London Pacing - 61:45 half, 2:03:30 till 20 miles

Here the official pacers!!!

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dbender wrote:

What pacemaker is going to run those times?

Well, they've got Mo Farah through 21k. He's pretty fast.[/quote]

dbender wrote:

Is Mo Farah pacing?

I doubt they'd officially call him a pacer.

However, he's getting paid to run half the race before dropping out. He'll want to be at or near the front of the race getting some camera time. It would look pretty foolish if he just took off and dropped the actual racers so there's not much else to do but run at the target pace and drag the rest along. That's pretty much what a pacer does, no?

dbender wrote:Yes, and that's pacing to 30K. 20Miles a bit further

2"03'30 pace for 20 miles is 1"34'12

27'00 - 27'10 concurrent ability on a flat road course,

1"34'12 with

27'00 ->1"00'02 , 2"05'43

27'05 ->1"00'05 , 2"05'38

27'10 ->1"00'09 , 2"05'33

Factor in the added physiological and psychological burden of leading the whole way, and the odds for the pacer lengthen

this is denis we are talking about

the same denis who ran 2"04 in berlin easing off to allow his esteemed elder, geoffey to keep up

( got R sided abdo strain at 10k out, which was obvious from tv as he started rubbing his side & looked concerned )

dennis couda gone 2"03 if he'd wanted to that day but showed ultimate respect to geoffey by not pushing it from 10k out

this dennis coud jog 20 miles solo in london in 1"34'12 if he wanted

A fast crew...

Edwin Kipyego: 61:11

Philip Langat: 59:52

Mike Kigen: 59:58

Dennis Kimetto: 59:14, 2:04:16

Wilfred Kirwa Kigen: 61:57

Kapcherop wrote:I think we will see the Mutai of 2011 or better. Talk of the guy who won NY in 2:05:06 by almost 90 seconds! I have great respect for Kipsang and indeed will win if Mutai is not back to his 2011 shape. But my instinct tells me Mutai is upto something. Remember he ran 58 half in Dubai in February. That was more than 30 seconds faster than his previous PR. Considering that his training has been focused on London marathon, I can only see him a 2011 Mutai

that dubai 1/2M wouda been close to 50/50 to break zedster's "legendary" 58'23wr if they had bothered to go out quicker in 1st 5 - 10k

if geoffey was in arguable 1/2M wr shape training for the M & not 1/2M specifically, then he coud really destroy the wr & launch it into a dimension where it may not ever come back from

i can see him going 1"01'45/1"01'00 especially if dennis inexorably, gradually quickens to 30k to drop geoffey's pretenders

When you have training partners pacing you in the person of Denis Kimetto (2:04:16 & 25K WR holder) and Wilfred Kirwa (#2 25K All Time) I can see a WR this time.

Also don't count out Stanley Biwott. May be a good bet.

Half marathon WR is no joke. It requires specific training and focus. If they want Mutai to try it, they should organize a special race around June/July or Dec/Jan. That would give him about two months to just focus on half and sharpen his speed. I remember in June 2011, he was recovered from that 2:03 race in Boston to run his 10k PB of 27:19.

Kapcherop wrote:Half marathon WR is no joke. It requires specific training and focus

it was long enough to go that he trained more specifically for it, but him & that kid wouda been right there at 58'23 if not for slow start ( i'll try to dig up my analysis posted for it )

I remember in June 2011, he was recovered from that 2:03 race in Boston to run his 10k PB of 27:19.

that was probably more a training run effort

his 27'29 in nairobi was worth more like 26'40+ at sea-level & that was a championship race !

