Does Galen Rupp really have a good chance at a medal in the Olympics?

I think right now Rupp is a legitimate contender for a medal. But we don't know what will happen between now and London. Does Rupp stay this fit until then? Does he get even fitter? What about the other contenders? Look at how much Bekele has improved over the last month. All it takes is for another few guys to raise the level of their game, too, and Rupp is out of it. I wish Rupp well, but I feel like he's looking at 4-5 place, and Ritz more like 7-8th, maybe 10-12 second behind Rupp.

Aghast wrote:

The results of the 10k will be:

1. Bekele

2. Mo

3. T. Bekele

4. Geb Geb

...

6: Rupp

Thank you. Always good to see another student of the sport.

livelikeaballer wrote:

Merga and Jeilan won't be there. The list of guys who won't be there is long enough that he has as good a chance as any number of other guys who will be there.

I would say that he has as good a chance to medal as any number of other guys who will NOT be there.

Aghast wrote:

The results of the 10k will be:

1. Bekele

2. Mo

3. T. Bekele

4. Geb Geb

...

6: Rupp

This is a realistic outcome. Mo could manage to slip past Bekele, but probably not. I could see it go any way between Tariku and Gebremeriam. And if Rupp has a phenomenal day he coud sneak in and beat one of them, but probably not. So I could see Rupp finish in the 4-7 range with a good race, but I think one of the Ethiopians would have to fall apart for him to medal, and that would be somewhat uncharacteristic of them.

Bekele IS juicing. Get over it! And go back to hoemschool.

I my opinion, Galen has seemed way more relaxed in his last few races than he has since he left college. I also think that training with Farah has help him greatly. After watching the Pre Classic where he and Mo made the big surge/kick with the last lap to go, there is not doubt that Rupp has the ability to hang with most of these kickers now then when he did at bejing.

I say if he is able to get comfortable and work with/off of Mo at the olympics, he has a good chance.

I LOVE COLLEGE wrote:

And go back to hoemschool[sic].

We have a genius in our midst.

Aghast wrote:

The results of the 10k will be:

1. Bekele

2. Mo

3. T. Bekele

4. Geb Geb

...

6: Rupp

Yeah, 6 is the number that keeps coming to my mind.

1-3 Kenya

4-6 Ethiopia

7-9 Other Africans

10 Levins

11 Rupp or other white guy

my two cents wrote:

...

I say if he is able to get comfortable and work with/off of Mo at the olympics, he has a good chance.

Very hard to imagine anyone actually believing this.

Tell you what. Watch this Olympics. Then, when you see Rupp get 6th, (a fantastic result, by the way), try to place the race in your memory for at least four years so that in 2016 you will not be posting that "Rupp (or some other American) has a good chance."

Lets say he has the best chance of getting a medal among the American born distance runners.

Rupp will be in about 26:30-26:35 shape. We don't know how sharp he will be. It's a stretch to say that he'll get a medal, but I could see him being right there. It really depends on how the race unfolds. If he and Mo can keep it controlled and not let the crazy Africans, who will invariably drop a couple of 60 sec laps in the middle of the race, get too far in front, I think he could close fast and get on the podium. I also think Ritz will close the gap between he and Rupp if he stays healthy.

He has an outside chance as do some Kenyans and some Ethiopians it will be a great race to watch. The only people who are sure they will get a medal are KB and Mo. Everybody else is just hoping the race works out in their favor.

This is the big reason Rupp doesn't win a medal. There is Mo Farah + 3 Ethiopians + 3 Kenyan competitors. The Amazing thing about Rupp is that I think he can beat 2,3 maybe even 4 out of these seven competitors. But to medal he has to beat out 5. Or to look at it another way, its next to impossible for Rupp to beat Farah. Therefore to medal Rupp has to beat either the entire Kenyan or the entire Ethiopian team. And that is just assuming for the moment there are no other serious rivals from the rest of the world.

Question! wrote:

And it seems some "unknown" east african comes out of nowhere every year.

An interesting question though, is with the Ethiopians and Kenyans each having three runners to employ team tactics, to what extent may Mo and Rupp work with one another? This depends on how the race unfolds, of course.

I think everyone's missing the opportunity Rupp has with Farah in the race. Everyone on this thread is chalking mo up to score a medal, so if this is likely, then is it crazy to think that a super fit rupp can't work with his training partner, hang on to his coattails and swoop in for a bronze (or better)?

I just know in college races it usually helps me if one of my teammates are also in the race. Now granted, I'm not trying to compare the olympics to a college race, but racing is racing, and having one of your boys out there in the fray can only help. You key off each other, and more importantly it builds your confidence during the race. If I see my buddy make a big move, I'm like, "I know he's not running away from me in practice, I can cover that". Hopefully Rupp can do the same.

Not only that, but Ritz is also rounding into shape. The three of them (Ritz, Rupp, Farah) can work together like a team to counter the Ethiopian team tactics. If you don't think Salazar already has them practicing a plan, then you're naive.

I would be shocked if Ritz made it anywhere near Rupp and Farah's level, but he did something similar in 2009. I wouldn't count him out.

You guys are giving the Kenyans too much credit. Rupp is just as good as any of them. The Ethiopians are better, but I think at least one of them will blow up running the pace for Bekele. Rupp just has to have a very good day and he will be right there.

And if he is there during the kick and loses out over the last 200m, he is 200m closer than he was last year, which would be a good improvement.

Rupp beat Merga over 5000 in Birmingham to finish 2nd behind Mo Farah in his old PR of 13:06. I expect it to be K. Bekele, Farah, and T. Bekele in London.

Both Rupp and Ritz have done the 6th & 7th in the 09 and 11 world championships. Rupp has made a huge leap and is without a doubt a medal contender. How could he not? He's beaten Bekele. What more do you need to be convinced? Perhaps if he beats Lagat in the 5000? It'll be a good test to see if he can pull off a 56 or better final lap. If he doesn't nail it, he still has a good amount of time to sharpen for the big one.

Kenny B is going to be obviously tough. But he's also shown that he's human and beatable. I believe at some point, Rupp will have a brilliant day and beat his training partner Mo. Perhaps in the Olympic final! Wilson Kiprop and Tariku Bekele are certainly a concern. But if they beat Rupp and he gets 5th-6th it would be a huge disappointment. But if Rupp got 3rd, I would not be surprised at all. The safe bet is perhaps 4th, but come on man, support your countryman. Rupp for 3rd or better!