From two years ago, this analyst looked at high margin debt and figured based on the past, a bear market in equities was ALREADY under way. Instead we are up more than 30%.
Hint: there are no sure-thing omens or tells. What worked in the past to predict problems...may or may not work this time.
3/2016: "So margin debt right now is sending a very clear signal that investors have recently become very greedy. This suggests returns over the next several years should be very poor. Finally, the trend in margin debt also suggests that a new bear market is likely underway. If history is to rhyme, that means a decline of at least 20% in the S&P 500 is very likely to occur sometime soon. And because of the sheer size of the potential forced supply that could come to market in this sort of environment, that could easily be just the beginning."