Ghost of Igloi wrote:
A different way of saying what agip said is that the markets historically have not rewarded primarily intelligence, they have rewarded primarily compliant, and largely passive, participation.
So let me get this right, compliant investing is the way to go because thinking is actually a negative. I suppose it is rewarded today since there is no evaluation of securities in passive investing. Trillions of dollars are bet that not thinking will be rewarded and discretion in price is to be ignored. Actually agree with you that most people are investing this way and a reason I will bet that is rather foolish.
so...you are saying that it's different this time. that this time, moving in and out, using security selection, etc will work better than simple indexing.
that is exactly the kind of thinking I'm trying to avoid.
No that is not my view at all. I don’t trade personally or professionally. My view is that valuations make stocks and many bonds less attractive than T-Bills and hedging strategies. That said I would never recommend sitting out of an allocation to all of the above. Summary then, lower than typical allocation to stocks, longer term bonds, low quality bonds, and higher weights to short term high quality bonds and hedging strategies.