Mouth Breather wrote:
Feels to me that one 3% down day and the bottom will fall out of this thing. Feels like people are just barely long, kicking and scratching because they have to be.
Trillions of dollars, with millions wanting to be the hero and sell before the collapse. And we're all singed from December, gun shy.
The govt is back open, earnings are growing at a double-digit rate, p/e numbers are dropping, the Fed is backing off... What’s not to like?
I hear you, and you aren't making stuff up. But. earnings will soon be growing at a low single digit rate, the Fed may or may not back off (it's not just the fed funds rate, it's also whether the fed keeps shrinking its balance sheet), and statistically speaking, investing when unemployment is this low is a very low return proposition.
it's pretty much a 'we only go down from here' or 'this is as good as it gets' argument.
usually the economy is in recession 18 months after hitting peak employment. I suspect we are close to that now, and the market predicts things.