rupp wont even finish 6th.
rupp wont even finish 6th.
Emil C wrote:
True is overrated as hell. Fanboys from Maine keep hyping him on the boards, I doubt he'll even finish as high as 4th.
RUNNER 10K PB (5K PB)
--------------------------
RUPP 26:48 (12:58)
RITZ 27:22 (12:56)
DERRICK 27:31 (13:09)
TRUE 27:41 (13:14)
If you're referring to people who expect True to break 13 any day now I agree with the overrated comment. However, in terms of the 10,000 at USAs, True isn't overrated. He's had a really couple of years and could be a strong 4th if not top 3. They're all A-standard runners (w/Ritz's PR's a bit outdated) and after Rupp's easy victory any two of the others wouldn't surprise me.
*True's had a really good couple of years.
LennyZ wrote:
If they go out in an aggressive 13 low pace, I think that Ritz and Derrick will have the upper hand as the race nears the end, and True will be left off. However, I think that it is likely that this will be more tactical (unless Rupp decides to make it hard from the gun) and start off at 13:30 pace. In this case, I think that True has a much stronger kick that Ritz and the team will be Rupp/Derrick/True. It should be a good one.
If Salazar/Rupp agree with your interpretation, then it's a no brainer. Rupp workhorses, and drags the race fast enough to give his teammate ritz what he needs.
If so, we'll see it, and see it early. Because nobody but rupp/ritz have an interest in a fast grinding pace.
What does it say if we don't see that? Either rupp leading a slow open, or rupp not leading at all?
I see the race going slowly, unless Teg or Braun set the pace. If it's slow, Ritz has the worst kick out of the other three guys. He'll have to close at least as fast as he did at Oxy.
pert wrote:
Derrick and True just need to set on Ritz for 9800 meters
and coast by him at the end. Its that simple.
easier said then done
J.R. wrote:
Daryl Basarab wrote:It's honestly close enough that you cannot say anyone is safe.
Yes, this includes Rupp.
I agree with this.
seriously? once it's game time, rupp is in a different league than the others. Just look at last year's olympic trials and olympics.
I don't think Ritz would be devastated by not making the team.
He'll just get into marathon mode.
Rupp is the one with the most to lose and would actually be devastated if he misses it, especially if he also misses the 5000 team.
asdfasdf wrote:
I see the race going slowly, unless Teg or Braun set the pace. If it's slow, Ritz has the worst kick out of the other three guys. He'll have to close at least as fast as he did at Oxy.
I think Ritz and Salazar have probably figured out that Ritz isn't going to benefit from a slow pace. Why wouldn't he keep it honest to neutralize the others' speed? He's a strong guy. If I were Ritz I'd ask Rupp for some pacing help early, and keep it hard all the way.
Its a championship race. It'll go out slow. No way it goes out fast.
And no way rupp takes the lead at any point during the first half of the race. Teammate or not, I just don't see rupp killing himself when he doesn't have to.
I would not expect anything special or unusual is going to happen in this race. Rupp will work with Ritz as they are team mates afterall. It is going to be warm on race day but I would not expect a fast first 5000m anyways. Look for something around 13:50 to 14:00 for the first half of the race.
Ritz with Rupps help will start cranking down the pace sometime in the second half, prob with about 3000m-4000m to go. Derrick will sit on Ritz for the whole race staying close. True will sit on Rupp, Ritz and Derrick.
As the pace increases Derrick and True will hang on. When it gets down to the last 800m Rupp, Ritz and Derrick will separate slightly from True or True will have used up all his energy to be there at the bell.
On the last lap Rupp goes away easily for the win. Ritz hammers but Derrick will pass him in the last 200 meters. Ritz will finish fast enough to hold off True.
Rupp
Derrick
Ritz
Puskedra will be helping out with the early pace.
Buffalo Orange wrote:
asdfasdf wrote:I see the race going slowly, unless Teg or Braun set the pace. If it's slow, Ritz has the worst kick out of the other three guys. He'll have to close at least as fast as he did at Oxy.
I think Ritz and Salazar have probably figured out that Ritz isn't going to benefit from a slow pace. Why wouldn't he keep it honest to neutralize the others' speed? He's a strong guy. If I were Ritz I'd ask Rupp for some pacing help early, and keep it hard all the way.
* wrote:
I don't think Ritz would be devastated by not making the team.
He'll just get into marathon mode.
Rupp is the one with the most to lose and would actually be devastated if he misses it, especially if he also misses the 5000 team.
Sure, but what are the chances a 26:48 guy who has closed several 53 laps in championship races gets outkicked by some 13:0x runners/27 low guys not known for kicking.
Unless things went absurdly wrong Rupp makes the 10000 team without a thought.
5000 will take some work, but I do believe he will make both times. Salazar guys have a history of being peaked and good at the right times.
Emil C wrote:
True is overrated as hell. Fanboys from Maine keep hyping him on the boards, I doubt he'll even finish as high as 4th.
THIS, 100%. Ben True is overrated, especially in his chances at the 10000. So what, he had a good showing in World XC on a ridiculous course that is very different from running track? On an easier flatter course at USAs, he only managed 5th against a weaker field than USA 10000. Rupp will win, Ritz and Derrick will be close together for 2nd and 3rd, and at least one other person (Braun, Vail, Puskedra, Curtis?) will finish ahead of True. True won't make the 10 over Rupp, Ritz, or Derrick, and he won't make the 5 over Rupp, Lagat, or Lomong.
I'd like to see True make it because he had the balls to run (and do well)at World XC. I'd have to put Derrick on the bubble.
I wouldn't expect Rupp to lead more than 6 laps of the race prior to the last mile. Look for Puskedra to earn his keep by taking the race out in just under 14 minutes.
LennyZ wrote:
It certainly should be close. First off, I think that Rupp will make it. For the other 3, I think it depends on how the race plays out. If they go out in an aggressive 13 low pace, I think that Ritz and Derrick will have the upper hand as the race nears the end, and True will be left off. However, I think that it is likely that this will be more tactical (unless Rupp decides to make it hard from the gun) and start off at 13:30 pace.. In this case, I think that True has a much stronger kick that Ritz and the team will be Rupp/Derrick/True. It should be a good one.
For EVERYONE IN THE WORLD with maybe the exception of Rupp, Farah, and a few others, 13 low is suicide pace in a 10000. As for 13:30 pace, Ritz, Derrick and True will have a hard time even hanging on.
Given how these guys are considered top dogs and not Tegenkamp, expect them to be throwing surges to drop one another. I could also see Rupp leading it out close to 13:50-13:55 pace in attempt to drag Puskedra along to the A standard like he did with Ritzenhein last year
LM wrote:
Sure, but what are the chances a 26:48 guy who has closed several 53 laps in championship races gets outkicked by some 13:0x runners/27 low guys not known for kicking.
Well, things can happen in 25 laps.
Let's say his stomach is bothering that day or he has a cold.
Or a blister flares up. He gets tripped.
It doesn't take things to go very wrong to throw you off in a race that long.
If he feels Ok , there should be no concern.
Why did K Bekele DNF at WC's 3 weeks before running 26:43?
The answer is none. Ritz will get 4th but with the marathon to focus on he may be better off, and certainly won't be that upset.
His kick is improving though, and could be dangerous - I find it amusing people seem to ignore that True has raced sparingly and jogged a 3:40 so his kick is only behind Rupp in this race.
You obviously did not watch the 2012 trials. But to be fair I said the same thing you did before the race. I was wrong.