SPMBLNPF wrote:
Of course, there has been some chatter about Galen attempting to break the U.S. 5000m record tomorrow in Zurich. This is not going to happen, as Galen's ceiling at 5000m is 12:55. Now even some of you dimwits can ascertain that if one's ceiling is 12:55, it is quite difficult to run 12:53. Galen will struggle tomorrow to even break 13, but I am not ruling out that he sets a personal best. Bernard Lagat is going to be ahead of Galen, and Galen will do well to finish in the top 8. Now that I have spoken, there is not much to do but wait for the unfolding of the obvious which I have written above.
SPMBLNPF,
It is obvious from your posts that you for some reason don't really want Galen Rupp to excel at long distance running; your posts tell people to rule out any hopes they have for Galen regarding his chances for either winning races, setting prs, or breaking records.
The olympics is the most important event for the sport of track and field (and arguably the most important sporting event in the world). The best runners from each country run in a "final" race to see who is the best in the world. When I say "final," I mean it carries more importance than other races in that same year, and more importance than any race in the previous 3 years. Think of it like playing ping pong with your friend who is of an equal level and he beats you a few times, you beat him a few times, and you guys are keeping track of the win-count and one of you says: "ok, ok, now this next game is THE final game...whoever wins is the better player and will win bragging rights." It's like trying to stop the never ending continuum of competition every so often to periodically determine who is the best competitor. The Olympics is not much different. It is more important than other races mainly because of its history and old tradition: human beings over the years have decided that every 4 years the Olympics will be that "final-ping-pong" type of event to see who is the best because we like to see who is the best. Well guess what? At this past Olympics of 2012 in London, Galen earned 2nd place - the silver medal.
I know this is no new news for you. I also know that you could come up with excuses why he did so well: like maybe the field was weak? Or maybe it was a slow race? Without delving into these two questions too much, I will say that Kenenisia Bekele was in the race who is in my mind the greatest distance runner of all time, along with Haile...and Galen beat him. This fact echoes the ping pong rivalry hypothesis that Bekele beat Galen a few times, once at World Champs in Osaka and once at World Champs at Berlin, once at that 10,000 meter race where Galen ran 26:48 and Galen beat Bekele once at Pre and once at London). You probably might say well, they're not friends, and they are not of an equal level, but my point in writing that example wasn't to create a perfect analogy but rather to put into perspective the importance of the Olympic men's 10,000 meter final race in relation to other 10,000 meter races. Regarding the potential slow-race-argument, 27:30 might be slow compared to a rabbited world record pace, but it is within 4 seconds of what the average winning time of the Olympic final has been over the last 40 years. By the way, the average winning time over tha last 40 years in the Men's Olympic 10,000 meter final is 27:26.30 (http://trackandfield.about.com/od/longdistance/qt/olym10000men.htm). Winning time this year: 27:30.42.
Now you are confused. You are probably thinking: "I thought this thread was supposed to be about predicting Galen's time for the upcoming 5k?" My response is about to address that question. I personally think he could do it. The reasons why I think he could do it, other people have already written them better than me here in this thread, like the fact that he can close in 52 seconds etc. And if there are other people out there who agree with me, yall know what to do, +1.
It should be brought to everyone's attention that the title of your post wasn't really an invitation for an honest debate regarding the prediction of GR's time...it was a statement saying he has no chance at the U.S. 5000 meter record. First of all, don't be so negative. I mean I guess you could argue that your title prompted a lot of responses but that's not the nicest way to go about it, especially since there are a lot of people who are inspired (me included...in fact I went for a run right after I saw Galen win the silver medal) by his recent achievements. No matter how you respond to the previous sentence, I really wont care. That's a segue into a question for you, SPMBLNPF: why to write something so negative? Who knows why, that would require a thorough analysis of your emotions, behavior, personality, major and recent life experiences. By the way, feel free to answer that question.
SPMBLNPF you remind me of those people who say global warming is such a problem and that human beings caused it and we are 100% to blame. Any tiny indication that it might be a true theory they get on the media where everyone can see them and spout their truths based on facts. So maybe you heard that Galen is a little under the weather right now, so you think he has "NO CHANCE" or maybe you saw him get beat in a race in High School or in college and you think he has "NO CHANCE." Who knows?
No matter how you respond to this post, I dont really care (well actually, I am interested to see if you answer my question to you 2 paragraphs above, and also what is your 5k pr, you know, so that everyone can see what kind of a person we are dealing with). You didn't really make me mad to even write this post here. It was actually a good thing your thread made it to the homepage because as a result of reading it and pondering some ideas, I got some good practice on common-sense writing.
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One more thing: the more arguments you use to bash Rupp, the more homosexual you are.