longjack wrote:
i have this race going 28 min pace down to 26 low pace, maybe two 800m surges and one 2k surge and a mad last 600m.
i suppose that brings in a result somewhere in the middle. like 27 low plus or minus. ok, how about 27.05 fitting in well with history.
This sounds about right, however they may push from 1000 or 1200 out to try a long drive. If not that is called a serious misunderstanding of probability for medal.
How many times has Rupp had a less than stellar race or period and yet bounce back when it counts? Probability leans towards him being at or near his best at worlds.
On their best days, how many runners currently could run as fast as Rupp and Farah could in an all out rabbited race? I have to believe that Rupp is capable of 26:45 or better now and Farah 26:40 or better. They are also both 3:50 or better milers. They also can close out in :52 or better in a slow race. It's pretty hard to beat those credentials.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of uneven pace. A lot of surging and backing off and frustration as the end of the race approaches and the group of kenyans, ethiopians, eritreans etc. knows that there are still two lions ready to run.