Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Yutre wrote:
Hussman disagrees.
Explain how Hussman agrees, and to what does he agree.
Don’t you want to ask that second part first?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Yutre wrote:
Hussman disagrees.
Explain how Hussman agrees, and to what does he agree.
Don’t you want to ask that second part first?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://mobile.twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1086332783931183104
Isn’t “sell high” the whole idea?
Earnings Scorecard: For Q4 2018 (with 11% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results for the quarter), 76% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 56% have reported a positive revenue surprise.
Wall St. Erased All of 2018’s Losses in the First 3 Weeks of 2019
That's the headline in today's Sunday edition of the New York Times (read: major buy signal to masses).
And when you open the article, the included headline reads: "The Stock Market Is Making a Comeback. Was It Something the Fed Said?"
link (not sure but you may need the subscription to read it):
Anyway, the bull is back. Long live the bull. All Hail!
Earnie wrote:
Earnings Scorecard: For Q4 2018 (with 11% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results for the quarter), 76% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 56% have reported a positive revenue surprise.
“With earnings season underway, there is support in the short-term for asset prices but remember that earnings are only beating sharply downgraded estimates. (This is the equivalent of companies scoring a 71 after the level for an “A” was reduced from 90 to 70).”
-Lance Roberts
seattle prattle wrote:
Wall St. Erased All of 2018’s Losses in the First 3 Weeks of 2019
That's the headline in today's Sunday edition of the New York Times (read: major buy signal to masses).
And when you open the article, the included headline reads: "The Stock Market Is Making a Comeback. Was It Something the Fed Said?"
link (not sure but you may need the subscription to read it):
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/20/business/stock-market-recovery-federal-reserve.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=HomepageAnyway, the bull is back. Long live the bull. All Hail!
Bear market started 9/20/2018. A different view of where we are likely headed:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bulls-take-round-one-01-18-19/^^ dead end link ^^
Nothing there wrote:
^^ dead end link ^^
Sorry, something along the same lines or a re-test of the 12/24 lows:
https://northmantrader.com/2019/01/20/coming-soon-retest/Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Nothing there wrote:
^^ dead end link ^^
Sorry, something along the same lines or a re-test of the 12/24 lows:
https://northmantrader.com/2019/01/20/coming-soon-retest/
They certainly failed the first test.
OK, for the same article Dufus:
https://northmantrader.com/2019/01/22/the-freak-chart/
That was easy.....
Bought DWDP yesterday,
seattle prattle wrote:
Wall St. Erased All of 2018’s Losses in the First 3 Weeks of 2019
That's the headline in today's Sunday edition of the New York Times (read: major buy signal to masses).
And when you open the article, the included headline reads: "The Stock Market Is Making a Comeback. Was It Something the Fed Said?"
link (not sure but you may need the subscription to read it):
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/20/business/stock-market-recovery-federal-reserve.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=HomepageAnyway, the bull is back. Long live the bull. All Hail!
Hmmmmm, people getting extremely bullish despite trade war and debt ceiling coming up March 1 + government shutdown?
Time to go short again.
All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through January 22, 2019. The top performer is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a 7.46% gain and in second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 4.90%. In third is Germany's DAXK with a gain of 4.82%. Coming in last is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 1.54%.
Earnie wrote:
Earnings Scorecard: For Q4 2018 (with 11% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results for the quarter), 76% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 56% have reported a positive revenue surprise.
“When we get to the end of 2019 and we actually get estimates to where earnings should be by the end of 2019, the entire benefit of the tax cut will be erased because of the decline trend in earnings. So despite the fact that the tax cut in December of 2017 was touted as one of the greatest things for corporations ever -- it was supposed to result in a massive boost to earnings -- but ever since then, earnings have been on the decline. That's why the market didn't even respond last year to these tax cuts. Because, at the end of the day, we're not creating more revenue at the top line. Instead, we're eroding bottom line profitability.
And here's another bit of data for you. Corporate profits, as reported by NIPA, by the government agency that tracks corporate profits, profits before tax have not grown in eight years. They're at the same level currently (as of the end of last quarter) as they were eight years ago. Only corporate profits after tax have reached a new record. And that only occurred in the last quarter of last year.
This tells a very important story: tthe revenue growth at the top line of corporations has only grown by about 45-50% since 2009 on a cumulative basis. That's not annual; that's the cumulative total. But yet, corporate profits at the bottom line (i.e. after tax), because of all the account gimmickry and jiggery that goes on, has exploded by over 350%.
So let's take a look at what happens at the top line. Profits before taxes has not grown in eight years. That's in line with what you would expect from frevenue growth. Because of expenses, everything else in business is drawing basically at the rate of inflation, the rate of employment, et cetera, so we're getting some deterioration there in terms of that. But if we have very weak revenue growth, it's not surprising that bottom line corporate profitability hasn't grown before we strip out the tax manipulation.
Which is why stocks are expensive across the board. Basically, on every measure that you look at, with the exception of free cashflow, they're expensive. They're running about two times price to sales, some of the highest levels in history for S&P stocks. And with price to earnings valuations, even given the recent end of 2018 correction, we're still trading on a ratio of 28x earnings. That's going to get more expensive as we move into this year, because earnings are going to deteriorate further.
When valuations truly contract, we're going to be looking at somewhere between 10 to 12x earnings on stocks in the S&P. That'll be your time to buy it. But that will require a 50-60% decline in the S&P from today's levels.”
—Lance Roberts
Chip stocks. Chip stocks are leading the market now. LRCX, INTC, etc. I would not have predicted that.
On a day the Trump admin goes on CNBC and says that china and the US are miles apart on trade talks.
when the market is hard to pound down and cyclical stocks are doing well, that leaves room to be bullish.
although lord knows there are many reasons to sell and get 2% in a savings account. I've sure been tempted to do that the past few months.
The earnings growth rate has been in double digits for the last 5 quarters.
Earnings Scorecard: For Q4 2018 (with 22% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results for the quarter), 71% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 59% have reported a positive revenue surprise.