Flanagans chances in Boston

The talk of Shalane's creds, her bronzes and all that at the world level are precisely why I don't think she'll win. She's a great national level runner, with respectable times, but in world class competition she has yet to seal the deal. I have no doubt she is competitive and wants to go out and win when she's in a situation where she knows she's tops, but I've also seen her race where she was content to coast. I've seen her against world class competitors and I see in her eyes at a certain point a desire to just be done, to settle for top 3 or top 5 or what have you. Others have made mention of her 10ks, which I think are legit points. A 10k runner does not a marathoner make. You're talking about more than four times the distance. And I don't think a win is in her at the marathon level, not when her best times are so far off the world bests. As others have pointed out, if we were dealing with a 2:10 marathoner, no one in their right mind would say that person has a chance, given he'd be with runners who can reliably go five minutes faster on a good day. Same with the women. Last I checked, Flanagan's best time is a good 4 to 5 minutes away from the best runners. She can have a great day, and it still won't be a enough. I think she has a top three in her, and she'll have to be content. I predict for Boston 4th or DNF.

I would say anyone who is capable of running 2:25 has a shot and perhaps Shalane is in better shape and more experienced than when she ran 2:25, but there is no way a person can be expected to beat athletes who have who have a 5 second better PR.

Based on Shalane's half marathon, her recent 10K and how her training has been going, she has the right attitude in thinking she can win it, but if all of the elites make it to the line and it's an honest race, finishing top-5 would be a good performance and finishing top-3 would be a great performance, but winning is a long shot. I will not say winning is going to take a miricle, but there are a lot of things that will have to go Shalane's way starting with having the race of her life and one or two of the other athletes having a bad day...this can happen.

Keep in mind that the major marathons have become so big that it is equal to if not more difficult than winning an Olympic gold medal. When you have agents, coaches and athletes building their annual salaries around 2 races, the MMs are a do-or-die situation.

superawesomness wrote:

Boston was won by the men last year in 2:12

Yes there was heat, but don't discount anyone in a marathon.

I think her 10k prowess has translated extremely well. 2nd in New York, won marathon trials in 2:25. Ran gutsy in the Olympics to pay for it late and still get a 2:25 and 10th place.

Really? Are you honestly going to cite that 2:12 and more or less write off the heat? If it is 80+ degrees on Monday I will bet money that Shalane does not break 2:30. Anyways this is unlikely, as the weather forecast for Monday looks pretty good.

How can you say she is anywhere near as good a marathoner as a 10k runner? The top women are running right around 30:00 and Shalane has a PR of 30:22, 3.5 seconds per mile slower. Her marathon PR of 2:25 is a solid 11-13 seconds per mile back from 2:19-2:20 pace. Shalane's only chance is if the race is a jogfest and essentially boils down to a track race because that's what she is, a track runner. Not a marathoner.

i dont think anyone has mentioned the weather yet. current forecast is high 56, low 43 with a slight headwind. although on sunday there is a solid tailwind so theres potential for change

cenotaph wrote:

i dont think anyone has mentioned the weather yet. current forecast is high 56, low 43 with a slight headwind. although on sunday there is a solid tailwind so theres potential for change

I was just talking to my buddy, who is running it, and he mentioned that they had predicted a tailwind for the time of race a couple days ago, so the wind is definitely trending in the wrong direction, FWIW.

might be wejo wrote:

Shalane's only chance is if the race is a jogfest and essentially boils down to a track race because that's what she is, a track runner.

Over the past five years of the women's race, the average winning time is 2:27:40 with a average 2 second margin of victory over second place. The recent history of the women's race has mostly been what you describe.

No chance for Shalane winning Boston. Chance of me flashing her my junk and her tripping on the course, 100 percent

I'm going with Kara Goucher for the win. She continues to improve, runs smart, and is always tough out there.

you are smoking mad drugs if you think kara can touch shalane.

oatmeal + water wrote:

you are smoking mad drugs if you think kara can touch shalane.

similar to my thoughts. it'll be tough for kara to beat shalane and shalane will have a hard time winning. its not impossible for kara to win but im thinking her chances are

Raptured wrote:

I was just talking to my buddy, who is running it, and he mentioned that they had predicted a tailwind for the time of race a couple days ago, so the wind is definitely trending in the wrong direction, FWIW.

Do you have the results?

I predict she will be the first caucasian woman to cross the finish line.

I would date all of them

Doubter of things wrote:

Yep. Also consider Boston is downhill while the track was mostly flat. I wouldn't be surprised if she ran sub2:20.

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What percentage of your track is flat?

I think it's going to be very difficult for an American to win a World Marathon Major, even Shalane.

1. The talent pool on the world stage is so deep that even when one of the top Americans races, they are one of 8-10 runners with a shot, giving them a low percentage shot of winning to start with.

2. Within that 8-10, there are usually at least a few other athletes with better credentials, lowering the Americans' chances further.

3. Americans with a shot to win are usually built up as contenders in the American media, and therefore try to race with an Alpha Dog mentality (see Ryan Hall taking it out hard in Boston, etc, vs the races earlier in his career when he laid back a bit more...it's not a huge difference, but every bit counts at that level). In these races, it takes a supremely fit (and usually superior to the other athletes) runner to win running that way, and no Americans seem to be at that level.

When Meb won NY, it was the perfect storm. He was unheralded for that particular race, was able to run the race in a way that saw the other contenders destroy each other so they were toast when Meb finally went to the lead. He was extremely fit, had a great day, and nobody else did.

With all that said, I think Shalane has about as good a shot as we're going to see an American have in the next handful of years. I would be mildly surprised, but not shocked.

10 percent. That is a good chance in this day and age.

I think Flanagan has a good chance with London so close and the bigger Marathon so likely dragging the very best Marathoners. Saying that I'm sure there will be plenty of "2nd rate Kenyans" who can keep it on or near 2:20 along with the defending champion, but I certainly think Flanagan can do that time and it would be great given the bit of revival of distance racing (at the same time the USA no longer dominate the sprints) for an American and local girl to win it however and it does seem London was a big learning experience for Shalane so it will be interesting to see.

Confused Brit - why is the Boston marathon on a Monday - is it a national holiday or something? Thanx!

ecin wrote:

Anyone care to give their opinion on her chances come Monday? The media is really taking off with the idea that she has a great chance at being the next American champion.

The thing that strikes me as the most odd is that she too seems to be playing it up. Which, of course, could make for an epic fail if she stuggles. Typically people just say they are running to win but don't go too far down that road.

She seems to have had some great times in the last few months (half and 10k).

Her London performance was a disappointment, but are her chances come Monday as good as the media is trying to get me to believe?

It is called marketing, it happens every year.

If a Mulligan is a Mulligan, what's a Flanagan?