Thoughts on the 100m in view of Blake's 9.69

9.69 is apparently a time you can run after feeling sick all week now.

At least he has the cojones to admit that not racing Bolt is all about the money. Which is curious ... if they never race then they never get anything. I understand holding out for good money but what they should do is announce that they want a race, then open it up to the largest bidder of the remaining euro meets. That way they get the largest money for a rematch and the fans get another head to head matchup.

I'm really excited about Gay's comeback. He could definitely be back in 9.7 low shape next year, which means he could challenge Blake, especially over 200. Bolt is still untouchable as long as he's healthy and not DQed.

Responding to various posters,

I'm also very excited about Gay's comeback. If he can do this off a single season of training, he will either be in solid 9.7's next year, or sustain a career-ending injury, one or the other.

And about Blake and his so-called "perfect race"...while that may in fact have been the "perfect race" for the August 2012 Blake, the August 2013 Blake is likely to be a different person, same as the August 2012 Blake was a different person than the August 2011 Blake.

It is obvious that Blake is still developing. Not only are his times dropping dramatically--.12 in the past year, from an adjusted 9.82 to 9.70--he is also undergoing visible physical changes.

If he continues to develop, and runs another perfect race, it will be faster than 9.70 Given his recent trajectory, I cannot see any good reason to believe that he will NOT continue to develop.

As far as Gay goes, I will re-iterate what I have said before: his deficiency is that he cannot put sufficient force to the ground, in the direction opposite the direction in which he is running, and that is why his start/early acceleration will never be as good as the best, like Powell and Gatlin. What Gay does exceedingly well is apply force smoothly during the swinging of his limbs, to generate high limb velocity, and then subsequently turn it off smoothly and have a brief period of relaxation, all of which is great when running at speed, as the only force that has to be applied to the track is in the downward direction to keep you a consistent height above the track, and in the backward direction to overcome the retarding force of air friction. The rest of the force is used to overcome friction in the body, and to accelerate the limbs.

That is why I have said that Gay windmills at the start--he exhibits greater limb motion, both range and speed of limbs, relative to the acceleration he achieves, than do many other 100m guys, especially the good accelerators like Gatlin, Powell, Kimmons, etc. He is not economical at the start, at all. When he tries to be, he still runs out, but with longer strides, looking for that feel that is required for his smooth power application, rather than taking quick kicks at the track like Powell, Gatlin, Kimmons, Carter, Collins, and even Bolt. The longer strides enable a slightly longer contact time, which gives him the added milliseconds he needs to feel the ground and develop that force when he is in contact with it.

It's not that Gay's start/early acceleration suck on an absolute basis, they are in fact quite good...however it isn't competitive with the very best, at their very best.

Can Gay change his start/accel for the better? If he simply practices a different mechanic enough, will his neurology and timing respond in kind, following the mechanic? I don't know, and whether he should even attempt it is a tough call, given the fact that he is 9.8x this year, and likely to be 9.7x next year, with his current start.

BTW, it is incredible that we are even talking about a 9.7/9.8 guy having any sort of "deficiency" that needs to be overcome.

Also, an earlier poster suggested that Blake might want to lengthen his stride at top speed. Blake actually has a decent stride length at speed, the same as Gay, using what are probably slightly shorter legs, meaning that he has a more powerful stride. We have seen guys "stride it out" over the years in the end phase of some great 100m sprints. Bolt has done it, Lewis has done it, and I think that even Blake has done it--when it looks like they have almost completely relaxed, and are just letting the speed "flow" over the last 15 or 20m.

At that point it is all about NOT decelerating. Your cycling is dying, your timing is not as good, the question is what to do about it. By "striding it out", you can actually decrease the stride rate for the same forward speed, since you are using a longer stride--the critical question is how long you can keep this up before your footplant on the lengthened stride will begin to retard your forward motion. IMHO this CAN be done, but only for a few strides. Given a stride length of 2.5-3.0m, if held for 15m, this would be 5-6 strides, which is about right in my experience. After that I think 2 things happen: first, the progressive fatigue starts to limit even your decreased stride and cycling rate, and second, you get lazy rather than just relaxed. The relaxation phase when "striding it out" should be viewed as a transition phase, that is followed by shutdown. It will be a decelerating phase, but minimizing the deceleration that occurs over that 5-6 strides.

