Maybe your PR is only what it is because you ran with a group that ran really fast and you know that it's very unlikely that you can run your PR in a solo effort. The day you set your PR, you probably felt much better than you usually do at that pace for reasons that you can't fully understand. 9 times out of 10 if you set out to run your PR, you instantly feel crappy and implode. So the bottom line is racing is really really painful, and you just can't run your PR at will.
Lets bring economics into this!
In economics we learned of a little thing called the dominant strategy. It's when you make the best decision for yourself, regardless of whatever the other people do. And it's pretty simple.
If you lead a fast pace, you have less chances of winning.
If you follow the slow pace, you have a greater chance of winning.
Therefore in order to maximize your chances of winning...FOLLOW!!!
Since this applies to everybody, everybody will try to avoid leading a fast pace. So after the quick 100m start, the people up front are like "wait, dominant strategy!". They remember not to lead a fast pace, so they slow down or move back. But then since those guys moved back, you have new people up front who are like "damn, I'm up front. Wait, dominant strategy! Better slow it down to maximize chances of winning!". So they slow it down even further.
The result is the pace is slowed down almost to the point of a jog. Usually 60 pace in 1500m, 53+ in an 800m, etc..
This is freakin economics dude. It's one of those things where you can't blame any individual runner. After all, they're choosing their dominant strategy because they want to win. So they go slow. All it shows is that they're being smart and rational. In order for a fast-paced race all the time, someone in every single race would have to go against this dominant strategy, and be the sacrificial lamb. So whose it gonna be? The guy with the slowest pr? The guy with the fastest pr? The #6 qualifying time? There's just no way to ensure every single race is fast. And no way to enforce such a thing. And of course you can't punish any athletes for running a slow race, because they were just following their dominant strategy.
Fact is, slow, tactical races are just the nature of the sport. Appreciate it, embrace it. Enjoy it. And every once in a while when there is a boss front-running a 5000m (see 2003 WC men's 5000m final), because they're so rare it'll be all the more enjoyable.
ttc wrote:
Webb ignored the field and led most of the 2004 trials.
Webb had a free roll at the 2004 trials. No one else had the A standard so that Webb had the unique position of being able to step off the track and eat a hot dog (not metaphorically -- literally). He didn't even need to finish the race and he was assured a spot on the team.
Oh and also the games are about place, not times. Olympic records even seem a little pointless, except maybe for historical reasons.
bangalangadanga wrote:
remember that one time when that one guy from morocco had a slower pr than that guy from ethiopia and he ended up outkicking him little feller?
Um.....you're proving my point there, guy.
Bekele would have been better off going hard wire-to-wire, not turning it into a kicker's race against a kicker.
What you thinking posting this? Thanks for the support!
In 1988 John Ngugi, though already won 3 world cross country titles, ran away from the field from the start of the 5000m race for the simple reason he lacked the kick. His lead grew so big that other runners could not catch him though they chased him hard. But like many said here, it takes alot of mental strength and practice to lead from the front especially in a field like the Olympics or world champs.
* wrote:
When you run enough races an watch enough races, you understand why people do not just go out and run their fastest pace when racing to win.
It takes more energy to lead than to follow.
When the field has equal abilities, you cannot lead the whole way and get away.
The examples of people leading and winning are cases of runners that are clearly better than the field, at least on that day.
If a person with a lesser PR leads at his PR pace, the others will simply follow closely and eat him up. They are not likely to hang back at a much slower pace if there is a juicy rabbit up front.
Though some times a slower person has broken away and ignored by the rest and wound up stealing the race. Pretty rare.
Hard to find many or any examples of a mediocre runner just going at their best pace and holding on to win.
All of the examples by ttc were races where the field could not keep up.
If you are the median or lesser runner of the field they will keep up a d beat you.
rupp-certified saladbar wrote:
bangalangadanga wrote:remember that one time when that one guy from morocco had a slower pr than that guy from ethiopia and he ended up outkicking him little feller?
Um.....you're proving my point there, guy.
Bekele would have been better off going hard wire-to-wire, not turning it into a kicker's race against a kicker.
What you thinking posting this? Thanks for the support!
Going hard wire-to-wire would not necessarily have been good for Bekele. If you're talking about Athens 2004 (which I assume you are) Bekele's pr was 12:37.35. That was fast, but you had Kipchoge who had run 12:46.53 that same year, and El G who ran 12:50.24 the year before, also in the race. So if Bekele had opened up the race in 60/61's like in 2003 WC, he likely would have tired and gotten out-kicked at the end just like at the 2003 WC final. Only instead he probably would've been beaten by both El G AND Kipchoge, like the year before. And so he would have ended up with a bronze instead of a silver. So, ya, Bekele was definitely better off letting it go slow.
ttc wrote:
The 'takes more effort mentally' is false. If the runner chooses to be a p@@sy, then it's on them. I can see if it's a pr pace given you have no feel for correct pace & muscle memory for that pace. But if you're a 3:52 miler racing 3:58 milers, then just run a 3:53-3:54, ignoring the field and be done with it. Gabe, Webb, Ritz, Hall, BK, T.Williams did it, while the followers lost. If you find it mentally too hard, then you're a mental p@@ssy who deserves to lose- and prob. will.
The problem is that in these championship races, legit contenders for the win usually have pr's within pretty close range of each other. In 2011 WC 5000m final, Farah, Lagat, and Merga all had a 12:53 pr. Why would any one of them go out at pr pace, knowing that there were at least two guys with them who have run within a second of that time before?
ttc wrote:
...In many races, there should be at least 1 runner who's best chance for success is to lead...
Donn Cabral
What's with this crap about leading taking more "mental effort"? It's a freaking foot race -- almost no mental effort involved! Maybe if you were trying to solve differential equations while running...
And "drafting", seriously? Read this
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drag_
(physics) and if you still think it makes a difference in a sport like running then I'll get back to you with some fluid dynamics calculations.
*Oh, and to the moron that tried registered my username "hoothott", nice try but you can't stop me from posting under it.
hoothott wrote:
What's with this crap about leading taking more "mental effort"? It's a freaking foot race -- almost no mental effort involved! Maybe if you were trying to solve differential equations while running...
And "drafting", seriously? Read this
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drag_(physics) and if you still think it makes a difference in a sport like running then I'll get back to you with some fluid dynamics calculations.
*Oh, and to the moron that tried registered my username "hoothott", nice try but you can't stop me from posting under it.
Agreed.
ok, if someone decides to run at their PR pace, then everyone will follow him. even if only one person is trying to run under 12:55, everyone else (that can) will too.