When will we see ANY new world record in men's distance?

Read my post again, big fella.

The numbers I put are as far off, relative to distance, of the respective WRs as 7:29.00 is to 7:20.67.

I'm guessing neither reading nor math are your strong points, so I'll let it slide.

If these records were made honestly (without PEDs) we should expect them to be broken regularly in smaller and smaller increments. They longer they last without being approached or broken the less credible they become. Another ten years like this and the whole set of unbroken so-called world records will be meaningless. In other words, records are made to be broken and if they're not we eventually forget about them, kind of the way we disregard the records made by the Chinese women in the early 90s.

The rocket.. wrote:

Ezekiel Kemboi could get the 3000SC WR anytime he wants to if he would just finish in lane 1

Finishing in lane 5 is all for show. It only adds about about 1.4m distance or .2s to his time. Do the math.

Oops, my math is off! Finishing in lane 5 only adds 10cm (4 inches) to the distance and about 0.01s to his time. Next to nothing!

Assumptions:

1) final straightaway length = 100m

2) 1m lane width

3) moving at an average of 60s/400m on the final straightaway

Hint: use Pythagoras' theorem

Conclusion: I good show-off tactic

My reading and math skills are pretty good but I did realize after I posted that I had read your post a little too quickly - my apologies.

I do, however, stand by my basic point and will add a few details.

Let's start with the alltime outdoor 3000m list [from IAAF]

1 7:20.67 Daniel KOMEN 17 MAY 1976 KEN KEN 1 Rieti 01 SEP 1996

2 7:23.09 Hicham EL GUERROUJ 14 SEP 1974 MAR MAR 1 Bruxelles 03 SEP 1999

3 7:25.02 Ali SAÏDI-SIEF 15 MAR 1978 ALG ALG 1 Monaco 18 AUG 2000

4 7:25.09 Haile GEBRSELASSIE 18 APR 1973 ETH ETH 1 Bruxelles 28 AUG 1998

5 7:25.11 Noureddine MORCELI 28 FEB 1970

ALG ALG 1 Monaco 02 AUG 1994

7:25.16 Daniel KOMEN 17 MAY 1976 KEN KEN 1 Monaco 10 AUG 1996

7:25.54 Haile GEBRSELASSIE 18 APR 1973 ETH ETH 1 Monaco 08 AUG 1998

(6) 7:25.79 Kenenisa BEKELE 13 JUN 1982 ETH ETH 1 Stockholm 07 AUG 2007

7:25.87 Daniel KOMEN 17 MAY 1976 KEN KEN 1 Bruxelles 23 AUG 1996

7:26.02 Haile GEBRSELASSIE 18 APR 1973 ETH ETH 1 Bruxelles 22 AUG 1997

7:26.03 Haile GEBRSELASSIE 18 APR 1973 ETH ETH 1 Helsinki 10 JUN 1999

(7) 7:26.62 Mohammed MOURHIT 10 OCT 1970 BEL BEL 2 Monaco 18 AUG 2000

7:26.69 Kenenisa BEKELE 13 JUN 1982 ETH ETH 1 Sheffield 15 JUL 2007

(8) 7:27.18 Moses KIPTANUI 1 OCT 1970 KEN KEN 1 Monaco 25 JUL 1995

(9) 7:27.26 Yenew ALAMIREW 27 MAY 1990 ETH ETH 1 Doha 06 MAY 2011

I went all the way down to Alamirew because for all that he's the #9 performer, he's nearly 2% off the world record and he's the top ranked guy currently running at/near his lifetime bests.

In other words, no one has even approached this record for a while, and for all that it isn't a standard outdoor event, the best guys have taken serious shots at it.

And none of those best guys have gotten closer than El G's 7:23.09 in 1999, a year when he was running great and, among many other things, set the 2000m record in 4:44.79.

Ok, 2000m is a rarely contested distance, but in my opinion that record is even further out there in some ways than Komen's 3000m, yet El G, who had PRs of 3:26.0 for 1500m and 4:44.79 for 2000m couldn't get within 2 seconds of Komen's 7:20.69 in a year when he was at his very best.

So if not El G, who?

Well, possibly Mo, because a guy who can run 3:28.81 for 1500m a few weeks before winning a world title at 10000m is potentially a freakish talent with the right mix of attributes to bring that record down. But only if he [and his coach] decide it's worth going after.

Bottom line: if Komen's outdoor 3000m record is soft, which record from 800m - marathon is clearly harder?

3000m

10000m

5000m

1500m

800m

From hardest to easiest (not easy at all)

Bad Wigins wrote:

Gebrhiwet, Alamirew and Rop will get close to 12:37 in the next 2 years.

Gebrhiwet would also have closed Moscow in 52 if Lagat hadn't got in his way. Most talented 5000 runner in the world, but unlucky and tactically clumsy.

Mo Farah would never get anywhere near any distance record and he's not going to try. He's turning to marathons and good riddance, he has turned the 5000 and 10000 into a snail-paced farce.

Kiprop could have hit 3:25 in Monaco but his timing was off and he faded badly. He is the best bet for a WR.

