What do you think the world record for every event, 100m-marathon will be by the year 2063?
What do you think the world record for every event, 100m-marathon will be by the year 2063?
100 - 9.95
200 - 20.10
400 - 44.05
800 - 1:42.55
1500 - 3:31
5000 - 12:57
10,000 27:08
Seems legit
100: 9.54 some freak like Bolt will come around again
200: 19.11ditto here
400: 43.12 this record could be taken by Kirani James in the next few years possibly.
800: 1:40.77 this record can go lower still. Maybe Rudisha can build on it but it can go lower.
1500: 3:25.68 Kiprop will be the first man to break 3:26 but someone else will lower it in 15-20 years
5000: 12:34.81 the current WR won't be touched for awhile because time trials are rare, but a few dominating talents will emerge and have a race similar to Paris 2012 and four men will break 12:40
10000: 26:11 this will be the last of the records to go down
Marathon: 2:02:58. Could be like Boston a few years ago where conditions are perfect and a few guys go for it. Needs the most luck to go down.
110H: 12.76
400H: 46.56 haven't seen this record come close to being broken in awhile but someone will appear eventually
from the future wrote:
100: 9.54 some freak like Bolt will come around again
200: 19.11ditto here
400: 43.12 this record could be taken by Kirani James in the next few years possibly.
800: 1:40.77 this record can go lower still. Maybe Rudisha can build on it but it can go lower.
1500: 3:25.68 Kiprop will be the first man to break 3:26 but someone else will lower it in 15-20 years
5000: 12:34.81 the current WR won't be touched for awhile because time trials are rare, but a few dominating talents will emerge and have a race similar to Paris 2012 and four men will break 12:40
10000: 26:11 this will be the last of the records to go down
Marathon: 2:02:58. Could be like Boston a few years ago where conditions are perfect and a few guys go for it. Needs the most luck to go down.
110H: 12.76
400H: 46.56 haven't seen this record come close to being broken in awhile but someone will appear eventually
you shouldn't expect that all of these records will be broken
some will, that's for sure. but you've set too big of improvements.
assuming that drug testing gets better, we'd be luck to see a WR go down every two years.
and it's very likely that some current records get scratched, like if bolt goes down.
Its like the stock market. Performance level may fluctuate but in time it will always go higher. ALWAYS.
For comparison - world records from 50 years ago (as of 31 December 1963)
100m 10.0 Harry Jerome Canada
200m 20.3* Henry Carr USA *en route to 200yards
400m 44.9* Adolph Plummer USA *en route to 400yards
800m 1.44.3* Peter Snell New Zealand *en route to 880 yards
1500m 3.35.6 Herb Elliot Australia
1mile 3.54.4 Peter Snell New Zealand
3000m s/c 8.29.6 Gaston Roelants Belgium
5000m 13.35.0 Vladimr Kuts USSR
10000m 28.15.6 Ron Clarke Australia
Marathon 2.14.28 Leonard Eldon USA
Some of this depends on if/how the parameters change. For example, PED's could become legal, or at least some of them might. Another possibility is they come up with a track surface that is harder and/or better for records somehow. We just don't know the technology changes that might happen in the next 50 years.
i think steeplechase could go down relatively soon
After Ingrid Christiansen had been the first woman to go sub 31 with a 30:59 for the 10000 performance in 1985 she was asked by her coach what she thought the world record would be in 20 years, this according to an old interview in RW Sweden, as i remember she said it went something like this:
C: How fast do you think they'll run a generation from now?
I: I dunno, maybe close to 30 minutes, possibly even 29 high.
C: So you think it will be possible to run sub 30 in the future?
I: Yeah, why not.
C: But if you think it's at all possible for a woman to do that, to improve it that much further, why don't you think it's possible for you to do it NOW?
The next year she lowered the record to 30:13!
A 46 second lowering after one year of thinking scaling another minute was actually possible.
Small leaps build upon what has already been proven can be done. Big leaps start in the mind of someone exeptional with "yeah, why the hell not, I can do that..."
50 years is a looooong time, all these records will be wiped away in 10 years, so in 50, we'll be seeing a lot of things that are unfathamable rigtht now.
100m 9.3x
200m 18.8
400m 41.5
800m 1:38:xx
1500m 3.22:xx
1mile 3.40:xx
3000m 7:15:xx
5000m 12:29:xx
10000m 26:05:xx
Marathon 2:00:30
I'll check back on this thread in 2063 and see how close I get. Just need the Brojos to keep this site going for the next 1/2 century, by then it might be run by the Flotrack boys though.
100 - 7.97
200 - 15.81
400 - 31.79
800 - 1:04.44
1500 - 2:00.19
5000 - 6:41.32
10,000 - 13:22.66
Many will suspect that the record-setting athletes are cyborgs or androids.
great question.
100 - 9.45
200 - 18.80
400 - 42.6
800 - 1:38
1500 - 3:22
3000 - 7:19
5k - 12:29
10k - 26:01
marathon - 2:02:10
By then, drug doping will be a thing of the past and people will be genetic doping. Possibly even doing this from birth. Even if illegal, it will be virtually undetectable. There will be genetic freaks far more freaky than the naturally occurring genetic freaks we have now. 50 years is enough time for this to take effect for many years before being well established for a generation that comes along in 30 years.
So someone will genetically modify a "person" who has a 16" torso, 50" inseam, huge lungs and heart, and very thin legs. This person will run 11:10 for 5000m and equivalent at other distances.
Or maybe the IAAF will remove all restrictions on prosthetics and people will just start bolting on blades below their feet. Always great energy return, none of that annoying fatigue. That should propel someone to a spectacular marathon. Maybe sub 2:00. This could happen any day now.
Eldon's record will never be beaten, running so fast that observers compressed and garbled his name, Edelin. It is amazing that at the time it seemed impossible to break 2:10 in the marathon.
Sir Bastion Newbold wrote:
For comparison - world records from 50 years ago (as of 31 December 1963)
Marathon 2.14.28 Leonard Eldon USA
100m 9.36
200m 18.91
400m 41.88
800m 1:39.3
1500m 3:22.9
mile: 3:40.4
3000m: 7:13
5000m: 12:26
10,000m: 25:54
Marathon: 2:01:28
So someone will genetically modify a "person" who has a 16" torso, 50" inseam, huge lungs and heart, and very thin legs. This person will run 11:10 for 5000m and equivalent at other distances.
You can't both have a huge heart and lungs and 16 inch torso- that's tiny!. In order to hold a large lung volume the torso must be substantially bigger than that. The hypothetical person you described would have tiny lungs and a terrible VO2max with a 16 inch torso.
8.79
17.01
39.20
1:34.99
3:29.45
6:47.15
11:46.3
24:59.8
1:58:22.2
I believe Buddy used the Edelen spelling of his name all thru his life.
ggilder wrote:
Eldon's record will never be beaten, running so fast that observers compressed and garbled his name, Edelin. It is amazing that at the time it seemed impossible to break 2:10 in the marathon.
Sir Bastion Newbold wrote:For comparison - world records from 50 years ago (as of 31 December 1963)
Marathon 2.14.28 Leonard Eldon USA
wrote:
100 - 7.97
200 - 15.81
400 - 31.79
800 - 1:04.44
1500 - 2:00.19
5000 - 6:41.32
10,000 - 13:22.66
Many will suspect that the record-setting athletes are cyborgs or androids.
Those are horse-racing times!