girls gettin real wild wrote:
Not very far at all. He will be there on the last lap but probably be outkicked.
He needs sub 8 shape to have a real chance at a medal. He might be in sub 8 shape by the London final. Barely.
So far in distance medal chances:
Rupp 5+10 40%
Lagat 5 30%
1500m guys 25%
*Jager 3kS 20%
Symmonds 8 20%
Hall Mar 15%
We should get at least 1 or 2 medals on the men's side. This is definitely a big improvement from the teams in Beijing, Athens, and Sydney. The women should also get a medal or two probably either Montano and Uceny/Simpson.
This is a joke right?
i don't have time to change them all but off the top of my head:
Probable Probabilities wrote:
Adjusting for your obvious US bias we are left with the following realistic probabilities for US medals:
Rupp 5+10 10%
Lagat 5 25%
1500m guys 10%
*Jager 3kS 10%
Symmonds 8 10%
Hall Mar 0%
Overall about a 50% chance of zero medals on the men's side. Perhaps a 40% of one and 10% chance of more than one.
So the guy who will have either the fourth or fifth best mark in the field only has a 1 in 10 shot at a medal? Yep, that makes sense.
Giant Johnson wrote:
Would you morons stop giving out "percentages" on US medal chances. Pretending that your emotional desires on the matter are somehow mathematical calculations is really annoying.
That looks better.
Off the top of my head, I'd say something like...
Rupp 30% (mostly for the 10k)
Lagat 20% (real tough field in the 5k...)
Everyone else: 5%
If Jager was Kenya dropping 11 seconds in one race, we would be accussing him of doping, how is that fair?