Nobody cares about the mile WR. The long-obsolete mile was revived as a PR stunt in the 50's, and then 3:50 kept it interesting for a couple more decades, but nobody's going to break 3:40. Go ask the average person on the street what the WR is. The mile is dead.

god, you're one of the shittiest posters on this site

I'm not gonna say I 100% agreed with Wiggo's first 4 points, but I thought there were arguable. Thought his fifth point was a bit more problematic and spelled out my issues with it earlier. Certainly wouldn't call him "one of the sh**iest posters" on this very uneven board - what has you so down on him?

eerewrewrerw wrote:

Seems like Farah could grab the 1500m record most easily... two seconds off in his first real attempt and not trained for it.

That would be the weirdest world record ever.

well it may be their training, if they did dope why didnt we check? or maybe races these days are just too slow?

TLW wrote:

TLW wrote:

The 3k will last another 30 years.

Let me correct myself:

The 3k will last another 30 years unless there is another drug released similar to EPO.

What will be different in 2044?

Xfit_guy_the_real_one_1 wrote:

Look no further than crossfit. Athletes there like Rich Froning have constantly been improving their marks year in year out. Granted it's still a rather young sport but impressive, none the less.

Not hard to improve on a shitty 21:30 5K and a 65 second 400m or whatever the heck he got in them.

Bad Wigins wrote:

[...]

Nobody cares about the mile WR. The long-obsolete mile was revived as a PR stunt in the 50's, and then 3:50 kept it interesting for a couple more decades, but nobody's going to break 3:40. Go ask the average person on the street what the WR is. The mile is dead.

So "the average person on the street" knows what the Men's 1500m world record is? Give me a break. The Average Joe wouldn't know 3:26 from 3:49. The mile perhaps is a distraction from track fans familiar and accustomed to the metric system and the 1500m and such increments, but the difference is irrelevant as it pertains to "average" people "on the street." Maybe, MAYBE there are lay people in Europe, maybe America, who are familiar with metric track times, because of all-round knowledge of sports, but I haven't met many in my life.

People go on and on and on on this message board about how the 3k outdoor world record by Komen is this and is that--now, granted, all the men's world records, and, definitely Komen's record, is very very impressive, no doubt. But Bekele's 5k world record is better. Have any of you watched videos of both races? Komen was paced very well for the majority of his record attempt. Bekele was paced really sh***ily for a measly portion of his record attempt, and then had to run most of it alone. For Komen's record to be considered stronger, it would have to be, relatively (by the standards of the respective event) much much much faster than Bekele's record, and it's not.

I think a big reason, returning to the OP's original topic--a big obstacle in progress over distance world records is a lack of significant monetary and cultural incentive. For distance events, there's way more money, fame and glory in the marathon-length races. And even then, in the grand scheme of things, distance running doesn't get a lot of coverage, respect, esteem and monetary incentive, which I think is a darn shame.

Of course, some may say, that this has always been the case--and, admittedly, I am quite clueless about historically how much cultural endorsement and esteem and financial incentive distance running held--and that this obstacle has not impeded progress in the past.

someone had to do it wrote:

god, you're one of the shittiest posters on this site

I say that Xfitguy_the_real_one_1 earns that distinction: he's a veritable projectile pooper.

The NCAA championship has been all-metric on the track since at least 1956. The mile started dying when the olympics started using 500 meter tracks with a 3-lap event.

The 4-minute barrier was not considered impossible, considering it was lowered from 4:06 to 4:01 in less than ten years. It was simply inconvenient because there was a big war going on, and then a decade or so to rebuild from the war. Then when runners started getting to 4:01 again, the inevitable sub-4 was hyped up to make it big news. If Haag hadn't been banned, he'd have had sub-4 years earlier and nobody would have paid any attention. That's another way the olympics killed the mile, by banning "professionals" from major competition.

You're Ventolin 3. Nothing but nasty. But yes, compared to you I am a god.

More than a few would get 9.58 right.

Xfit_guy_the_real_one_1 wrote:

Look no further than crossfit. Athletes there like Rich Froning have constantly been improving their marks year in year out. Granted it's still a rather young sport but impressive, none the less.

What a joke. Any decathlete, most 400 runners, every skill position player in the NFL, pro soccer and tennis players and a lot of swimmers could murder any cross-fit guy at that crap - it's a great workout, and the dudes are in great shape, but a bunch of studly weekend warriors at best.

Kipketer_Pumpkin_Eater wrote:

People go on and on and on on this message board about how the 3k outdoor world record by Komen is this and is that--now, granted, all the men's world records, and, definitely Komen's record, is very very impressive, no doubt. But Bekele's 5k world record is better. Have any of you watched videos of both races? Komen was paced very well for the majority of his record attempt. Bekele was paced really sh***ily for a measly portion of his record attempt, and then had to run most of it alone. For Komen's record to be considered stronger, it would have to be, relatively (by the standards of the respective event) much much much faster than Bekele's record, and it's not.

Komen's record relative to the previous world record is much more impressive than Bekele's. Komen improved on the 3k standard by more than 5 SECONDS -- about 1% faster than the previous record. Bekele ran only 2 seconds faster than Gebrselassie -- this over a longer distance and only improved the record about .26% -- a quarter of what Komen did.

Will there even be a single GOOD 10000 meters next year? With no global champs and it not being a Diamond League I'd say we might not even see a sub 27 time...