Alan Webb Has NO CHANCE At Sub 13:30 On Saturday

ventolin^3 wrote:

Clifford N Clavin wrote:No, Ventolin, when Rupp ran his 3:34.75 he was in 27:00 shape, NOT 26:48.

even 3'34.75/27'00 ->

7'30.2

12'55.6

faster than derisory 7'32 "ceiling"

I've already stated that 12:55 is Rupp's ceiling. Some of you need to get some education about ceilings. Is there a reason that every one of these threads morphs into a discussion of Galen Rupp? Alan Webb's ceiling at 5000m WAS as high as Galen Rupp's. That ceiling has been caving in, and Rupp's is showing a little sag here and there, too.

Who really cares about Webb and a 5K? More importantly, why do so many letsrun idiots let a troll goad them into creating a 3 page thread?

Clifford V Clavin wrote:I've already stated that 12:55 is Rupp's ceiling

& it's nonsense

evening out his 12'58 gets him down to 12'55 already

that doesn't factor in unambitious pace of only 12'55 target beforehand or buffeting winds which went upto -2.6 on some recordings

ceiling was helluva lot quicker than 12'55 in eugene

Some of you need to get some education about ceilings

no

you need to learn about what true ceilings are

Alan Webb's ceiling at 5000m WAS as high as Galen Rupp's

no

webb was not destined to be a 12'50 guy when he was going 1'43/3'46

he had speed characteristics then

That ceiling has been caving in, and Rupp's is showing a little sag here and there, too.

nonsense

he's just gone 12'58

what sag ???

10/10

Alan Webb COULD have run 12:55 and 27:15 at one point if he had trained for it. Those days are gone. Rupp's ceiling at 5000m is 12:55. Could I make myself any clearer? All of your excuses about Eugene are b.s. Rupp just followed along and the race went almost perfectly for him. Races are NOT perfect, so please stop trying to pretend that they EVER will be.

Clifford V Clavin wrote:

Alan Webb COULD have run 12:55 and 27:15 at one point if he had trained for it. Those days are gone. Rupp's ceiling at 5000m is 12:55. Could I make myself any clearer? All of your excuses about Eugene are b.s. Rupp just followed along and the race went almost perfectly for him. Races are NOT perfect, so please stop trying to pretend that they EVER will be.

So are you saying that races will ALWAYS be imperfect? Do you not understand the concept of running even splits? Also this:

Galen Rupp Will NOT Break 13 Minutes at Pre

Galen Rupp Will NOT Break 13 Minutes at Pre

Galen Rupp Will NOT Break 13 Minutes at Pre

Galen Rupp Will NOT Break 13 Minutes at Pre

Galen Rupp Will NOT Break 13 Minutes at Pre

Galen Rupp Will NOT Break 13 Minutes at Pre

Galen Rupp Will NOT Break 13 Minutes at Pre

Galen Rupp Will NOT Break 13 Minutes at Pre

Galen Rupp Will NOT Break 13 Minutes at Pre

Galen Rupp Will NOT Break 13 Minutes at Pre

Galen Rupp Will NOT Break 13 Minutes at Pre

Galen Rupp Will NOT Break 13 Minutes at Pre

Galen Rupp Will NOT Break 13 Minutes at Pre

Galen Rupp Will NOT Break 13 Minutes at Pre

Galen Rupp Will NOT Break 13 Minutes at Pre

Galen Rupp Will NOT Break 13 Minutes at Pre

Galen Rupp Has NO CHANCE At Lagat's 2 Mile AR

Galen Rupp Has NO CHANCE At Lagat's 2 Mile AR

Galen Rupp Has NO CHANCE At Lagat's 2 Mile AR

Galen Rupp Has NO CHANCE At Lagat's 2 Mile AR

Galen Rupp Has NO CHANCE At Lagat's 2 Mile AR

Galen Rupp Has NO CHANCE At Lagat's 2 Mile AR

Galen Rupp Has NO CHANCE At Lagat's 2 Mile AR

Galen Rupp Has NO CHANCE At Lagat's 2 Mile AR

Galen Rupp Has NO CHANCE At Lagat's 2 Mile AR

Galen Rupp Has NO CHANCE At Lagat's 2 Mile AR

Galen Rupp Has NO CHANCE At Lagat's 2 Mile AR

Galen Rupp Has NO CHANCE At Lagat's 2 Mile AR

Galen Rupp Has NO CHANCE At Lagat's 2 Mile AR

Galen Rupp Will NOT Break 3:37 Tonight

Galen Rupp Will NOT Break 3:37 Tonight

Galen Rupp Will NOT Break 3:37 Tonight

Galen Rupp Will NOT Break 3:37 Tonight

Gelen Rupp Will NOT Break 3:37 Tonight

Galen Rupp Will NOT Break 3:37 Tonight

Galen Rupp Will NOT Break 3:37 Tonight

Galen Rupp Will NOT Break 3:37 Tonight

Galen Rupp Will NOT Break 3:37 Tonight

Galen Rupp Will NOT Break 3:37 Tonight

Gelen Rupp Will NOT Break 3:37 Tonight

Galen Rupp Will NOT Break 3:37 Tonight

idea guy wrote:

