RE: Could Sarah Baxter win NCAA XC Championships right now!?

No

And in three years, she will either not be running due to injury, physical maturity of her body, or emotional overload. You've heard it and seen it toooo many times before...unfortunately, she looks like the classic case of an overtrained young girl.

No

Aspiring Minds wrote:

And in three years, she will either not be running due to injury, physical maturity of her body, or emotional overload. You've heard it and seen it toooo many times before...unfortunately, she looks like the classic case of an overtrained young girl.

OR like lydia cheromei the world xc junior champ at age 13 and 2:21 marathoner at age 34, or meseret defar who ran 15:08 world youth best at age 16 and at age 26 ran 14:12 for 5000 and who at age 28 won olympic gold, OR tirunesh dibaba who won the world 5000 championship at 17 and who won the olympic 10000 this year, perhaps baxter will follow their lead and be an all time great still winning globals and attempting records in 10-15 years.

i wish people would give positive examples of runners who were great for their age in their youth, and then were world beaters in their late 20's- mid 30's, but the letsrun crowd will tell her because she is good at a young age means she wont amount to a top runner on the world level, and because of the negative feedback these kids who keep hearing this be it messageboards or elsewhere wind up subconciously if not conciously believing it, which mentally handicaps them from achieving their potential.

there is no reason baxter cant be a sub 14:30 for 5000 runner on a regular basis with 10 or so years of gradual progression, look at salazar with rupp anyone here who thought rupp when he was in high school would go on to a 26:48 for a track 10000? i sure DID NOT because of the negativity towards young top distance products, i would bet salazar extensively worked on or maybe even got a sport psychologist to make rupp believe he could do it. the africans dont seem to have the negative attitude they think this people from my tribe ran a good time so if i work hard i can do it too.

Sorry, but more damage is done by over exuberant folks gushing over young girls who are not even into their more mature bodies. For every Jordan Hasay, who manages to continue improving, there are ten young girls who don't make it through the process of growing up. Sorry, but those are the facts.

Aspiring Minds wrote:

Sorry, but more damage is done by over exuberant folks gushing over young girls who are not even into their more mature bodies. For every Jordan Hasay, who manages to continue improving, there are ten young girls who don't make it through the process of growing up. Sorry, but those are the facts.

in the USA due to coaches trying to get everything out of the athlete too quick, in ethiopia where long term development is emphasized it is different, dibaba's (all of them) defar, kidane, melkamu, the young ethiopian girl in the 800, will likely improve and be around in 10 years, the ethiopian girls you will see in 2014 at the world junior track championships will be better in 2024, time will tell.

with the men geb was at a high level over 20 years ago, got to the highest level, and though he has lost a step, he did run 27:20 for 10000 beating ritz by 30 seconds and ritz is having his second best year ever.

americans used to have longevity as the norm, steve scott, johnny grey, mary slaney was a star in age group before she got to high school, (dont count her if you dont want to due to the drug disqualification)

The testing windows set by MLB and Player Association is designed intentionally like USADA tests allowing PEDS to be used without being detected.

the other women would sit on her and outkick her

better than the best wrote:

She is in another league now, people have no idea how awesome she is yet. She will shatter Footlocker course record by 30 seconds if she chooses to run in it.

Highly unlikely. She edged out the Mt SAC record on a course perfectly suited to her so on a less optimal course she will do a lot better? Remember, Mt SAC is only 2.91 (or 2.93) miles (4.7km), not 3.105 miles long. I doubt she can run with the best college frosh in the country who just ran 5.93 km in just 3:33 more.

(1) Baxter is not overtrained and overraced. Seems like her coach is taking a low-key approach. Keep in mind that her freshman year, when she was already very good, she was kept out of the post-season meets. Coach and others didn't want to rush her into it.

(2) She has had a low-key fall this year. Was she at NIN either of the last two years? I'd say those who guide her are looking out for her.

(3) It looks like she has put on just a little more weight and muscle, but she still a lithe, distance-runner physique almost half-way through her junior year. That's a pretty good sign, so unless she's a late-bloomer physically ....

(4) She shredded a revered record by one of our country's best-ever preps. To think that she almost broke into the 15:xx's on the Mt. Sac course boggles the mind.

Aspiring Minds wrote:

Sorry, but more damage is done by over exuberant folks gushing over young girls who are not even into their more mature bodies. For every Jordan Hasay, who manages to continue improving, there are ten young girls who don't make it through the process of growing up. Sorry, but those are the facts.

Those aren't the facts. Those are your own made up statistics.

unless she's a late-bloomer physically ... she looks like she is 11. she is at her peak, things will change.

Simple Runner wrote:

(1) Baxter is not overtrained and overraced. Seems like her coach is taking a low-key approach. Keep in mind that her freshman year, when she was already very good, she was kept out of the post-season meets. Coach and others didn't want to rush her into it.

(2) She has had a low-key fall this year. Was she at NIN either of the last two years? I'd say those who guide her are looking out for her.

(3) It looks like she has put on just a little more weight and muscle, but she still a lithe, distance-runner physique almost half-way through her junior year. That's a pretty good sign, so unless she's a late-bloomer physically ....

(4) She shredded a revered record by one of our country's best-ever preps. To think that she almost broke into the 15:xx's on the Mt. Sac course boggles the mind.

I highly doubt she could win. Running 16:00 at Mt. SAC is roughly comparable to running 16:00 in the 5k on the track. Let's just say she could have run 15 seconds faster with competition (giving her the benefit of the doubt), she's a 15:45 5k girl. You think that's good enough for a national championship?

read douglas burke posts.....because he makes a lot sense!

Sarah has grown a lot in one year, did you see her at NXN last year, she was the smallest runner in the top 10. Her larger frame hasnt changed her style of running....glad of that. She has adapted well.

During her race (16flat) she looked relaxed and at no time did seem to be running out of her mind. I think if someone had been running with her she could easily ran a little faster and broke 1555 (or more). She made it look pretty easy....and recovery quickly....I think she was as "shock" as anyone after seeing her time.

Nice kid....I hope she "loves" our sport and continues to impress.

BirdDogger wrote:

she looks like she is 11.

she is at her peak, things will change.

You make no sense. According to you she looks like she's 11 (as a junior) but somehow she's reached her peak. Impressive thinking.

He means she should could suddenly add a cup size or two and three inches on her hips.

She actually has grown a lot since her freshman year, and is improving with her physical and mental maturity. She has a large base from running since she was little, but she is not overtrained in the slightest. In fact, she is only running about 40 miles/per week if that! If she could run 16:00 flat on that course with no contest from anyone, imagine what she could accomplish with the push of runners beside her? She is a patient, shy, and brilliant racer. She deserves more credit for what she has accomplished.

Exactly, every year we hear about some crop of young girls, with prepubescent figures, about to be the next ... yadda, yadda, yadda. Most of them are skinny waifs who are experiencing delayed puberty as a result of heavy endurance training and/or dieting. Delayed physical maturation is a benefit for young female distance runners.

vicesquadlarry wrote:

He means she should could suddenly add a cup size or two and three inches on her hips.

She is dang good... But would be lucky to be in the top 25. The top runners in NCAA are in another level.