J. Hardy wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Of course there are plenty of financial pundits talking about why the yield curve inversion doesn’t matter even though it has foretold six of the last six recessions.
Plenty? I don’t think so. Certainly there are some saying it doesn’t matter, but there are always those that will support a minority position even when it obviously doesn’t make sense (this thread is a perfect example). But most talking heads are being honest about what this may mean.
The spin i've heard is that the timing of a recession, if one were to occur, is also key. The timing has been something like 9 months to a couple of years out, so presumably, even if it did foretell a recession, it might not be for a while, and it might be a mild recession at that.