Which has nothing to do with Shiller's CAPE 10. That’s my point.
I disagree. Valuation models have a high correlation with future returns as I demonstrated. It may not matter to you because you are assuming 130 year stock market average. You will not live 130 years of that I am sure. And as I posted to Flagpole a poor sequence of return early in retirement can lead to portfolio failure. I posted this piece by Moshe Milevsky before:
Furthermore, a 30 year old beginning investor may be better off sticking with the averages. I consider it a non-optimal strategy for someone with significant savings and over age 50.