Impending Drug Positives

Well, what I meant was, how much would you expect to improve by ramping up to a serious training level. I.e. weights with serious co-ordination speed training. And then plyos and such.

Bolt at his plateau I see as being similar to myself at age 16-17, when I'd grown to mature height and hit 24.0 and numerous 11.9 for years at that point, but then plateau'd as an amateur. Being muscularly weak, I imagine that I could have gained 0.5-100m, 1.0-200m at least, by doing a serious weight training program in a gym, combined with some plyometrics to put on some muscle bulk and then utilise it's benefits. But I would still have been nowhere near as strong as elite athletes, so perhaps add that on again after another few years of training and I would reach my natural trained limit of like sub-11, sub-22 at usual peak age. With doping I could probably get to near elite level performance? But not sub-10/20? At this point I imagine I would look like an elite athlete with large muscle bulk and definition, although I can't imagine ever being that strong haha. I imagine 10.2-3, sub 10.5 and sub 21.0?

Now apply this to Bolt, if indeed he fits this profile (he was leaner then). Seriously adding strength would give him less than me as he is already at elite level, so if he is clean then we can see a clear improvement of 0.35/0.7 from his unweighted already elite self.

I do find it fascinating as to what would hint as to how people respond to the drugs, what makes some respond more? They have a good frame but not enough natural production response to training? Or resilience to training? It could be one of many things. Maybe it's even muscle fibre type and amount. Sprinting is a certain type of speed/strength/power, I would be appalling at arm strength contests/events yet a lot of elite athletes seem to have good arm strength to aid turnover. Yet I can do pull ups quite easily while a lot or people I know seemingly can't (probably just less body weight to pull up).

Also you used the 10.03 time again, lol. He didn't run 10.03 as a junior, no, blackcard mentioned him running 10.3s. But he did run a WYR and WJR - and what was it. 19.93 as a 16/17 year old - that's frankly off the charts! Gay and them would be well behind at that age. And then they all improve by like 0.35/0.70 @ 100/200 as they turn into men/elite athletes/train seriously and gain muslce bulk and power.

The facts state that Bolt is at least the most naturally talented athlete ever, at younger ages, so unless everyone was doping then (could have, see Marion Jones debate), it's not a huge stretch of the imagination to imagine he would still be the best in adulthood (and it seems the others catch up a bit when they mature later on)

I did admit, at the time I had never heard of her and was surprised at the victory, especially the distance 0.2. That's some Marion Jones-esque domination.

Found some pics of her in 2008.

http://www.all-athletics.com/photos/torri-edwards-muna-lee-shelly-ann-fraser

http://www.all-athletics.com/photos/shelly-ann-fraser

http://www.all-athletics.com/photos/shelley-ann-fraser-aneisha-mclaughlin

http://www.all-athletics.com/photos/dn-gala-womens-100-m-finish

(Jeter on the right in this one)

Gotta say that Muna Lee looks very elegant, without significant muscle bulk.

Looking at her profile on alltime athletics, it seems she had 3 years not reaching her potential, before breaking through. These at age 17-20. Very similar to Bolt this. Also same timing.

Results for the race can be found here on the site:

DN Galan Stockholm (SWE) - Tuesday, Jul 22, 2008

1 Lauryn Williams USA 11.10 20

2 Marshevet Hooker USA 11.13 16

3 Chandra Sturrup BAH 11.14 14

4 Bianca Knight USA 11.15 12

5 Debbie Ferguson-McKenzie BAH 11.15 10

6 Muna Lee USA 11.18 8

7 Sheri-Ann Brooks JAM 11.19 6

8 Shalonda Solomon USA 11.19 4

Official Results - Women - 100 Metres - Race1 - Wind : -1.3 m/s

1 Lauryn Williams USA 11.10 20

2 Marshevet Hooker USA 11.13 16

3 Chandra Sturrup BAH 11.14 14

4 Muna Lee USA 11.18 8

5 Shelly-Ann Fraser JAM 11.20

6 Torri Edwards USA 11.21

7 Sherone Simpson JAM 11.25

8 Carmelita Jeter USA 11.27

Official Results - Women - 100 Metres - Race2 - Wind : +1.3 m/s

1 Bianca Knight USA 11.15 12

2 Debbie Ferguson-McKenzie BAH 11.15 10

3 Sheri-Ann Brooks JAM 11.19 6

4 Shalonda Solomon USA 11.19 4

5 Kelly-Ann Baptiste TRI 11.20

6 Me'Lisa Barber USA 11.25

7 LaShauntea Moore USA 11.28

8 Mechelle Lewis USA 11.33

Official Results - Women - 100 Metres - Race3 - Wind : +1.8 m/s

1 Angela Williams USA 11.20

So she looks to be in 11.10 shape, and on that day maybe you could say Lauryn Williams was the favourite, with long timers Sturrup and Ferguson looking good,along with the US runners including Lee. Jeter is beaten by 3 other athletes there so can't have expected to walk onto the team (at least individual, close for relays). SAFP's wiki history also includes relay heat running in 2007 WC, and junior champs in 2005/2002. But that's a quick improvement of 0.3 to get to 10.80 basic shape by the OF, which was what 1 month away? Although the improvement is only 0.1 in every other round at the championship. A bit of a weird one really.