I hereby call going for the "A" standard in the Trials Final "The Ritz-Conley Principle".
I hereby call going for the "A" standard in the Trials Final "The Ritz-Conley Principle".
I second that. Conley did not have to ask others to team up with her, best I can judge from afar. And both made it! But I still think it is a 60% chance we will see some slow running in the final by one and all, darn it! Every time I think it won't happen that way, it does.
Montesquieu wrote:
I hereby call going for the "A" standard in the Trials Final "The Ritz-Conley Principle".
Will Lear has been thinking about this race for too long. He knows the odds are long for him to take too three no matter how he runs. He may not run 3:35, but he will have himself on pace at 800 for sure.
Byers' infamous OT 53 sec opening split was when he was a 19 yr old unknown at Ohio State. What was his PR going in, 3:40 or 3:41. The 3:50 was 5 years later when he was a grown man at his peak. Huge talent, Steve Scott dubbed him crazy. Anyway the OP's premise is pretty obvious, 2nd tier finalists, why not go for a PR in a well paced race rather than going 65 sec for 3 laps and running 10th place in 3:54.
He should go for it. The trials are where dreams can come true or be crushed in a single heart beat. Leer is a tough MF who has a good shot at getting the A and making the team if he goes for it.
the Olympic final might be a last lapper
noi noa rod wrote:
Byers' infamous OT 53 sec opening split was when he was a 19 yr old unknown at Ohio State. What was his PR going in, 3:40 or 3:41. The 3:50 was 5 years later when he was a grown man at his peak. Huge talent, Steve Scott dubbed him crazy. Anyway the OP's premise is pretty obvious, 2nd tier finalists, why not go for a PR in a well paced race rather than going 65 sec for 3 laps and running 10th place in 3:54.
No, that famous Olso race was in 1981. He ran his 3:50 in 1982. He was in the 3:3x (mid) for a few years before this 1981 race...
Far from a PB
It's like you guys never ran a 1500m on the track... Or you guys are just trolling...
I think Jordan McNamara will push the pace and make it an honest race but finish a heartbreaking 4th. Will Leer will hold back,won't have enough at the end and cry to the people on flotrack.
Two things:
First of all this is not "a classic case of prisoner's dilemma". It's not prisoner's dilemma at all. In PD none of the players know what the others are going to do, or have done until the end of the game. In the Olympic Trials ALL of the competitors will know in real time exactly what the others are doing. No dilemma here at all. They have no other choice but to make the mark today.
If you really want to talk game theory then here is how I proposed Alan Webb run the 2004 OT 1500. Since Webb was the only one to have an A qualifier in 2004 all he had to do was to make sure the first 300m was slow enough that no one in the field could make up the time over the last three laps. I said that he could even walk off the track and eat a hot dog if that happened.
In that race the first 300 went exactly as prescribed with Webb jumping to the front then putting on the brakes and hitting the 400 at 59.1, making it next to impossible for anyone to make the A mark. Webb continued to controll the slow from front until just before the 800m mark, but instead of getting a hot dog and sitting down to watch the rest of the race; Webb, knowing that he had a free-roll, made his epic mindfv
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EyGQGxgVkMgSecondly, while that video of Byers in Oslo is fun to watch, it has little to do with today's event. A more topical video of Byers might be to dust off the footage of the 1976 OT 1500.That one didn't work out too well for Byers, did it?
fgfg wrote:
the Olympic final might be a last lapper
This is likely to be the case, and if all the favorites already have the "A" why not just allow the race to form in an organic fashion just like London is likely to be?
As much as I'd like to see a 3:32 all-out fest, my main hope is that the 3 best medal prospects for London actually finish 1-2-3. If they do it in 3:45-ish, then so be it.
BTW - the last best hope for an "honest" pace in the final was German Fernandez. He's out, so the smart money should be on a more tactical race.
noi noa rod wrote:
Byers' infamous OT 53 sec opening split was when he was a 19 yr old unknown at Ohio State. What was his PR going in, 3:40 or 3:41.
He little history lesson is in order here.
Byers was not an "unknown in 19 yr old 1976". He was a well-known 21 year old. In 1974 he was BOTH the National Junior champ AND the National Senior champ running 3:37 TWICE that year.
> BTW - the last best hope for an "honest" pace in the final was German Fernandez. He's out, so the smart money should be on a more tactical race.
Running fast is a tactic. It is a necessary tactic for those without the A. Running slow is a stupid tactic for those without it. Its a dangerous tactic for those with it. Hayward ain't a velodrome, its _the_ place for US runners to discover themselves.
Woman up! wrote:
> BTW - the last best hope for an "honest" pace in the final was German Fernandez. He's out, so the smart money should be on a more tactical race.
Running fast is a tactic. It is a necessary tactic for those without the A. Running slow is a stupid tactic for those without it. Its a dangerous tactic for those with it. Hayward ain't a velodrome, its _the_ place for US runners to discover themselves.
Does anyone know for a fact that any of the non-A qualifiers have any front-running experience?
It's asking quite a bit to demand that erstwhile drafters suddenly take it upon themselves to push the pace in what is arguably the biggest race of their lives.
J-Mac, narrowly missing that A standard, I think will go for it with or without the help of someone else. I'm willing to bet he did ask one of the other 'A-less' runners to go with him, but who knows if it will work out or not.
The 'A-less' runners would be stupid not to work something out with J-Mac. J-Mac has pacing experience, and can probably click off a 58, 1:27 in his sleep, let Will Leer take over for 400, himself take over with 500 to go and make an extended drive for it.
Will Leer is just one more reason Minnesota is better than wherever you're from. He'll make an honest effort.
Name withheld wrote:
Too bad Matt Scherer isn't in the final.
He is at the trials, so someone at swooshtownUSATF should just tell him he is in the final and then they will have to let him race. Then he could rabbit it for the good of the almighty swoosh.
It's hot outside! wrote:
I think Jordan McNamara will push the pace and make it an honest race but finish a heartbreaking 4th. Will Leer will hold back,won't have enough at the end and cry to the people on flotrack.
Ok, if Jordan "goes for it" alone, without an alliance, and covers the first 400 in 57 and relentlessly continues at the same pace for the next 400, then at least we will immediately know who will come in one of the 3 last spots...
I guess that 30 years of videotapes of 1500m championship races is still not enough to convince people that leading the first 1000m alone never leads to good things...
It's not a simple "go nuts" or "jog and wait" dichotomy.
A couple of 58s, or a 58/59 with a wind-up from 600m out (say 58/59/57 and a 41). Not easy, but not impossible, and setting up a chance at the "A" without committing suicide. It would also test for cracks in one or two of the top guys who have had problems earlier this year.
For guys that have been trying all year to get standard (and have not), I see it as a dichotomy. Perfect pace or bust...
Ask that Ventolin guy...
For Leer, Batty, McNamera, Bayer, Mickowski, and Miller:
there is no point, repeat: NO POINT, to even lacing up the spikes today unless they race for the A. If it goes through 800 in over 2:00, all six of them might as well just step off the track right then and there, because their race for London will already be over.
Race for top three AND < 3:35.5, or don't bother.