Clifford V Clavin wrote:

Alan Webb COULD have run 12:55 and 27:15 at one point if he had trained for it. Those days are gone. Rupp's ceiling at 5000m is 12:55. Could I make myself any clearer? All of your excuses about Eugene are b.s. Rupp just followed along and the race went almost perfectly for him. Races are NOT perfect, so please stop trying to pretend that they EVER will be.

So are you saying that races will ALWAYS be imperfect? Do you not understand the concept of running even splits? Also this:

Yes, races, like life are NEVER perfect. Even splits? No, splits are NEVER perfectly even. You must educate yourself.

he was almost certainly in 27'20 - 27'25 shape when he tt'ed alternate laps with ritz in little more than a training run in his 27'34, so 27'15 is no stretch of the imagination

off that, he certainly couda gone 12'55 - 13'00, but we are talking 1'43/3'46 days, which is all he/we were interested in

he looked in 1'43.5 shape that day as pace went out oo quick & i'm sure he'd have preferred slower 1st lap & come back compensatorily quicker & that 3'46.9 was again unambitious, as he "only" had to chase 3'47.69 & pace was set up for that - i have no doubt if he was chasing a 3'46.5-mid AR, he'd have lived with the sustained quicker pace

prelim line of fit for him that short era of ~

47.4 / 1'43.5 -> 2'12.9 , 3'28.9 , 3'45.9 , 7'30.4 , 13'10.7 , 28'10.1

he woudn't have got close to 28'00 in his 800/mile pb short era & well outside 13'00

drivel

deeper analysis is clearly not your strength

let me explain it to you :

if 2'35 paced is asked to 3k, expecting 12'55 finish, why on earth expect anything much better than 12'55 as finish time ???

yes, a peak kennster coud turn a 7'45 split into a 12'50, but no one is claiming rupp is peak kennster, so 12'50 off 2'35 pace to 3k is not possible for rupp

he woud need 2'34 pace to 3k & yes, he is capable of sustaining that for 2 more k

& does your brain not understand the physics concept that the most efficient energy expenditure is with 0 wind ???

NOT something approaching 2.6 in one stretch & -2.6 one another + pushing/pulling to kerb on the bends ??

no

12'55 pre-planned pace beforehand to 3k put a strong cap on his time that day - it wouda taken peak-kennster ability to get that down to 12'50 - & that's with 0 wind

no

but anyone with a brain/experience seeing -2.6 for reese's lj knew this was not going to be a night for fast 5ks & doubly so when pace asked was "only" 12'55 for 3k

asking 0 wind & laps not varying more than 1s to 3k & maybe even upto 11.5 laps is not something we shoud only expect once every few years

Clifford V Clavin wrote:

I've already stated that 12:55 is Rupp's ceiling.

So what is Rupp's 10000 ceiling?

Ventolin, you are once again living in la la land. This is where you're most comfortable. So IF Rupp could have run 12:50 with perfect conditions in Eugene, I guess Farah could have run 12:48, or even faster since he did more of the work. This is truly amusing. You don't understand Farah's ceiling, either. Farah's ceiling is 12:50, and he was NOT capable of 12:50 in Eugene. I am getting bored with all of these futile attempts at teaching you morons.

Clifford V Clavin wrote:

Yes, races, like life are NEVER perfect. Even splits? No, splits are NEVER perfectly even. You must educate yourself.

I never said that it was possible to run PERFECTLY even splits. I was talking about the increase in efficiency that can be had by attempting to run them for each 1000m. Of course that concept probably flew over your head. I bet you were one of those guys in high school who would run a 60 first 400m then finish with the astounding time of 12:00 only to go home and cry yourself to sleep.

moron

mo may be capable of 12'48 currently, but last year he maya been capable of sub-12'45

he ran 12'53pb with 53 last lap, which just that evened out gives 12'49

factoring in uneveness of rest of the 11.5 laps, that wouda got him 12'46/12'47

then you have to add in that that was again an unambitious pace pre-plan of 12'50, when mo was capable of much quicker

if they'd aimed for 12'45 & got it to 3k & mo had kept it going for 5 laps, then we wouda seen 12'45

mo ran 3'33.9 when a 13'07 guy

brit poster suggested 3'30 shape last year which seemed outrageous, but not if you consider 3'33.9/13'07

he maya been last year :

