I for one can't believe how quickly he has developed in the Steeple. He is long and lean and reminds me a bit of Anders Garderud. Having said that, I think he can dip under 8:10 in London.
My Prediction:
He makes the finals and runs 8:07. That 8:17 looked awful comfortable.
Best of luck to him.
If he runs 8:07 in the final then he might win the thing. The OR is only 8:05. Daegu was won in 8:14 and Bejing was won in 8:10.
I have no idea how international championship steeple races are run, but does Jager have a shot at a medal? He looked so damn in control during his 8:17. I think he definitely makes the final though.
8:11.11 Good for third!
Steeplelover wrote:
"What will Evan Jager run in London?"
I think he'll run the steeplechase.
He will not medal but a top ten finish is possible. Kenya will not give up a single medal. They have multiple guys who can go sub 8. Kipruto and Koech have run a 7:53. Jager is not as good as you think it is just that American steepling is awful. It would be good for him to run in Monaco and get his ass kicked by some real competition so he is mentally prepared for the games.
I predict the semifinal is tactical and Jager doesn't make the final, running 8:24 and looking confused afterward.
I hope the semifinal is tactical and Jager runs his own race and makes the final with an 8:18, then runs a very respectable 8:11 for eight place in the final.
Quenton Cassidamius wrote:
He will not medal but a top ten finish is possible. Kenya will not give up a single medal. They have multiple guys who can go sub 8. Kipruto and Koech have run a 7:53. Jager is not as good as you think it is just that American steepling is awful. It would be good for him to run in Monaco and get his ass kicked by some real competition so he is mentally prepared for the games.
American steepling isnt awful as you think, either. We do have five of the top 25 in the world this year. American Steepling is better than everywhere but Kenya really. Though we arent top heavy at all like France or Morocco or Ethiopia,...once you get to 10 and 15 deep, The U.S. has more depth. we just lack those one or two sub 8:15 guys, so far, that France and Morocco and Ethiopia and Uganda have.
For 8:30 or better, Kenya has 21 guys (12 under 8:12, 12 of the top 15 overall, but only 3 of them get to run at the olypmics) The U.S. has 11, Spain has 7, Morocco has 6, Ethiopia and Russia have 3, Uganda and France have 2. To medal Jager probably needs to run around 8:08 to 8:10 or so...which he might be able to do. It is hard to tell. He did look easy at 8:17.
I doubt 8:07 Oly record last through the semi's in London.
'For 8:30 or better, Kenya has 21 guys'
You could treble that if the ones back home got the chance on a decent track away from altitude
Evan could make the final, then do well if he has the bottle to get up there. Even in slow championship races the US/ Euro runners seem sacred to get near the front sometimes
These are the medal times from Olympics and WCs the past 20 years:
2011: 8:14.85, 8:16.05, 8:16.09
2009: 8:00.43, 8:00.89, 8:01.18
2008: 8:10.34, 8:10.49, 8:11.01
2007: 8:13.82, 8:16.94, 8:17.59
2005: 8:13.31, 8:14.95, 8:15.30
2004: 8:05.81, 8:06.11, 8:06.94
2003: 8:04.39, 8:05.11, 8:09.09
2001: 8:15.16, 8:16.21, 8:16.59
2000: 8:21.43, 8:21.77, 8:22.15
1999: 8:11.76, 8:12.09, 8:12.73
1997: 8:05.84, 8:06.04, 8:06.04
1996: 8:07.12, 8:08.33, 8:11.28
1995: 8:04.16, 8:09.30, 8:12.95
1993: 8:06.36, 8:07.53, 8:08.78
1992: 8:08.84, 8:09.55, 8:10.74
Last year Kemboi started at the back and the three Kenyans didn't really go to the lead til the last lap then Kemboi took off and played around the last 50. If Kemboi gets to run, I'd expect the London times to be under 8.
7:59 and wows the world as the Kenyans are overthrown by the rock star American
I say Jager is good for 8:12 but doesn't quite make the final.
I don't know if Jager is tough enough to win or medal or make the final. Sure he's super talented and runs well when he's relaxed but he hasn't shown that he's that tough.
I think he has a shot at the final, just because he doesn't seem to have run a lot of races so far.
I confess I'm more interested to see whether Cabral can run well in London, at the end of a looooong season.
how will Jager respond when the gun goes off and one of the Kenyans runs a 62 second lap? We know he is talented but he is so unseasoned. I am looking forward to watching him race and won't dare predict anything for him. I doubt our other runners will advance.
splits form 2011 - Daegu
2:47
5:33
8:14, 8:16, 8:16, 8:17, 8:18, 8:18
splits from 2009 - Beijing
2:41
5:22
8:00, 8:00, 8:01, 8:01, 8:12, 8:12, 8:12
splits from 2008 - Beijing
2:47
5:34
8:10, 8:10, 8:11, 8:13, 8:14, 8:16, 8:16, 8:16
splits from 2007 - Osaka
2:52
5:37
8:13, 8:17, 8:17, 8:19, 8:20, 8:22
8:12. Finalist. Bottom half of the final as that many guys around him at that pace will ruffle him (understandably so).
To whoever said US steeplechasing is so bad, perhaps you should check how many "A" standards the US had this year. Now check how many other countries had that many. US steeplechasing is pretty solid right now.
2004 olympic race - good one.
hopefully evan jager is studying this thread.
The Steeple is rarely a tactical affair, and I agree with most poster that he can likely hit somewhere from 8:07 to 8:12 after the rounds. I say he'll be in the hunt with a couple laps to go, but he's not going to take it home, and will place somewhere from 5th to 9th.
The recurring thought I've had the last few days, is this is a very decent men's team, and the women's team could have been quite good as well if Simpson and Pierce chose the Steeple.