I have commented that Blake looked a bit tight at the end of this race. When I said that, I meant tight in reference to how I have seen him look before, when the speed seemed to be just "flowing". So I guess I agree with the poster, that he might want to relax more at the end and lengthen his stride just a bit.

It must be said that the other way you can avoid deceleration is drugs. Not only do they maintain your muscular ability to cycle effectively, there is suggestion that they can change your neurology. Whether such a change is a direct effect of a particular PED, or a secondary effect in response to muscular changes, is not particularly relevant--the upshot is that drugs undeniably help in this phase, as Francis repeated ad nauseum. Whether they help by aiding the start/acceleration and preserving resources for the last 20m, or whether they help the last 20m directly, is relevant to what type of sprinter will benefit the most. Like I have said, I think that power sprinters will benefit the most, and history appears to bear out that belief.

Another point from another poster: the Lausanne meet. Before this 9.69, I questioned the timing in view of Powell's 9.72, which was also realized immediately following an Olympic Games. There was also Fredericks' incredible 9.86 (-0.4), run 3 weeks before the 1996 Games. To be sure, Lausanne is not Eugene, Clermont, or Rieti. The other athletes in this race posted times that were reasonable, so it looks like this was a legit 9.69, and makes Powell's 9.72 look legit as well.

I have been to that track more than once. I love the facility, I love the whole area. It is beautiful, and yes, at a bit of elevation. I guess I believe the times now.

Also, as far as Blake and Powell go at Lausanne, 3 possibilities come to mind: first, that they are better at one-off's than they are at rounds; second, that they perform much better when relieved of pressure; third, that they compete better later in the evening than earlier in the day.

So, since I called Blake 2 years ago, IIRC, as the next 9.7x guy, who will be next? Yes, I know that Gatlin ran a real 9.79 this year. Top contenders, assuming things continue as they have this year, have to include R. Bailey, Ashmeade, and Bledman. If other guys catch on to the Jamaican system, anybody could do it--Dix, Lemaitre, Martina, Rodgers, Kimmons, any of the low-9.9x guys, really. Put Gemili in the mix at high-9.8x/low 9.9x next year, if he figures it out.

Ultimately, 9.69, by the likes of Yohan Blake? .17 faster than Lewis and Fredericks? .15 faster than Bailey and Surin? Basically .10 faster than Gay? Faster than Powell? .10 faster than Greene and Johnson? I don't know exactly why, I just have a difficult time believing that Blake is intrinsically exceptional, which is what it would take to be faster than those other guys. Not only that, but he is beginning to pile up these insane times, like Greene did in the 9.80-range. Why do I have difficulty believing it? Many reasons, already gone through on this board.

For now, we wait...for the 200m in Brussels. I hope that the conditions will be perfect. Even though Bolt was the best thing to have happened to t&f over the past few years as far as the casual fan was concerned, he was a disaster for the other athletes concerned, both in terms of time and money. Blake, OTOH, especially if he breaks one of Bolt's records, will be the very best thing ever to happen to t&f, not only for the fans who will now have a legitimate competition to watch for top spot, but also for the athletes, who now have a leader to emulate in the hunt for Bolt. Blake has opened the door for everybody else, in a sense. Because Blake will never be busted (because if he is, Bolt will go down), he might have an advantage over other athletes who are not in his unique position--but look for guys from other places, not too far away, to follow his lead. The apple doesn't fall far from the tree. Look for Ashmeade and other Jamaicans first. And remember the cross-pollination between Jamaica and the USA, so look for the Americans second.

Blake has opened the door, all that remains is for the relevant authorities to give other athletes the effective green light to walk through it.

And Dick Pound is yesterday's news. This is a new era, regardless of the corruption and collusion, it is a fact. Yohan Blake 9.69 (-0.1) is a fact, as was his 19.26

I knew Blake had it in him to run 9.6

That's what i initially thought after seeing him jog 9.85 in the semis of London.