50.9 / 1'47.4 -> 3'30.9 , 4'47.1 , 7'22.8 ! , 12'43.8 ! , 26'37.6

i believe he has peaked last year with losses this year indoors & nothing as magnificent as his 12'53 with a 53+

i'm proferring this as prelim

51.8 / 1'48.9 -> 3'33.2 , 4'49.8 , 7'26.3 , 12'48.2 , 26'42.7

i'm starting to think he had an undisclosed injury over winter/recently which has curtailed his speed, but kept his 10k close to last year, but not quick enough to win if the field aims for 26'30 - 26'35

he still has enough in him to win the 5k, but not if he has had a brutal 10k earlier

Everybody is capable of so much, and yet they achieve so little in comparison. What a disappointing world you must live in, Ventolin. I deal with reality. You, not so much.

Clifford V Clavin wrote:Everybody is capable of so much, and yet they achieve so little in comparison. What a disappointing world you must live in, Ventolin. I deal with reality. You, not so much.

no

kennster/geb/komen/tergat/kipchoge/etc have all achieved upto expectations, which leaves little to quibble about, albeit finishing with a 57 in a 12'37 hints at something quicker

they all had benefit of at least one race in their career where they got excellent pacing/weather & took advantage

mo/rupp have not had that one opportunity

that is the "reality"

Ventolin, if Rupp is in 12:50 shape, then why did he get dropped so easily by Farah as Mo finished his 12:56xx? A 12:50 runner could have at least hung on to Farah despite the allegedly less than perfect pacing or breeze.

he lost by 1.92s which again is difference between 12'48 & 12'50

mo ran 12'56 & if wind/pacing cost him 8s, that gives rupp a 12'50 - check basic arithmetic

also, they are in different training phases

mo has been pre-selected for 5k/10k since daegu & can train as he sees fit for london

rupp has to target the trials which means he won't be training the same as mo, despite being in same camp

it's very possible mo went for a mini "peak" in eugene & somewhat race sharp, whereas i'd have expected rupp to have just trained right thru it - he's aiming for his peak in a coupla weeks NOT in that eugene 5k, no matter how prestigious

rupp very possibly ran that 5k as a training run

Well, then Rupp must not have the confidence in himself that you have in him.

IF Galen Rupp felt he was near 12:50 shape, there is no reason to peak at the U.S. Trials, as anybody in near 12:50 shape would be a virtual lock to make the U.S. team in the 5000 and 10,000m, barring a misfortune of some kind.

Rupp is NOT in 12:50 shape and Mo Farah won the race in Eugene in 12:56, so he MIGHT be in 12:52 shape, as it is always arguable that the winner might have more in the tank. The losers, not likely.

i have great confidence in him

foolish

he has no idea of what shape some of the other guys may be in or what kinda race it may be

he can bet his house bernie will be in 12'50 shape & looks to have great speed with 53 finish in a 3'34

he also knows lomong looks at least sub-13 shape ( no one knows how far below ) in that miscounted last lap race & lomong has superb 1500 speed for a 5k guy

rupp may only be 3rd favourite in a slow race & he damn well better train his socks off if that is current situation

nonsense

everything points to 12'50 & salazar even said he believed so if not for the wind ( & i'd add unambitious pacing )

mo currently has coupla secs over rupp

that gets him to below 12'50

nonsense

you clearly didn't watch '93 5k wc where kirui made long run from home & geb foolishly didn't chase him until last coupla laps where he tore after him but ran out of real estate to catch him

you telling me the geb that won the 10k in that meet, didn't have "more in the tank" ???

ventolin^3 wrote:it's very possible mo went for a mini "peak" in eugene & somewhat race sharp, whereas i'd have expected rupp to have just trained right thru it - he's aiming for his peak in a coupla weeks NOT in that eugene 5k, no matter how prestigious

rupp very possibly ran that 5k as a training run

this raises interesting possibility

rupp ran 3'34.75

( worth 3'34.2 at even pace & he didn't get a full sprint in the stretch as andrews planted himself in front of rupp, leaving rupp no where to go until last few meters when andrews tired

i think he was in high-3'33 shape in a perfect race with no impediments )

it's almost certain rupp was in heavy training block at the time ( oxy 1500 is not a meet you attempt to peak for when you are rupp's calibre )

that woud indicate that he was in this shape off virtually 100% endurance work

the intriguing possibilty is that when he now sharpens up with some speed work he may be 1 - 2s faster come trials/london

rupp may have 3'32 speed ( maybe even 3'31 ) by the time he peaks this year

this is speed which woud make him as competitive as anyone in a slow 5 or 10k