Down goes the Dow

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  • agip
    registered
    7 months ago 06/05/2019 9:11pm CDT
    re: Sally Vix
    Forum Index
    Sally Vix wrote:

    agip wrote:

    Sally Vix wrote:

    agip wrote:

    days like today are why it is so hard to beat the market by trading.

    Market down for around five weeks, plenty of bad news...then a massive rally on a hint of trade talks.

    What do you do? Buy back in thinking this was just another 8% meaningless drawdown so buy the dip? In theory, in a trading range market you buy the dip and sell the peak and make money that way.

    Or do you take advantage of a monster rally like this to sell, thinking that the underlying news remains bad so keep selling?

    So hard to do. Impossible, really.

    I'm about as light in stocks as I've ever been - around 60%. But that understates my risk because I have another 5% or so in short term high yield bonds.


    There is no choice in what to do. If you have money on the side buy into the market! The market WILL rebound. It always does. In 2 months it will be up to previous highs. The market ALWAYS rebounds. Sometimes it may take a while but it always rebounds. 10% annually or 11% with dividends reinvested. Like clockwork. For the last 130 years.


    The problem with that theory is that it is not clockwork - a new high could come tomorrow or 20 years from now. I'm nearing retirement...a 50% drawdown would be a life altering event for me. We've had two of those in the last 20 years.

    If there were no choice in what to do...everyone, from 10 year olds to 95 year olds would be 100% in stocks.


    Yes, you are right. You are close to retirement. My advice was for those not nearing retirement. I still feel the market will be up to earlier highs in 3 months or less. Of course I may be wrong but there is so much money on the sidelines and no other investment alternative even close to matching what the market has done historically. Again, you nearing retirement would be wise to change up your portfolio.

    *handshake*
  • Ghost of Igloi
    registered
    7 months ago 06/05/2019 9:15pm CDT
    re: J. Hardy
    Forum Index
    Sure, ahead of your stocks the past 17 months.
  • J. Hardy
    7 months ago 06/05/2019 10:03pm CDT
    re: Ghost of Igloi
    Forum Index
    Ghost of Igloi wrote:

    Sure, ahead of your stocks the past 17 months.


    Not a chance, but don’t let the truth get in the way of your fantasies about me.
  • Igy fan
    7 months ago 06/05/2019 10:28pm CDT
    re: J. Hardy
    Forum Index
    Go easy on Igy. He’s had a tough couple of days. There was one post yesterday where he made THREE mistakes! That’s a lot even by his usual standards. Today wasn’t much better.
  • up up and away
    7 months ago 06/06/2019 8:40am CDT
    re: Igy fan
    Forum Index
    https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/06/investing/stock-market-sentiment-fed-trade-war/index.html
  • Unbiased External Observer
    7 months ago 06/06/2019 8:53am CDT
    re: J. Hardy
    Forum Index
    Lurker here. Since he always posts the same ridiculous thing, I now just ignore Igloi’s posts.

    I mean, seriously, why engage the guy at all? It won’t get you anywhere.
  • Ghost of Igloi
    registered
    7 months ago 06/06/2019 9:22am CDT
    re: Unbiased External Observer
    Forum Index
    Unbiased External Observer wrote:

    Lurker here. Since he always posts the same ridiculous thing, I now just ignore Igloi’s posts.

    I mean, seriously, why engage the guy at all? It won’t get you anywhere.


    Gosh, sure wish the scary crazy Igy obsessed guy would take your advice.
  • mellon
    7 months ago 06/06/2019 9:27am CDT
    re: Unbiased External Observer
    Forum Index
    Unbiased External Observer wrote:

    Lurker here. Since he always posts the same ridiculous thing, I now just ignore Igloi’s posts.

    I mean, seriously, why engage the guy at all? It won’t get you anywhere.


    Exactly! He is obsessed with one day being able to say, "SEE I TOLD YOU SO". No matter how many years it takes.
    The problem is, even if a big downturn happens today, that doesn't justify avoiding the market for the past 8 years being a good move based on his sentiment about stock investments since 2011 will not do well.

    And the comment on his genius move in 2008. Really?
  • Ghost of Igloi
    registered
    7 months ago 06/06/2019 10:19am CDT
    re: agip
    Forum Index
    https://global-macro-monitor.com/2019/06/05/how-many-hours-of-work-does-it-take-to-buy-the-sp500/
  • Sally Vix
    registered
    7 months ago 06/06/2019 10:21am CDT
    re: J. Hardy
    Forum Index
    This chart is not a pretty one for CD lovers. It shows real rates of CDs versus that of the stock market since 1990. Over the last 10 years CD real returns have been negative 70% of the time and the other years they have performed horribly. You can ladder them however you want but you still get nothing.

    https://www.putnam.com/literature/pdf/II514-59f49526b2d77658e5f6a5a377eacec5.pdf
  • Igy fan
    7 months ago 06/06/2019 10:47am CDT
    re: Sally Vix
    Forum Index
    But Igy says they beat the market. That’s why he’s all in with CDs.
  • Sally Vix
    registered
    7 months ago 06/06/2019 10:57am CDT
    re: Igy fan
    Forum Index
    Igy fan wrote:

    But Igy says they beat the market. That’s why he’s all in with CDs.


