Tell Vald I will have more flexibility after the election.
Tell Vald I will have more flexibility after the election.
B Obama wrote:
Tell Vald I will have more flexibility after the election.
Vlad, Igy will have more flexibility after the election.
Racket wrote:
That's not how bubbles work and there's been several bubbles that have burst since 2008.
You are missing the whole point. Its socialism. I'm suggesting what you call a bubble is really in essence a functioning command economy. And indeed, I think you are spot on in your other post when you say Germany is not going to let DB going bankrupt. I caught a segment on CNBC about DB and they noted that contrary to the DB equity, DB bonds are trading like its a totally healthy company. Basically the bondholder know the government has their back.
Ryan, that is what I said some pages back—although in response to agip, I clarified that it was markets and their support—not the entire economy—that was managed.
IDK if it’s socialism, that’s a bit different...but with so many 401k and pension and insurance assets in the markets, it is sure starting to look like equality of outcome.
On p. 1641 I likened asset price management to management of the money supply. More accurately, it is analogous to gov management of the purchasing price of the dollar via money supply, rates, etc. Stocks are now right in there with USD fiat, divorced from fundamentals like when the USD went off gold, managed to ensure a generally-predictable future value.
Command and control markets, functioning smoothly. You are either a member of the party, or you are not.
Dow up 430+, btw. We will see if it can hold.
Here’s something: I have a line on some Canadian REIT’s that are delivering 8+%, with portfolios leveraged 4:1 in secondary and tertiary markets around Toronto. Residential, commercial, etc.
Bubblicious RE market there, but a juggernaut, Chinese inflows show no sign of abatement, although I personally sense an easing.
Anybody have any experience with those products in that market? I haven’t looked at them super-closely yet.
LOL. Short squeeze takes NASDAQ up 2%, but still 8% off the highs. Command and control economy is working so well that US factories orders show the slowest growth since Trump elected. The baristas are planning for nirvana while Powell looks to NIRP to keep markets happy.
“Factories” are but one slice of the economic pie.
And like with “jobs” , “wages”, etc the gov figures distort reality. Just like with other indicators, I reject this one.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
LOL. Short squeeze takes NASDAQ up 2%, but still 8% off the highs. Command and control economy is working so well that US factories orders show the slowest growth since Trump elected. The baristas are planning for nirvana while Powell looks to NIRP to keep markets happy.
You’re the only one who thinks “up” and “growth” are dirty words.
Go Pats!
Dirty words: The Orchids of Asia Day Spa
Ho Pats!
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Dirty words: The Orchids of Asia Day Spa
Ho Pats!
Typical diversion when unable to offer a rational rebuttal.
Sure, scary crazy Igy obsessed guy.
Maserati wrote:
Ryan, that is what I said some pages back—although in response to agip, I clarified that it was markets and their support—not the entire economy—that was managed.
IDK if it’s socialism, that’s a bit different...but with so many 401k and pension and insurance assets in the markets, it is sure starting to look like equality of outcome.
On p. 1641 I likened asset price management to management of the money supply. More accurately, it is analogous to gov management of the purchasing price of the dollar via money supply, rates, etc. Stocks are now right in there with USD fiat, divorced from fundamentals like when the USD went off gold, managed to ensure a generally-predictable future value.
Command and control markets, functioning smoothly. You are either a member of the party, or you are not.
I think this is more a function of the fact that there's so much money in the stock market and so many big money players who want it to only go up. I feel good having my 401k on the same team as people with trillions of dollars who are very interested in it going up and only up. So I'm skeptical of an active management, but I can believe everyone wants the same thing.
Sally Vix wrote:
Maserati wrote:
Why should there be, in the aggregate? There is no plague, no famine, no pandemic, no meteor strike, no huge volcanism...
What exactly is bad, that is not an externality? Of course we are killing the planet, the end is nearer every day—but that is external to the market as long as we have oil, and we do—and we will for your lifetime.
Even at that, necessity means opportunity, and opportunity is the potential for growth.
You have trillions sitting on the sidelines. The market has consistently returned 10 or 11% annually for the last 110 years. No other investment comes close. Why would anyone invest in anything else?
Because both my art and RE investments have vastly out-performed the markets over the past 20 years. I could still make a killing if I wanted to sell any of the stuff I have retained, but I like it too much.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Sure, scary crazy Igy obsessed guy.
I’ve avoided replying to your posts for weeks and I should have done so today. You are a sad, sad little man.
Sad is your charade.
Maserati wrote:
Sally Vix wrote:
You have trillions sitting on the sidelines. The market has consistently returned 10 or 11% annually for the last 110 years. No other investment comes close. Why would anyone invest in anything else?
Because both my art and RE investments have vastly out-performed the markets over the past 20 years. I could still make a killing if I wanted to sell any of the stuff I have retained, but I like it too much.
Seventeen month Dow Jones Industrial Average return January 1, 2018 through May 31, 2019 -1.849% and with dividends reinvested +0.075%, underperforming T-Bills.
So much for your Bull Market BS.
Come on Igy, it’s ME. ?
Sure Maz you’re cool. Not replying to you specifically, but to the bullish sentiment. The figures I quoted were from the online calculator which shows S&P 500 1/1/2018-5/30/2019 at -0.025% and with reinvested dividends +1.276%. Powell’s dovish comments gave the market a lift off the trade tariff lows. ?
I won’t be able to respond soon because I am about to re-engage my tiling project after an absence...but Igy, do you have any ideas on precisely how the allegedly vast amounts of outstanding debt will affect things in the next, say, 2 years? Precisely what will the mechanism be, that is?
Maserati,
This article explains the issues in more detail.
https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/articles/the-bbb-u-s-bond-market-exceeds-3-trillion
Bottom line, as long as someone is willing to underwrite and buy the refinancing bonds, and if the interest rate issued is low enough, all is fine. Otherwise the maturing notes have to be paid off with existing funds. An affordable interest and confidence the issuer will pay back principal is necessary. If the issuers credit worthiness declines to junk (next step below BBB) both interest and funding are negatively impacted. Next recession will expose which poor business models have been kept afloat by low rates.
Igy