Current odds of US distance medal ... 85%

How can we lose!

Is this men only?

Not a math major, huh?

one medal for the men would be awesome. I don't think people realize what an accomplishment that is in the land of advertised foodstamps and chuck e cheese.

Ghola wrote:

Is this men only?

When you factor in women, we are clearly over 100% to win a medal.

is it true we havent had a 800m and above mens medal since shorter in montreal?

cenotaph wrote:

is it true we havent had a 800m and above mens medal since shorter in montreal?

False.

Not how percentages work wrote:

When you factor in women, we are clearly over 100% to win a medal.

this.

Nope. wrote:

cenotaph wrote:

is it true we havent had a 800m and above mens medal since shorter in montreal?

False.

your response doesnt make sense. i posed a question

cenotaph wrote:

is it true

It is false.

Nope. wrote:

cenotaph wrote:

is it true

It is false.

see thats better

i checked and youre right

we have had 2 800m medals since montreal and 1 steeplechase medal. no 1500, no 5000, no 10000, no marathon. pretty lousy results. totally blanked since an 800m bronze in 1992. ouch

cenotaph wrote:

no marathon. pretty lousy results. totally blanked since an 800m bronze in 1992. ouch

False.

amended...

800 meters... american medal 7/1 12.5%

1500 meters... american medal 19/1 10%

5000 meters... american medal 2/1 33%

10000 meters... american medal 4/1 20%

marathon ... american medal 9/1 10%

adding these chances up equals 85.5 % chance of an american medaling in the olympics distance races.

Again.... please send amendments.

cenotaph wrote:

Nope. wrote:

It is false.

see thats better

i checked and youre right

we have had 2 800m medals since montreal and 1 steeplechase medal. no 1500, no 5000, no 10000, no marathon. pretty lousy results. totally blanked since an 800m bronze in 1992. ouch

Didn't Meb get a silver medal?

hes not american

cenotaph wrote:

hes not american

Ain't that the truth!

Who cares if we take a distance medal, we're number one in stats, whoooooooo!

numbers are fun to play with wrote:

I enjoy to make odds for events, so i will try and throw out some odds. I honestly study football betting and only follow pro running casually, so I dont think I will get them quite right, but i think it would be interesting to project.

So just to get the ball rolling... Please amend...

800 meters... american medal 8/1 12.5%

1500 meters... american medal 10/1 10%

5000 meters... american medal 3/1 33%

10000 meters... american medal 5/1 20%

marathon ... american medal 10/1 10%

adding these chances up equals 85.5 % chance of an american medaling in the olympics distance races.

Again.... please send amendments.

Youre an onvious troll but ill bite.... that wouldnt make sense to add up all the chances.. say u flip a coin twice. The odds of heads on the first flip is fifty percent as well as the second one... by ur logic there is a 100 prrcrnt chance ull get heads at least once. So i hope u dont bet much because u need a course in probability 101. Alsoiapologize this is ped off a tablet and i was gonna give oddsbelow but messed up and cant scroll... 800 6.25% 1500 10% steeple 1% 5k 20% 10k 20% mar 1%... if i did this math right i give it just umder 50% chance of happening

1500 10/1 10%

steeple

Given your probabilities, and not counting steeplechase, the mathematically correct answer is about 62.2%. That is the probability of 1 or more medals. About 37.8% that the US gets no medals.

I think your numbers are on the high side and it's 50/50 that the US gets no medals.