Yes, he's a fantastic athlete and sure looked like he could have passed G Mutai. He was paced to that 2:04 though. There were at least 4 pacers in Berlin, 5 if you count Mutai that made that 2:04 possible. He tucked in their slipstream and was able to relax. He's not going to be able to do that in London. One of the other 2:03 pacers has a 1/2 marathon PR slower than requested 1:01:45 split. It's going to get lonely up front.

ventolin^3 wrote:

this is denis we are talking about

the same denis who ran 2"04 in berlin easing off to allow his esteemed elder, geoffey to keep up

( got R sided abdo strain at 10k out, which was obvious from tv as he started rubbing his side & looked concerned )

dennis couda gone 2"03 if he'd wanted to that day but showed ultimate respect to geoffey by not pushing it from 10k out

this dennis coud jog 20 miles solo in london in 1"34'12 if he wanted

You are right Evans! Maybe the organizers know something they are not revealing yet. This race looks like a set up for Geoffrey Mutai to seriously attempt the WR. Three of the pacers belong to his group and the presence of Kimetto, who seems capable of a WR himself, leaves no doubt what Mutai's intentions are. You are also right about Stanley Biwott. He is a dark horse in this race and anything is possible with him. If there will still be a group after the last pacemaker drops out, and they cooperate with each other, we should see history made in London.

Richard Evans wrote:

When you have training partners pacing you in the person of Denis Kimetto (2:04:16 & 25K WR holder) and Wilfred Kirwa (#2 25K All Time) I can see a WR this time.

Also don't count out Stanley Biwott. May be a good bet.

Im not sure that pacers can finish race in WMM these days. Maybe they can but they will not get money for the prize.

crazy raisin wrote:

It could actually happen. Temperatures in the high 40s, cloudy, not too much wind. If the weather isn't perfect at London I'd say no chance of a WR - Rotterdam and Berlin are measurably faster courses - but with a deep field and perfect weather it could happen.

Pretty sure they're not "measurably" faster. Please, how?

Kapcherop wrote:

@notaballer, you are right D. Kimetto is one of the best marathoners in the world. As Mutai's training partner or part of his training group and a protege of his, I believe Mutai asked him if he could help them in London. And out of the great respect he has for him, Kimetto agreed to do it. Furthermore Mutai knows he has fully recovered from Tokyo and can do a fantastic job.

Kapcherop, do you think that Kimetto will be willing to again pace and allow Mutai to finish ahead of him?

Or will he stay on show himself to be the superior?

Angel wrote:

Im not sure that pacers can finish race in WMM these days. Maybe they can but they will not get money for the prize.

This would be a violation of long established rules for pacers, which say they have to be official entrants eligible to win/place in the race.

rupp-certified saladbar wrote:

Kapcherop, do you think that Kimetto will be willing to again pace and allow Mutai to finish ahead of him?

Or will he stay on show himself to be the superior?

This time it is official, Dennis will pace good and so will do Wilfred Kirwa. Also note that Kimetto is like Mutai's brother. Would have be good to put Frankline Chepkwony in the mix too. Great training group anyway, great guys!

pacers can finish look up paul pilkington,sammy korir was the pacer for paul tergat,when he and tergat ran sub 2:05, olympic champ stephen kiprotich won his first marathon when he was supposed to be a pacer, it does not happen often ,but it happens.

i dont see a problem if kimetto can pace them to a 61:45 for halfway and continue to the 20 mile mark at contracted pace, he has done his job, if he feels good and wants to continue great it adds intrigue to the race

ventolin^3 wrote:

his 27'29 in nairobi was worth more like 26'40+ at sea-level & that was a championship race !

Not for a kenyan runner! Had that been an athlete from the low lands in the western part of the world I would have agreed, but no way that run was worth 26.40

As we all look forward eagerly for a WR in London, one man is not happy at all with this prospect, and that is the reigning WR holder Patrick Makau. I am pretty sure he is not capable of beating his record, at least for now. Do you guys think he will just sit and watch his record go? I for one do not think so. He could mess this thing up with crazy surges. I hope Mutai, Kipsang and the crew have made plans for this. The best thing would be for them to maintain a steady pace and as long as they are on requested pace, they should not panic about anyone surging especially before 33km. After that, they can follow any surge cautiously. I have alot of respect for Patrick Makau and know that he is very talented(and holds the WR legitimately) but he has expressed displeasure every time someone said they were targeting the WR. A WR in Kenya especially in the marathon commands alot of respect and obviously Makau does not want to lose that respect. I hope he will just chill in the race and hope to run away in the end and break his own record.

An interesting thought. Definitely not impossible to imagine.