TrackCoach--
Dont' sell yourself short.
Bolt got lucky with his angles here. It was the perfect start--however, it could have been "more perfect", if he was in shape, so you are correct in that his lack of fitness showed itself early.
If he was in shape and had gotten that start, he would have been 2m ahead at the 10m mark. It was perfect, but it could be faster.
And the last part of the race is conditioned on the first part of the race, and the middle part of the race--late acceleration and transition--set up that last part of the race. IMHO it was BECAUSE his lack of fitness negatively affected the first half of his race, that the second half of his race sucked.
So, the question is what happens at nationals? Does he even have to run it?
Even though Bolt is currently the best of the Jamaican 100m crop at 9.95, Carter is close on his heels.
My prediction is that he will win. Blake has overdosed. Powell is finished. Frater, Ashmeade, Harvey, KBC, etc. are all going to be fighting behind Carter for 3rd, I think. Carter might just get lucky and beat Bolt, because he will likely put pressure on Bolt early. Plus, Carter is probably home training right now, and Bolt is hamming it up in Rome--although he might make a detour through Munich on the way home. It's a very quick flight, I have done it myself.