We might get there, but it won't matter unless you are a trader.
Speaking of which, I am thinking of buying some levered etf's
We might get there, but it won't matter unless you are a trader.
Speaking of which, I am thinking of buying some levered etf's
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Maserati wrote:
Igy why do you put yourself out there so far, on a small daily move? BTFD!
It will be a sign if we close down -666. ?
Yes, a sign that we're a little short of losing 1/2 the market.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/07/jeffrey-gundlach-sees-better-than-50percent-chance-new-tariffs-happen-further-hitting-stocks.html?__source=twitter%7CmainMaserati wrote:
We might get there, but it won't matter unless you are a trader.
Speaking of which, I am thinking of buying some levered etf's
^“I think that we’re in a late cycle and I think the market can only be termed by the way I look at evolution of market prices as a bear market,” Gundlach said. “The market hasn’t gone anywhere in 15 months.”
Sure, from record high to record high after a 10+ yr bull market.
His window is arbitrary. It has gone up bigly over both 5 and 25 months.
NYSE Composite, Industrials, Trannies, Dow and Russell 2,000 little to no progress since the market high of January 2018. What you are seeing is a handful of stocks that have carried the market since 12/24/2018. Most likely will lead the next leg down.
All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through May 6, 2019. The top performer is the Shanghai SSE with a 17.90% gain and in second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 16.83%. In third is Tokyo's Nikkei 225 with a gain of 11.21%. Coming in last is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 7.55%.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
NYSE Composite, Industrials, Trannies, Dow and Russell 2,000 little to no progress since the market high of January 2018. What you are seeing is a handful of stocks that have carried the market since 12/24/2018. Most likely will lead the next leg down.
The S & P has gone up 400% since 2009. Do you have any idea what that has meant for people in the market?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
NYSE Composite, Industrials, Trannies, Dow and Russell 2,000 little to no progress since the market high of January 2018. What you are seeing is a handful of stocks that have carried the market since 12/24/2018. Most likely will lead the next leg down.
So if you’re holding stock you bought on Jan 22 2018, you’d be flat or up a bit, not including dividends. And if you hold stock you bought Dec 24 2018, you’re likely up nicely.
The point is, it depends on when you buy and sell. Using specific dates as generalizations for the market illustrates a lack of understanding of the history of market performance.
No, the point is we are in a bear market. What has happened since 12/24/2018 is a rally in a bear market, until proved otherwise.
Shouldn’t you first have to prove that we’re in a bear market?
No, you prove we are still in a bull market.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
No, the point is we are in a bear market.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
No, you prove we are still in a bull market.
You say we are in a bear market, yet you cannot support that with facts. Instead you weakly try to put the onus on those who have asked you for proof of your claim.
Do you not ever tire of being dishonest so much?
A paragraph from "Bear Market definition" in Investopedia:
"What Causes a Bear Market?
The causes of a bear market often vary, but in general, a weak or slowing or sluggish economy will bring with it a bear market. The signs of a weak or slowing economy are typically low employment, low disposable income, weak productivity and a drop in business profits. In addition, any intervention by the government in the economy can also trigger a bear market. For example, changes in the tax rate or in the federal funds rate can lead to a bear market. Similarly, a drop in investor confidence may also signal the onset of a bear market. When investors believe something is about to happen, they will take action — in this case, selling off shares to avoid losses. "
This simply does not apply to our current economic situation at all. Nothing about it does.
Much more applicable was a Correction rather than a bear market rally. Again from Investopedia:
"Bear Market vs. Correction
"A bear market should not be confused with a correction, which is a short-term trend that has a duration of fewer than two months. While corrections offer a good time for value investors to find an entry point into stock markets, bear markets rarely provide suitable points of entry."
You choose, but to date, it clearly seems like we experienced a correction within a long bull market, far more than evidencing any signs of a sustained bear market.
link:
Most indices are below the previous highs, unable (yet) to advance higher. The enthusiasm for the market has been shaken, but not broken (yet). I believe we are in a bear market. If, all the indices advance above their previous highs in a broad advance that would change my current view.
Your “view” doesn’t matter here. As seattle points out, there are definitions for bear and bull markets. So please stop using the term “bear market” unless you are willing and able to support it with facts that reflect the definition.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Most indices are below the previous highs, unable (yet) to advance higher. The enthusiasm for the market has been shaken, but not broken (yet). I believe we are in a bear market. If, all the indices advance above their previous highs in a broad advance that would change my current view.
NASDAQ and SP500 did make new all time highs. It's not a bear market rally when you start making new highs. Fact of the matter is we just had the first ever V shaped recovery in the history of the stock market. This is a new era of US monetary policy and still somewhat young. Also, we have a retard as president that can tweet the market +/- 2% on any given day.
People looking at historical results should take caution because this is a new era of algorithm driven trading and Fed/government secured monetary policy. Debt and all the fundamentals you once loved and held true don't matter anymore (or at least, they matter less today). There's no reason to believe we won't be right back at 26k for the Dow this time next year. How many of you actually thought on Christmas Eve it would recover to near all time highs in only like 3 months time? Be careful out there
While there may be some bumps and twists in the road, it still goes to the same destination.
I’m actually hoping for a down day, I might pick up some things to sell into the inevitable recovery.
If b&h does pan out, I will have my cake, and eat it too.
If things really tank, I am ready to buy the dividend portfolio I have been developing.
Racket wrote:
Also, we have a retard as president that can tweet the market +/- 2% on any given day
Agreed with everything, but the only difference is that this prez has twitter. Last 4 have been absolute morons, all of them.
Tweets can send it down, they can also send it up, that’s not Trump, that is algos and young moron traders. Trick is to figure out patterns, and timing. Good trading environment—again. Might have to get off my butt and take advantage of some easy moves
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
No, the point is we are in a bear market. What has happened since 12/24/2018 is a rally in a bear market, until proved otherwise.
You forgot to add your 4 plus years theory of a major collapse of 50% or more "SOON".
A Bear Market should have no impact on you.