TLT is up 1% while the SPY 1,18%.
yeah.
the problem I have these days is separating my age from the investment analysis.
I'm in my 50s now and I'm more concerned with preserving my wealth than building it up. So I get more worried about things, and more conservative. So my returns have been worse than they should have been the last few years.
I wonder if I were 30 and in this same economic environment I'd feel differently, less worried. Would I be more optimistic? I don't know.
Just seems that as we get older we get more worried, more pessimistic, and that makes us worse investors.
Talking about me specifically here.
Racket wrote:
Just closed my long positions on nasdaq futures. While you guys were busy arguing over whether or not CDs at 2.5% growth were a good idea or not, I was busy racking up a cool 110% gain in just a 2 week time.
Could I have lost 40% of my entire portfolio value in that time if it went the other way? Yes. But I didn't.
If I didn't have student loans to aggressively pay off then I'd be shopping with Maserati for some homes on the French Mediterranean.
Bravo, Racket.
I'm just flailing around, not having made much money since the end 2017 peak. Up, down, but going nowhere.
That's just basic risk management. No one who's sane wants to leverage all their money that close to retirement. I know people that legit lost everything in 2008, like neighbors and family friends in their late 50s that had 401ks in managed funds or hedge funds that went to 0 and they're still working to this day to replenish the retirement account.
There’s nothing wrong with being more conservative as you age. But the problem is too many investors get too conservative. The old adage of getting out of stocks in retirement is now considered folly. If you’re going to live to 85, or beyond, you’d be silly not to be at least 50%, and probably more, in the stock market in your 60s and early 70s. Buckets.
agip - the other day when you said you were close to retiring, I was thinking you are in your 60s. But you are in your 50s?!!! You are still young. Peter Lynch might have been one of the most well-regarded investors of all time and he said something like equities was the only way to go up until you are really getting close to retiring. agip - you are still young at 50-ish! I am 58 and have some target retirement funds with Vanguard but for the most part I am all in with equity mutual funds and ETFs. I really won't dial back until my late 60s or early70s.
Your downside exposure is massive though. Stairs up, elevator down. I'd rather miss out on like, what, 2-3% extra gains I could have had than be exposed to a 25% bear market out of nowhere
I wasn't very clear.
I meant that I am worried I let my age affect my general view of the market. In other words, I am at around 63% stocks and that is fine for where I am in life.
But within that 63% in stocks, I am very worried. I wonder if that worry is just the accumulation of problems I've had to live through over 50 years, fear of death, fear of these new kids taking over, and not understanding how things work anymore. Just general older guy worries.
I wonder if younger investors tend to be more optimistic and therefore probably better investors than older ones.
I suppose the counter argument to that is how pessimistic millennials and Gen Zs are. They really don't like to invest, from my experience. They think the world is ending.
purple martin wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
No....just wait until 12/31/2019. Let’s talk then.
How many times have we heard this?
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
SOON = 2015 - 2029
He is very specific.
He is also very specific about only judging the market as to how it has done since 2000 which was succeeded by three terrible years.
I hear you, and by all estimations, I should follow in that school of thought, being in the early 60s. But while I am not nearly as adventurous as say Racket, I surely am more aggressive than an average investor my age would be.
Throughout the last 15 years or so, i basically saw outsized gains and saw no need to follow conventional wisdom of "re-balancing". I got comfortable with my level of risk.
My returns have been good. We'll see what the future holds.
I keep saying that if I can reclaim my ATH from it's peak last year, I am going to move to a more conservative portfolio. At this point, there's no reason to assume too much risk, but i don't want to sell until it reaches that point. I'm maybe about 6% off of my ATH now.