I enjoy to make odds for events, so i will try and throw out some odds. I honestly study football betting and only follow pro running casually, so I dont think I will get them quite right, but i think it would be interesting to project.
So just to get the ball rolling... Please amend...
800 meters... american medal 8/1 12.5%
1500 meters... american medal 10/1 10%
5000 meters... american medal 3/1 33%
10000 meters... american medal 5/1 20%
marathon ... american medal 10/1 10%
adding these chances up equals 85.5 % chance of an american medaling in the olympics distance races.
Again.... please send amendments.