But he was so tense the last 50m when Tyson Gay was stride for stride with him (and Tyson even moving past him for a few meters briefly in the race)

He was not under control, too much pressure and even the commentators saw it. This 9.69 is what he should have been capable of at London.

body master--

I also believed that he would perform better than he did in London, which belief formed part of the reason that I thought that Bolt wouldn't win. But honestly, I didn't think he would hit 9.70 so soon.

You realize that this represents a .12 improvement in a single year? And not from 11.5 to 11.4, but from 9.82 to 9.69!

That is, from the stratosphere, to the mesosphere.

Sprintgeezer wrote:

That is why Blake, like those other guys, will always have a better start/drive phase than will Gay, because the start and acceleration are quickly alternating power strokes, which lead to a smoothness of acceleration. Gay uses the relaxation phase, which is why he takes long strides at the start, with full recovery even on his first few strides. That will always be slower.

The disadvantage to power sprinting manifests at speed, because power sprinting is more energy-intensive. That is why guys like Gay shine in the last half of the race, because they have the reserves, and because the relaxation portion enables them to have greater joint angles, which not only gives them some stretch reflex, but also enables a slightly longer stride, preserving the same top speed with less effort.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Power sprinting. Smoothness of acceleration. Relaxation phase. Joint angles. Stretch reflex.

Nice!

Knowing about science, I readily admit that it is complete and total pseudoscience. While that doesn't make it repeatably demonstrably right, it also doesn't make it wrong.

Look at what James Watt was able to achieve with the steam engine before thermodynamics became a mathematical science, not to mention that it took others years to understand just exactly what Carnot was saying, when at the time what he was saying would have been called "pseudoscience" by today's standards. In fact, he used a subsequently discredited model--the caloric theory of heat--as the very basis of his writings, which although resting on this now-discredited model, have proved to have had immense value as a foundational document of all of thermodynamics.

All those phenomena I mention have a physiologic basis, and have been observed and measured. As far as smoothness of acceleration goes, one can only accelerate in the forward direction when one's foot is in contact with the ground--the less time between contacts, the smoother the velocity profile.

Your point is well-taken, however, and I absolutely recognize the limitations of what I'm saying. But I still think it's worth consideration.

Geezer, its a free country and you have the right to believe that Blake/Bolt are doping if you want. But WHY do you constantly state that there is a WADA conspiracy to protect them? If it wasn't done for the Americans during Balco, do you really believe they would bend over backwards for a little caribbean island? To the contrary,WADA would relish the opportunity to bury them six feet under and show the world their mettle, as a worthy organization.

Lausanne is where WADA originated so I'm sure Blake underwent as much scrutiny or maybe more, as he did at the Olympics. If your ridiculous assumption were to materialize as truth, WADA would cease to exist. The simple fact is that the Jamaicans and JADCO are well within complinace of WADA criteria. Lets not be so quick to convict without proof.

http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20120816/lead/lead2.html

Whaaat--

There is no such thing as an autonomous international organization.

Also, there is no such thing as a national organization that does not have nationalistic interests.

Finally, if you will learn about organizations, you will find that the primary goal of the majority of such organizations is the preservation and vitality of the organization itself, entirely apart from any other stated objectives it may pursue.

You have got to remember that I really don't care, one way or another. What is the essential difference between everyone clean running 9.8/9.9, and everyone dirty running 9.5/9.6/9.7? It is often argued that juicing requires resources to which not everybody has equal access, but the equal access argument sailed long ago. Unequal access to food, justice, security, travel, training, equipment, etc. is a fact that will never be remedied.

It comes down to the personal decisions of those who show talent. Would I, as a 10.5 guy, have roided to become a 10-flat guy? No. How do I know? Because I didn't. I had the opportunity, and I chose testicles and healthy internal organs over a speed increase.

And that's the way that it should be, and those who choose whatever way they choose should be able to justify it both to themselves, and to others, and therefore be able to live with their decision.

A real problem comes in protecting the interests of the vulnerable, especially children. How early is too early to juice? What kind of juice? Juice how? You know, showing promise early is of paramount importance. Is it safe to administer HGH to otherwise normally healthy kids? These are the difficult questions, that really no regime can answer successfully, even one with frequent and intense testing. If kids are off the radar, they are off the radar, period--the point is that there is nothing that any organization or governing body can reasonably do about it. It involves decisions that have to be made at the individual level, on the level of the parents/guardians, and the coach. Policing these decisions is beyond the purview of the types of organizations we're talking about, and must be left to other, very local organizations to deal with as they choose, like social service agencies, churches, local criminal and child protection authorities, etc.

