Everybody can have his own idea about Bolt.
For me is clean, because I was in Kingston when, in 2002, he won World Juniores in 200m running 20"58 when was not still sixteen.
At that time, he was 1,96 tall and 75 kg heavy. Now, he is still 1.96 but his weight is 88 kg.
When I saw him, immediately I said "this guy goes to be the WR holder of 200m and 400m", opinion which became still stronger in my mind after he ran, in 2003, 400m in 45"35 when not still seventeen.
The fact to put 13 kg of muscles on a tall body in 7-8 years from your weight when you are 15 is something normal, of course depending on the type of training you do.
And not forget that, when he was 16 without muscles, was able in any case to run in 10"09, with very bad start.
What I can't totally agree is that, in all these types of speculations, NEVER I READ SOMETHING ABOUT DIFFERENT LEVEL OF TRAINING.
When you wright "2008 - Doping" because he suddenly improved a lot, you have instead to write "2008 - Training", because people well knowing Usain know he till 2007 "joked" in training, and all his results were due only to his incredible talent.
At that time, I was the coach of Shaheen, WR holder of steeple, and Shaheen had the same manager of Bolt : Ricky Simms. So, several times we spoke about Usain, and always Ricky told me "the boy has the training of a student, may be 4 times per week, no volume, everything easy".
The big change was when Usain met Glenn Mills, deciding to follow him.
This type of analysis, which many times we can read in Letsrun, ALWAYS HAS THIS WRONG POINT : PEOPLE NEVER SPEAK ABOUT TRAINING, like everything can change in the life of an athlete, except his training.
This happens when you speak about long distances, not knowing there are athletes running already fast ALMOST WITHOUT TRAINING, who of course if, and when, find the opportunity of REAL TRAINING can improve quickly to top level. This happens when you speak about Bolt.
For example, I found at the beginning of March in Iten a young athlete who was introduced to me by a group of Polish runners, staying in the High Altitude Training Camp of Lornah Kiplagat. They collected some money among them and organised a race of 3000m, one Saturday, on the dirty track of Kamarin (where every American or European athlete refuse to run because holes and small stones). This boy lapped all the other runners one lap before the finish, did a mistake stopping running, was pushed on the track again for the last lap, and finished in 8'16".
When I spoke with him, I discover he was 17 (born in 1996), was in training from 6 months without any coach and any program, joining casually other athletes, and of course didn't have any type of assistance.
I followed him directly for one a half month, when I left Kenya I gave his program to a collaborator of mine, and in June he was 2nd in Kenyan Youth Trials in 1500m in 3'39"7, winning bronze medal in World Youth Championships in Donyetsk some day ago at the 3rd race of his life. His name is Titus Kipyego Kipruto.
Nobody knowing the reality can be surprised if this guy, next year, runs 3'32" or 7'38" in 3000m or, may be, tries steeple in 8'05". Instead, if this happens, ALL PEOPLE NOT KNOWING THE SPECIFIC SITUATION IMMEDIATELY LOOK AT DOPING.
I don't say doping can't help athletes, especially where they have to use muscle stength at high level.
What I say is that everybody has to understand there are athletes with more talent, in every sport and every event, and these athletes are far from every statistic analysis.
If I put Bolt near Montgomery, and I ask somebody not knowing athletics who can be the best sprinter between the two guys, everybody answers Bolt, and in my opinion is exactly the fact Montgomery WITH doping was able running 9.78 that makes me thinking of a CLEAN BOLT, because in my opinion the difference between them, based on their natural talent, must be of 4-5/10.
Why have I to suppose Valerie Adams, for example, is on PED's, when everytime I meet her in some meeting I see a women so much different from the most part of other throwers (taller, more muscles, less fat) ? The surprise is if Ostapchuk can beat her, and in fact Ostapchuk was doped, not Adams.
Remember always : every performance, at any level, depends on these factors :
1) Personal talent (something natural, gift from God, mom and baba)
2) Quality of training (depending on personal motivation and on the ability of the coach)
3) Quality of strategies (good manager against bad manager)
4) Professionalism in the own life (including how eating, how resting, how recovering, how focusing)
5) Mental and psychological attitude
6) Sel confidence
7) If you want to consider this factor, doping (but only giving little advantage, depending on the event, and in any case NEVER being able to replace any other factor).