Haile reveals Bekele´s tactics

Precious Roy wrote:

In the cool temps in London, and absent a wet track, look for 26:50 to be the pace needed to win. 54-53 last lap will be needed to seal the deal. Rupp has the potential to be there, but so do seven other runners.

Why do people keep saying stuff like this? The OG record is over 27 minutes, and final laps under 54 seconds are historically the domain of only Bekele at his peak.

Just had a quick look at the times from the last 3 Olympic 10ks

2000 Sydney

26:21 at the bell

57 last lap and Geb takes gold

2004 Athens

26:12 at the bell

53.8 last lap for Bekele

57 last lap for silver

2008 Beijing Olympic Record

26:08 at the bell

53 last lap for Bekele

55 last lap for silver

57 last lap for bronze

The races are on youtube if anyone wants to get more detailed splits.

You guys are forgetting that Rupp is much better this year than he was last. He closed in 60 at 2746 pace, i wouldnt be surprised if he can close in 55 this year off that same pace and if he does there is a shot at bekele. There is a chance Bekele could pop a 52 but... 54sh is more of a reasonable prediction.

Hard and fast could easily mean something like 13:50-14:00 first 5k followed by whoever can close in a sub 13 5k. That would certainly separate the contenders from the pretenders over the last 3k.

As far as I'm concerned Rupp can't beat Farah. Farah is pretty close to his peak and Bekele has been improving every race. You don't see that sort of improvement outside of the American high school scene. It makes for the classic battle of two long standing training techniques: the late season peak vs. peak early and hold the plateau.

themanontherun wrote:

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Why do people keep saying stuff like this? The OG record is over 27 minutes, and final laps under 54 seconds are historically the domain of only Bekele at his peak.

The World Championship meet record is 26:46 and all three medalists went under 27.

And all three of them will be in the London race.

Jeilan closed in 52. just last year with Farah at 53.

This 10k will break the OG record simply because the East Africans are aware of the threat of slower (unnamed) runners with the possibility of producing a devastating kick in a tactical race. There are a lot of fast runners who know their best chance is to push the pace.

As a Canadian, it bothers me to see how much you hate on one of your own athletes. We don't have too many athletes in the hunt for a medal on the track this year and Levins is a long shot, not likely to be a factor, lets be honest about that.

You have Rupp, your best chance and sure he's a gimpy looking awkward guy, but he also has a lot of balls and one thing is for certain he will be in the hunt for a medal for as long as he can hold on whether the pace is fast or slow.

That 10K AR race somebody posted to show how weak his kick is, wow he ran a gutsy race even moving to the lead with 800 to go. 6 Africans and a white guy in the mix with 1km to go and he moves to the lead. He wasn't trying to hang on, he was trying to win.

I predict a medal for Rupp and will be cheering for him (and Levins)

Ralphie! wrote:

This 10k will break the OG record simply because the East Africans are aware of the threat of slower (unnamed) runners with the possibility of producing a devastating kick in a tactical race. There are a lot of fast runners who know their best chance is to push the pace.

Can they push the pace the whole way and still finish fast?

If not they will be beaten by Mr. Rupp.

I'm not sure Haile revealed Bekele's plan, so much as stated the obvious. Because I think Bekele's weakness right now is his speed, and he probably doesn't have the kick to beat a Farah or, perhaps, even a Rupp.

So to win, he's going to have to make it a hard race, to wear down their ability to respond in the final push.

I think Bekele will surprise us. It goes without saying he's wants that 3rd 10,000 title, and I don't think he's gonna give it up without a mighty good fight.

Needless to say, I think we're going to have a hell of a show Saturday. This might be one of the most exciting 10K fields, right up there with '72 and '64.

As a fellow Canadian, I too am amazed at the hate the US has for its own runners.

Up here the running community is super supportive of all the (distance) athletes at the games.

We are proud of our runners. It seems weird that a patriotic country like the US hates its own.

Here are the top four guys in the field in terms of personal bests:

Bekele

Tadesse

Farah

Rupp

That's the list.

asdfsadf wrote:

As a fellow Canadian, I too am amazed at the hate the US has for its own runners.

Up here the running community is super supportive of all the (distance) athletes at the games.

We are proud of our runners. It seems weird that a patriotic country like the US hates its own.

...even though levins is such an obvious doper?

(just kidding - but I know you think everyone is on the juice)

Unless Tariku decides to spend the entire race helping his brother I doubt he will be anything less than top 4

Is there anything that suggests running sub 26:40 is Bekele's tactics.

Actually I think such a fast time would more likely be driven by the Kenyan team. There was a thread some weeks ago saying the Kenyans were going to use team tactics to drive a hard, fast race right from the gun. They think this is where Bekele is most vulnerable. It does sound plausible. And frankly they might do that because they are scared of Rupp too and want to take away Rupp's kick.

post of the day, every day.

I'm not a Rupp fanboy, but I'm a fan of American distance running, which means I will be cheering for Rupp every step of the way in an international race such as the Olympics, especially since this is the first time an American has had a legitimate shot at a medal in the 10k in a very very long time.

1980

GOLD Miruts Yifter, ETH 27:42.69

SILVER Kaarlo Maaninka, FIN 27:44.28

BRONZE Mohamed Kedir,ETH 27:44.64

1984

GOLD Alberto Cova, ITA 27:47.54

SILVER Mick McLeod, GBR 28:06.22

BRONZE Mike Musyoki, KEN 28:06.46

1988

GOLD Brahim Boutayeb, MAR 27:21.46

SILVER Salvatore Antibo, ITA 27:23.55

BRONZE Kipkemboi Kimeli, KEN 27:25.16

1992

GOLD Khalid Skah, MAR 27:46.70

SILVER Richard Chelimo, KEN 27:47.72

BRONZE Addis Abebe, ETH 28:00.07

1996

GOLD Haile Gebrselassie, ETH 27:07.34

SILVER Paul Tergat, KEN 27:08.17

BRONZE Salah Hissou, MAR 27:24.67

2000

GOLD Haile Gebrselassie, ETH 27:18.20

SILVER Paul Tergat, KEN 27:18.29

BRONZE Assefa Mezgebu, ETH 27:19.75

2004

GOLD Kenenisa Bekele, ETH 27:05.10

SILVER Sileshi Sihine, ETH 27:09.39

BRONZE Zersenay Tadesse, ERI 27:22.57

2008

GOLD Kenenisa Bekele, ETH 27:01.17

SILVER Sileshi Sihine, ETH 27:02.77

BRONZE Micah Kogo, KEN 27:04.11

Yeah this race is definitely going sub 26:40.

*slams iPhone into face

Bekele will not be beaten. Sorry for all the Rupp lovers.

uihgt wrote:

I just wish the damn race was run already so people can stop repeating the same things.

"Rupp can close in 52"

"No he can't."

ad infinitum.

Unfortunately, after the race we'll be in for a round of wankers explaining what should have happened.

uihgt wrote:

I just wish the damn race was run already so people can stop repeating the same things.

"Rupp can close in 52"

"No he can't."

ad infinitum.

Unfortunately, after the race we'll be in for a round of wankers explaining what should have happened.