So, apart from protecting kids, I don't really care if everybody is doped or not, because I'm still satisfied with my decision to NOT dope. I would make the same decision today. In fact, I DO make the same decision today. No testosterone supplementation for me, as was constantly advertised on NBC during the Olympics in the construction-themed commercial ad.

And look at me. Top 10, not going full-out, while other guys my age are creaky old men. If I lined up against the drug-users of the past who are anywhere near my age, I would absolutely kick their asses.

So, WADA is not bending over backwards for a little caribbean island, they are preserving their own interests by carefully harboring the goose that has laid the golden egg. Contrary to what you said, any truth in my suggestions would be the very reason that WADA continues to exist as an organization.

I'd like to see the same 100M final line up in Mexico City on a resurfaced track, like London's in similar weather and thin air like what Tommy Smith had when he ran 9.98 back then.

...Imagine...

Sprintgeezer wrote:

Finally, if you will learn about organizations, you will find that the primary goal of the majority of such organizations is the preservation and vitality of the organization itself, entirely apart from any other stated objectives it may pursue...

...So, WADA is not bending over backwards for a little caribbean island, they are preserving their own interests by carefully harboring the goose that has laid the golden egg. Contrary to what you said, any truth in my suggestions would be the very reason that WADA continues to exist as an organization.

If you knew anything about organizations, you wouldn't have written such drivel. Your arguments are contradictory and absurd at best. You would seek to twist the obvious to conform to your warped suspicions.

An organization that exists for the sole purpose of fighting drug use in sports, would commit suicide by protecting the very violators they seek to uncover. This "goose" you speak of is not so golden that it is worth their entire organization - which is surely what would be at stake if a plot so sinister were to be uncovered.

Sorry, but your doping accusations are not holding water and portraying entire anti-doping agencies as being in bed with the dopers simply shows how far you'll reach to attempt to prove a point, no matter how absurd. Please man, stop pretending as if you give one shit about the sport and I doubt you could break 20 - much less 10.5.

Anyone who runs under 14 seconds is doping.

Put the USADA on him! Surely, they will find out that he is drugged to the gills!

WADA wrote:

Anyone who runs under 14 seconds is doping.

Geezer, you really think Ashmeade is the next big thing? what about Warren Weir?

I called Blake as the next one a few years back. When? What did you say?

I'm now calling Ashmeade as the next one. I have a feeling we won't ever hear you taking credit for this one.

If they took drugs out of sports they would render themselves obsolete.

So we have a catch 22. Sorry "Whaaaat?" but the only thing you're spewing out is opinion and trying to label it as fact.

In fact, its YOUR posts that are contradictory and absurd at best. How can you be so hypocritical lmao!

As mentioned from the above poster, the entire WADA organization and any drug organization are all catch 22's.

They exist to eradicate drugs yet if that happens they run out of business. And sprint geezer and the guy who linked that Terrance Institutions video are COMPLETELY right. ALL organizations seek to preserve themselves and there best interests.

To put it in context for you whaaat.... since you have a hard time comprehending why the world is so corrupt..... there is a serious possibility of drug coverups and blind eyes toward Jamaica.

You have serious difficulties comprehending that the world and many organizations are corrupt. I can't even begin to rationalize how naive you are to think the world is all sunshine and daisies.

It's not absurd AT ALL to believe that doping agencies are "in bed" with well known dopers. It happened with Carl Lewis. Why can't it happen with Bolt?

Your "would commit suicide" sentence was very funny. I had a good laugh reading that one BTW

Gallagher--

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=3624519

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=3614262

for starters.

I don't have time right now to find the first and most direct post. Why don't you look for it?

Oh yes, that's right...

Smith didn't run the 100 in Mexico City. Jimmie Hines won in 9.95. Smith won the 200 in 19.83. Smith was the greatest 200/400 man ever, including today's runners. Never reached his potential. After Lee Evans set the world record at Mexico City in the 400 (43.88), Smith had a match race with him and smoked him.