Ghost of Igloi wrote:
mister wrote:
As you always say, the important thing is where is it at today (3 years later). Well?
I know! Like you claim, most investors sold at those lows.
No mister, as I have said, investors as a class cannot avoid the downturn since each share of stock must be owned by someone thru each moment in time. Why do you think the 20 year equity return is well below the historical trend? Hey mister, if you can navigate this period to your advantage I congratulate you. I just don’t believe that will be the case for investors as a whole. We will see if a bloated and extended market can squeeze out a few more months of alpha.
So, let's be clear here. You, Igy, are saying that since every share must be held by an investor at any given time, we must conceptualize investors as a class, and not as individual entities that can buy and sell, thereby maximizing or detracting from their returns. Okay.
But then you say that the share prices are not to be viewed collectively as a continuum but as discrete segments, and you are fond of calling up those segments comprising the downturns. We know those segments well as you have referenced them repeatedly. And you reference them as a harbinger of what is going to happen any day now, as you have been saying for quite a while.
So, taken together, on the one hand you advocate for a holistic view of investors (as a class) but repeatedly call up segments of the market which support your view of investing in the markets. And that is what is frustrating - you insist on a global view in one hand (of investors as a class) while insisting that we only pay attention to a segment of the stock market performance (to the exclusion of the long term appreciation of the market as a whole). That just seems like you're talking out of both sides of your mouth.
On the other hand, why not just admit that the markets rebound from downturns, or have in the past, eventually? That would be consistent with your views of investors as a class. Advocate for the whole market performance just as you insist on advocating for investors as a whole class.
In short, your argument is rooted in a mixed and inconsistent strategy - a globalistic view of investors that focus on discrete market segments to the exclusion of a more global view.
In reality, most investors will buy at different times, and there returns will be mixed, with some downturns figured in to temper the well-timed buys. That would be the way to conceptualize the effects of a downturn, if you are going to focus on certain market segments - in this case, the downturns.