    In 2013 the real rate of return for the S & P was 30 % versus NEGATIVE 1.3% for CDs. WHICH investment would you take?
  • Ghost of Igloi
    registered
    7 months ago 06/06/2019 11:03am CDT
    re: Sally Vix
    Forum Index
    The Scary Crazy Igy Obsessed Guy has come up with the most appropriate of his many handles: “Igy Fan.”

    In regards to Sally’s CD comments, the seventeen month market performance is CD equivalent, and the risk adjusted return for now overwhelmingly favors CDs. As this cycle rolls over I would expect the continued erosion of principal for equity holders.
  • Sally Vix
    registered
    7 months ago 06/06/2019 11:06am CDT
    re: Ghost of Igloi
    Forum Index
    Ghost of Igloi wrote:

    The Scary Crazy Igy Obsessed Guy has come up with the most appropriate of his many handles: “Igy Fan.”

    In regards to Sally’s CD comments, the seventeen month market performance is CD equivalent, and the risk adjusted return for now overwhelmingly favors CDs. As this cycle rolls over I would expect the continued erosion of principal for equity holders.


    Igy - the last 30 years the real rate of returns of CDs is 1%. For the S & P it is 7.29%. A difference of 6% annually. Which WOULD YOU SAY has been the better investment over the last 30 years?
  • Lemons
    7 months ago 06/06/2019 11:31am CDT
    re: Ghost of Igloi
    Forum Index
    Ghost of Igloi wrote:

    As this cycle rolls over I would expect the continued erosion of principal for equity holders.


    I expect you to be wrong as usual.
  • Ghost of Igloi
    registered
    7 months ago 06/06/2019 11:48am CDT
    re: Sally Vix
    Forum Index
    Sally Vix wrote:

    Ghost of Igloi wrote:

    The Scary Crazy Igy Obsessed Guy has come up with the most appropriate of his many handles: “Igy Fan.”

    In regards to Sally’s CD comments, the seventeen month market performance is CD equivalent, and the risk adjusted return for now overwhelmingly favors CDs. As this cycle rolls over I would expect the continued erosion of principal for equity holders.


    Igy - the last 30 years the real rate of returns of CDs is 1%. For the S & P it is 7.29%. A difference of 6% annually. Which WOULD YOU SAY has been the better investment over the last 30 years?


    https://mobile.twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1136671354453934084
  • Putin
    registered
    7 months ago 06/06/2019 12:08pm CDT
    re: Ghost of Igloi
    Forum Index
    Well done, comrade. The fake news is strong with Hussmanski.
  • wondering
    registered
    7 months ago 06/06/2019 3:01pm CDT
    re: Unbiased External Observer
    Forum Index
    Unbiased External Observer wrote:

    Lurker here. Since he always posts the same ridiculous thing, I now just ignore Igloi’s posts.

    I mean, seriously, why engage the guy at all? It won’t get you anywhere.


    He’s definitely got a screw loose. I think he suffers from paranoid delusions. For example, more than once he’s posted that the “scary crazy guy” has referenced his wife, his employer, and others close to him. But when I asked him repeatedly to back that up with facts, he turtles.

    As if that isn’t enough, he constantly posts his absurd fantasies about other posters...especially those who disagree with him. He is totally trying to rationalize his irrational behavior.

    I’m sure he’ll reply with his usual barrage of insults. I think he knows he has problems and uses the insults to try to bring us down to his level. I hope he gets the help he desperately needs.
  • Ghost of Igloi
    registered
    7 months ago 06/06/2019 4:37pm CDT
    re: Ghost of Igloi
    Forum Index
    ^Last two posts by Scary Crazy Igy Obsessed Guy. Add “Putin” to his latest registered handle.
  • Putin
    registered
    7 months ago 06/06/2019 5:11pm CDT
    re: Ghost of Igloi
    Forum Index
    Ghost of Igloi wrote:

    ^Last two posts by Scary Crazy Igy Obsessed Guy. Add “Putin” to his latest registered handle.


    Your fake news skills are not yet as refined as Trump, Hussman, Darden, etc.. Best to let them carry the ball for now, comrade.