CAM LEVINS vs CHRIS DERRICK - who wins at world XC?

One more time, replace "are not there" with "is there"

Interesting.

Bear in mind Derrick's 13:12 (indoors) is probably worth ~13:05 and Levins was surely not far off that shape last year plus his 8:14i 2-mile converts to approx 13:12i I think.

Based on this maybe Derrick or Levins are even in with an outside chance of a medal?

Trouble is your list does not include any of the Kenyan athletes.

Top 8 for either guy would be a stellar performance.

"Levins CAN". Indeed!

Cougars are elusive and like stalking their pray. They need a large territory. Mom teaches young cougar to stay away from humans and then kicks youth out. Must establish new territory - typical running into development in the process. Often cougar attacks are from weak old cougars who lost their territory and are running into developed areas or are young and not yet able to establish a territory...or worse was orphaned and was not taught to stay away from home humans. A few walk right into town in Victoria (pop 365,000) in the spring....calls to conservation skyrocket at this time.

I'd rather (and have) run into bears.

Cam is quoted here, seems confident:

http://can.milesplit.com/articles/102585-team-canada-ready-for-iaaf-world-cross-country-championships

.

Ahmed might be closer than some people think.

henrybish wrote:

Based on this maybe Derrick or Levins are even in with an outside chance of a medal?

Top 8 for either guy would be a stellar performance.

"Levins CAN". Indeed!

Oh, yes.

As I mentioned above, Levins has the ability and mental courage to get in the pack and absorb surges. He showed this in London, but just didn't have the reserve to move with the leaders over the last 800. And apparently he was a bit sick leading into the race. And Mo Farah, Galen Rupp and Tariku Bekele are not in this race.

Following that performance under the the biggest of spotlights (in his first international track championship, let only first Olympics), I would look for Levins to get right in the mix once again. The east Africans will not get out as fast as usual given the sub-freezing temps, so it won't be suicidal at all for a guy like Levins (or Derrick) to stick himself in there. And if he's there at that last hill, I would say anything can happen.

In short, I wouldn't count him out of top-10 or even a medal. Hell, I wouldn't count him out of the win. You heard it here first. I'd bet "the field" over any one winner in this on, but think that Levins has as much of a shot as anyone else in there (Merga being the only major exception).

Trouble is your list does not include any of the Kenyan athletes.

"Levins CAN". Indeed!

The problem is not my list. The problem is that Kenya did not bring any of their 22 runners that ran faster than Levins in the last 12 months. The fastest runner on their team this year is Japhet Kipyegon Korir who ran 13:20.8 last year (slower than Ben True). The number 2 guy on their team is Timothy Kosgei Kiptoo who ran 13:24.6. The number 3 guy, Ndiku, ran 13:33.5 last year (slower than Andy Bayer).

I don't see Kenya in the top 3 teams. They are deep, but they can't bring their D or E team and expect to win.

Guess what , Levins will not finish in top 15.

Kenya should win , very good crew this year.

Results Please wrote:

Kenya should win , very good crew this year.

How is this a good crew for Kenya. They did not bring any of their top 25 guys...

I would be surprised to see a Kenyan in the top 10.

No way their team beats Ethiopia. At least ETH brought Merga...

The field is so weak this year that both Derrick and Levins can get right to the front (top 10) and take a better line immediately. A lot of extra distance will be run by the mid packers because of all these twists and turns...

Ethiopia will win and Cam will be top ten. Derrick will around 15th to 20th place.

Why would Derrick be as low as 15th or 20th? Who are all these mystery runners that will beat him? Expect Ben True to be between 15th and 20th... Not Derrick.Look at the entry list.

Canova>God wrote:

Ethiopia will win and Cam will be top ten. Derrick will around 15th to 20th place.

Is Ben True bringing his skis or what?GG

Ejnedcjkncedckjn wrote:Why would Derrick be as low as 15th or 20th? Who are all these mystery runners that will beat him? Expect Ben True to be between 15th and 20th... Not Derrick.

[/quote]

Yeah I kind just made up those numbers and then checked the list to see how high Cam could place. Derrick should be top 15 after looking at the entries. He could be top 10 with a really good day. And about the mystery runners I bet there will be some especially on a course like this. These bad conditions could lead to some upsets. Just because someone can run a fast 5k in a summer track meet does not mean that they will have a good race on the slopes of Poland.

ggilder wrote:

Is Ben True bringing his skis or what?

uote]

Ok, let's continue on the ranking

11 - Ben True US 13:20.53

12- Japhet Kipyegon Korir KEN 13:20.88

13 - Aboud ALG 13:20.99

14 - Sanchez Spain 13:21.12

15 - Gala DJI 13:21.21

16 - Kiplimo UGA 13:21.57

17 - Kifle ERI 13:22.92

18 - Vernon GBR 13:23.20

19 - Mzazi South Africa 13:24.5

20 - Timothy Kosgei Kiptoo KEN 13:24.67

...so yes, Ben True has a very good chance for top 20 (and even has an outside chance for top 10)

Why are you using 5k times to predict a 12k race?

I don't think levins will finish anywhere near derrick. Based off derrick's running style, foot-strike, he'll do very well in the rough conditions. He is going to surprise everyone.

