Teg Debut time

If they are the same height, Teg easily has 15 lbs. on Culpepper. If he's really about 6'1, I would put him over 150lbs. based off seeing him in person.

I'm interested to see how Teg will do. I feel he's moving to the marathon not because he wants to, but he because he knows he's near the end of his career and wants to finish up making some money. He's probably making a pretty nice appearance fee at Chicago.

I feel like he will hang just under 5:00 pace but fall apart towards the end and finish in 2:12-2:13ish. Successful marathoners are made when they truly want the distance, not view it as a last resort.

rojo...come on now...Simon Bairu ringing any bells?? And we can see how well he did under Jerry's marathon coaching. And you're dead wrong about the coach/athlete relationship. It's funny, because one of the reasons you started this site was to preach about how JK took you two no names to being pretty decent...do you think you made JK or do you think he made you??

Yeah, the xc thing isn't comparable so we can agree there. And, while JK's charts have been semi-reliable in the past, there is magic formula to predict how someone does in the marathon. There are too many unpredictable variables. I'm assuming Teg has practiced fuel intake during hard efforts, given his recent road racing. However, he's in a group that emphasizes a lot (A LOT) of hard running, and that's simply not conducive to fast marathoning. Look at Canova's training, look at Salazar's training for Ritz, and compare them to Jerry. Jerry wants his guys running hard almost every day of the week. You can't do the long marathon training like that, especially on roads, without burnout or injury.

All this said, I say he doesn't break 2:15 and then gets hurt directly after.

As they say , he's a little long in tooth , meaning Teg's starting the marathon game a little late as it is with most american distance elites. He will run well but not to his potential.

Note to young elites , think Alberto , think africans , don't be afraid to start young if you feel you want to maximize your marathon potential.

After going out with the second pack, DNF at 15-18 miles.

2:09:59

I believe!

I think he had Bairu, Nelson and Vaughn as well as the women. No big success yet but it may take time. Salazar finally got a 2:07 high from Ritz.

2:14:33

USATF has both Teg and Culpepper as the same height and 145 and 130 respectively.

2:14 or worse.

Reasons:

1. First and foremost, Teg is NOT a marathoner. He is a tall, muscled (for a runner) FAST athlete. He is best from 3000m to 5000m. His last couple years of 10k running were done solely because he had aged out of the 5k.

2. He seems to be aging rapidly. We can't all be ageless wonders like Lagat. It is well known that gingers age especially horribly, and Teg seems to be experiencing that. Wasn't he running sub-13 just a few years ago? What the hell happened so quickly?

3. His motivation seems low. As noted by a previous poster above, he isn't doing this because he cares about the marathon. It's a twilight-of-the-career payday. When Hall and Ritz were first moving to the marathon on 2005-06, Teg was bummed because he wanted them to stay on the track with him. He nobly carried the USA through some great years without much company.

4. Schumacher's athletes have been marathon disappointments. Bairu, Nelson, Vaughn-- all great talents, low 27 10kers, all stinky in marathon. All would get crushed by long-forgotten '80's Americans with modest track credentials. I see nothing to indicate Teg will be different.

No

Simon Bairu

Tim Nelson

Both complete flops

Yes

Agreed

Marathoners are usually good XC runners

Shorter

Rodgers

Salazar

Tergat

Geb

Kastor

Radcliffe

Goucher

Flanagan

Meb

Hall

Ritz

G. Mutai

It is also a 10k

I.e., longer than the 3k-5k distance I mentioned above of which he has run quite well

See above

That he never challenged for the win in the NCAA xc championships

No

See above

No

See above

See above

Marathoners are usually good XC runners

Shorter

Rodgers

Salazar

Tergat

Geb/

Geb was relatively poor over xc and set a marathon WR

Tim Nelson was 2nd in US xc so surely he should have run a good marathon time off your thinking.

Teg's 20K time of 58:30 converts to a 2:10:13 using mcmillian's calculator, and his 25K time of 1:14:43 converts to a 2:10:54 using mcmillian's calculator.

I'd give Teg a 2:11 on his debut, but as other posters said I am afraid that he'll go out too fast and blow up or DNF.

He is definitely a shorter distance runner; having run 3:34, the AR at 2 miles, and sub 13. His 10000m success was not nearly as good as his 5000m success going by both his times and him being in contention for both national and Olympic/World titles in those distances.

I don't think he is suited for the marathon but if he wants to do it I think he should have done a lower key marathon or have someone from his training group pace him in Chicago going through halfway in 1:05, because otherwise he probably would go out with the leaders and blow up.

ukathleticscoach wrote:

Geb was relatively poor over xc

Wrong

He is a medalist in the world XC championships.

3 seconds from 1st place

Ahead of both Paul Tergat and Khalid Skah

ukathleticscoach wrote:

Tim Nelson was 2nd in US xc so surely he should have run a good marathon time off your thinking.

2nd place against mickey mouse competition means nothing

But continue grasping at straws to disprove a trend

ukathleticscoach wrote:

Marathoners are usually good XC runners

Shorter

Rodgers

Salazar

Tergat

Geb/

Geb was relatively poor over xc and set a marathon WR

Tim Nelson was 2nd in US xc so surely he should have run a good marathon time off your thinking.

Geb got bronze at World XC...I wouldn't define that as relatively poor. If you can get bronze at World XC then you are pretty good

One or the other:

2:12:07

or

DNF

There seems to be a tone to his moving to the marathon. He is not hitting it in his prime, which would be more likely to produce results on par with his 5k-10k. He seems to be moving because he can't be as competitive on the track. It strikes me a little more like Todd Williams and Bob Kennedy. Similar track times. They moved to the marathon late in their careers. Kennedy DNF. Williams 2:11:17. So I will go with somewhere between 2:11-2:12 on a good day to DNF on a bad day.

2:14:01

First time out, struggles in the second half, especially if it is hot. I'd be very impressed if he goes under 2:12.

2:09:41.

Goes out in 1:03:43 and falls off a bit, but still manages to break 2:10

the small of tanakas back wrote:

It is well known that gingers age especially horribly

Even without this, your post is dismally ignorant. With it, you more or less appear to have a neurological disorder. You may want to stop following running and become a fan of NASCAR or curling or something.