Utah Spy wrote:

I have this outside feeling that Leavins might really blow one out here. I'm saying "top 8"

He's been consistent and very high mileage (averaging 150 - 200). Yet he ran a good 2 mile indoor race :

1 Bernard Lagat Nike 8:09.49

2 Andrew Bumbalough Nike 8:13.02

3 Cam Levins Nike 8:14.69

4 Evan Jager Nike 8:14.95

It was his only indoor race and was running it through high mileage. A little taper and sharpening might make him very strong this weekend.

Here are my gut thoughts (I'll admit I haven't watched any of the Driven stuff as I dont want to spend $20 a month).

I think Derrick will finish well ahead for the following two reasons.

1) Derrick has historically been better than Levins.

Yes, Levins was on top of Derrick last spring, but he's never been close to him besides that. Head to head it's 4 to 2 for Derrick according to tilastapaja (See bottom for stats). Derrick beat him last year at NCAA xc. Derrick is 4 times a top 7 guy at NCAA XC. Derrick grew up in Illinios. The cold won't phase him and Derrick seems to be the type of guy who would be good in slop as he told me in New York after the 5000 he's great at grinding races out. Also, didn't he win NXN in high school in the snow?

2) Derrick's recent form seems to be better than Levins.

Levins lost to Craig Forys in January at NACAC. He lost to Bumbalough in February at Millrose. Derrick killed both of those guys this year.

Chris Derrick USA Cam Levins CAN

5000 m NCAA Des Moines IA 2011-06-11 13:36.17 (4) 13:40.30 (7)

Cross Country 10.0 km NCAA Terre Haute IN 2011-11-21 28:57.5h (2) 29:04.8h (4)

5000 m NCAA Nampa ID 2012-03-09 13:26.88 (2) 13:38.12 (4)

3000 m NCAA Nampa ID 2012-03-10 7:46.81 (2) 7:49.78 (3)

10000 m Jordan Stanford CA 2012-04-29 27:31.38 (3) 27:27.96 (1)

10000 m West Austin TX 2012-05-24 did not reach final (0) tie! did not reach final (0)

10000 m NCAA Des Moines IA 2012-06-06 28:17.28 (3) 28:07.14 (1)

pringle wrote:

Why are you using 5k times to predict a 12k race?

A very successful college coach once told me why he thought 5k times were better at predicting xc success than 10k. Before he explained it to me, my thought was "You're crazy."

Now i agree with him.

In xc, you never get in a rhythm. It's often uncomfortable from the start and certainly not good for rhythm runners. The 10k is all about starting slow and finding a rhythm. This coach even told me, "You can fake a good 10k, you can't do that in the 5k."

I actually hadn't seen this thread but when I was talking to Jerry Schumacher the other day, I said to him, "On 5k PRs, I wonder where Derrick stands. How many of the Kenyans have broken 13:12?"

His response was along the lines of the question shouldn't be how many have done it - but how many can do it.

A very good point. The facts are an 8:03 steepler for Kenya was 30 seconds back in the junior race. My point? Kenya is full of amazing depth. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Here is the Kenyan lineup.

1 Philemon Rono KEN 8 Feb 91 35:22

2 Timothy Kiptoo KEN 80 35:25

3 Geoffrey Kirui KEN 16 Feb 93 35:26

4 Hosea Macharinyang KEN 12 Jun 86 35:32

5 Jonathan Ndiku KEN 18 Sep 91 35:33

6 Japheth Korir KEN 30 Jun 93 35:37

A 26:55 guy is certainly a sub 13:12 guy. They have two of those in the #1 and #3 finishers at their Trils who are pretty studly.

Philemon RONO – 8 Feb 91- Rono, who turned 22 a week ago Friday, has 13:20/26:55/60:58 PRs.

Timothy Kosgei KIPTOO – 2 Aug 84 – 33-year-old 13:24/27:45 guy was 2nd at Trials

Geoffrey Kipkorir KIRUI – 16 Feb 93 -13:20/26:55 guy won world junior bronze last year in 10,000.

Hosea Mwok MACHARINYANG – 12 Jun 86 – 26 year old, who was top 10 in 2006 and 2007 at Worlds, was 4th at Kenyan Trials. 13:09/61:38 pbs. 4th Beach to Beacon/8th Philly Half in 2011.

Jonathan Muia NDIKU – 18 Sep 91 – 2008 and 2010 world junior steeple champ has 8:07 pb but only ran 8:17 last year. Was 5th at Kenyan trials.

Japhet Kipyegon KORIR – 30 Jun 93 – If you believe his birth date, the 13:11 guy was 5th in juniors in 2009 at age 15 and a bronze medallist here in Poland in 2010 at 16.

I guess that we will find out soon enough.

I'm sticking to my prediction.

Both Derrick and Levins in top 10 (I give the nod to Derrick).

Ethiopia wins the team title.

No Kenyans in top 10 individually (I will most probably lose on that one)

I predict Levins beating out Derrick in a sprint finish, using his 11.5 100m speed.

Ejnedcjkncedckjn wrote:

I guess that we will find out soon enough.

I'm sticking to my prediction.

Both Derrick and Levins in top 10 (I give the nod to Derrick).

Ethiopia wins the team title.

No Kenyans in top 10 individually (I will most probably lose on that one)

I will give my counter prediction that Derrick and Levins will not both be in the top 10 and there will be at least 2 Kenyans in the top 10.

Agreed that Ethiopia wins and Derrick beats Levins.